Summary of Best Bets:
Race 4 – Backing No.8 Samarelle (best bet)
Race 7 – Backing No.5 Sirius Legend (best roughie)
Race 2 – Backing No.5 Journeyman (best value)
Turf Talk:
- Rail out +3m the entire circuit.
- Expecting an even track overall, with tempo likely to dictate race outcomes.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Intriguing 1400m contest to kick proceedings off.
There looks to be solid speed up front with (4) Double Vision likely to get the run of the race. He looked to have needed that fresh effort behind the smart winner Gorgeous and subsequent winner Let’s Go Barbie. Key map advantage here and goes on top.
(1) Kokatahi would have been on top but draws very sticky. He looks likely to settle near the rear and will need luck. The big plus is the 3kg claim and rise in trip.
(7) Feminino was good behind Kokatahi last start on the Kensington track, strips fitter and looks well placed second-up.
(3) Bello Cavallo is next best.
Selections:
(4) Double Vision
(1) Kokatahi
(7) Feminino
(3) Bello Cavallo
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
Race of the day on paper, though this may change with some dual acceptances at Kembla Grange on Saturday. Plenty of speed engaged with a massive field of 16 expected.
(1) Buckeye was too bad to be true first-up on the Gold Coast. He strips fitter here and returns to Sydney with the blinkers going on.
I could not be more impressed by the trials of (5) Journeyman. Three smart hit outs and looks fit and forward first-up. The slight query is the 1200m. He may want further.
(4) Hay Street has a strong SP profile and CV, though gate 16 will not make it easy fresh. James booked to offset this.
(7) Splash Of Steel was outstanding on the Gold Coast. Some effort. Wide draw here but the speed will be on for him to close over the top.
(8) Written In Wrath is next best. Some race.
Selections:
(5) Journeyman
(1) Buckeye
(4) Hay Street
(7) Splash Of Steel
(8) Written In Wrath
Suggested Bet: Journeyman WIN
Race 3:
Good race with plenty of last start winners. In the small field it shapes as a tactical affair.
Happy to side with last start winner (8) Asilah. Dominant on debut and has been given a gap between runs.
(4) Decorum would have gone on top if not for the lack of tempo, though he draws well and could settle leaders back if Berry wants.
(6) Little Iris is the sole leader and comes off a smart debut win. Any improvement second up and rising in trip suggests she is the one to gun down.
Selections:
(8) Asilah
(4) Decorum
(6) Little Iris
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
Average speed expected over the 1200m.
Keen to side with the untapped filly (8) Samarelle. She progressed sharply to the Reginald Allen last prep behind Group class Panova when running second. The 13 week break looks to have done her wonders with back to back impressive trials. She finds James and looks a genuine Group level 3YO filly.
The danger is fellow 3YO filly (10) Snitzel Dancer. They met in the Reginald Allen when she pulled up with an issue. She has been kept quiet at the trials but we know she is smart.
(1) Signor Tortoni is the big watch. Poor draw but has tactical speed. Look for him to zip across off a slick recent trial.
(9) Catahoula is next best.
Selections:
(8) Samarelle
(10) Snitzel Dancer
(1) Signor Tortoni
(9) Catahoula
Suggested Bet: Samarelle WIN
Race 5:
Plenty of speed expected up front.
It is hard to go past the locally trained and in form (1) Big Red Tequila. Joe Pride has this mare in career best order and she should relish the fast tempo from the good draw.
(3) Thames looks the danger. Smart recent trial, maps ideally and is another who will be licking their lips at the tempo.
(4) Useapin appeared to resent the crowded nature of her last run. Easier here and should get to the outside.
The consistent (5) Flightcrew is next best.
Selections:
(1) Big Red Tequila
(3) Thames
(4) Useapin
(5) Flightcrew
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
A slightly tricky race to dissect.
(3) Assailant gets a lovely, soft lead second-up, jumping from 1900m straight to 2400m. Typical of the stable, whose runners often improve sharply second-up when rising in trip.
(1) Forbidden Riff maps ideally from barrier 7 and comes off a gritty last start effort. Back to a dry deck is key.
(5) Kureder is a danger. Peak fitness now and finds James McDonald in the saddle.
(7) Lunar Lover is full of confidence deep into the prep after a last start win and stays in the mix.
Selections:
(3) Assailant
(1) Forbidden Riff
(5) Kureder
(7) Lunar Lover
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7:
Cracking way to end the program with plenty of winning chances.
(5) Sirius Legend is a ridiculous price. Loved his recent trials and he should thrive in the solid tempo.
(1) Clancy is the horse to beat. Maps perfectly and can only improve third-up fitness wise.
Not sure what to make of (3) Anthracite. Backed into $2.50 fresh before failing to fire. Keep an eye on the late market.
(10) Concordia Wind savaged the line first-up and the added trip is key.
Selections:
(5) Sirius Legend
(1) Clancy
(3) Anthracite
(10) Concordia Wind
Suggested Bet: Sirius Legend EW
