Summary of best bets:
Best bet – Race 6 No.3 Spywire
Next best – Race 4 No.4 Paradoxium / Race 2 No.2 Daphnes
Best roughie – Race 4 No.1 Belvante
Turf Talk
- Rail True – Expecting a very even track overall, lanes 2+ in the straight will likely be key. Tempo is needed to run on.
Stats that matter:
- Over the past 90 days Alysha Collett is striking at an impressive 26.1% with a positive POT of +69%.
- The Richard Litt stable to follow over the past 90 days up to $10 SP – striking at 28.6% with a positive POT of +96.1%. Effective with runners first, second and third up.
Race 1
Lacklustre start to the program with a very limited BM64 over the 1600m. Kris Lees holds the keys to the contest.
(6) Naughty Nurse goes on top from a lovely gate, smart use of the claim and is suited up to 1600m.
(1) Oakfield Saturn should appreciate the second go at 1600m after the sharp 400m rise third-up; the other positive is the dry deck.
(3) Uncle Harry did a good job last start when winning over 1600m, lacking upside but goes in the mix.
(2) Oakfield Mercury is next best.
Selections:
(6) Naughty Nurse
(1) Oakfield Saturn
(3) Uncle Harry
(2) Oakfield Mercury
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 2
Small but sharp Maiden contest here.
(2) Daphnes was heavily backed first-up at Canterbury after trialling like a rocket; she put in a plain effort. Back to an easier grade here should see her prove hard to beat.
The big market/yard watch is on (3) Michelangelo. Gelded into this prep and has been given a solid hitout in his latest trial.
I expect (5) Lapis Lazuli to improve here second-up with a more positive ride.
Selections:
(2) Daphnes
(3) Michelangelo
(5) Lapis Lazuli
(8) Saveur
Suggested Bet – Daphnes WIN
Race 3
Solid enough speed expected up front here over the 1200m.
Keen to side with the Joe Ible-trained (8) Spice Baby, she has been racing in terrific order in some strong rating races. Up to 1200m is the knock but the gun draw is the big tick.
(1) Confess Our Dreams gets in very light at the weights with the 3kg claim; dry deck, 1200m and an inside draw all read well.
(5) Smiling Prophet has been heavily backed in early markets, smart first up win and must be respected.
(7) Thankful Heart copped a gut-buster first up, easier here and can improve.
Selections:
(8) Spice Baby
(1) Confess Our Dreams
(5) Smiling Prophet
(7) Thankful Heart
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 4
Intriguing edition of the Magic Millions Wyong 2YO Classic. Solid enough speed expected up front over the 1200m.
I love the profile here of (4) Paradoxium, solid debut in the Breeders Plate with strong formlines coming out of the race; back to the trials and looked sharp. The cherry on top is the map.
(1) Belvante has come up ridiculous odds here, very well bred and has trialled smartly.
(5) Seeiaye took out the Max Lees Classic in smart order; 900-1100m is the slight concern though.
(7) Masvingo and (8) Mystical are next best; both have claims as winning chances also.
Selections:
(4) Paradoxium
(1) Belvante
(5) Seeiaye
(7) Masvingo
(8) Mystical
Suggested Bet – Paradoxium WIN / Belvante EW
Race 5
Wide open contest.
I liked the first up win of (6) Northlander, strong late over the 1000m and can only improve.
(10) Cuban Cigar was an eye-catching debutant; 122 days off and was kept very quiet in a recent trial over 800m. The query is the short price.
The market watch fresh is on (7) Vivian’s Express. Loved the way she responded to riding in a recent trial, the right race to kick her off in.
(4) Sunday Tycoon is next best.
Selections:
(6) Northlander
(10) Cuban Cigar
(7) Vivian’s Express
(4) Sunday Tycoon
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 6
The second of the features is for the 3yo & 4yo gallopers.
(3) Spywire looks hard to beat here second-up off the back of a career peak fresh at Kembla. The form has been franked with Hawker Hall winning since; he strips fitter and gets the gun run from the draw.
The only danger is (2) King Of Roseau, OK first-up but should improve off the heavy track run. My knock is the draw, he will need a lot of luck.
(9) O’ Ole is the query, vetted prior to the first up clash before failing to make inroads. We will lean on the market late.
(4) The Three Hundred has trialled up well on two occasions, 1200m suits with the booking of Clark key.
Selections:
(3) Spywire
(2) King Of Roseau
(9) O’ Ole
(4) The Three Hundred
Suggested Bet – Spywire WIN
Race 7
No real speed to report up front over the 2100m to round out the program.
(3) Craft should get a very soft lead up front; the hungry Amy McLucas is in the saddle and is a particularly good front-running jockey.
(6) Rhinestone Lad comes right into the mix now with plenty of scratchings. Consistent recent form and now get the in-form Alysha Collett in the saddle over the suited 2100m.
(5) Wittelsbach peaks third up and has been very well supported in betting, second go at 32100m now and can only improve fitness-wise here, the one to beat.
Selections:
(3) Craft
(6) Rhinestone Lad
(5) Wittelsbach
(7) Gatchan
Suggested Bet – No Bet
