Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Blue Diamond Stakes using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s race.
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In The Lab | Blue Diamond Stakes | Group 1 2yo 1200m
The track – unique features of Caulfield 1200m course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Rail True. Cloud clearing. Good 4
- On pacers have an advantage at Caulfield with a win strike rate of 10.8%
- Backmarkers are losing at 17% POT
- Lane 2 is performing best with a 3% POT. Coming wider than lane 4 is very difficult
Speed map & tempo:
The tempo appears solid with a number of on-speed runners engaged:
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- Jamie Mott rides Zambales for the first time
- Robbie Griffiths & William Pike are striking at 20% with a ROI of 122.3%
- Ciaron Maher & Thomas Stockdale have a healthy ROI of 37.6%
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Blue Diamond Stakes. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried, margin spread and race quality.
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 22/2/25 | Devil Night 2C | 57.0kg | 0.1L | 100.7 |
| 24/2/24 | Hayasugi 2F | 55.0kg | 0.2L | 99.2 |
| 25/2/23 | Little Brose 2C | 57.0kg | 1.0L | 102.2 |
| 26/2/22 | Daumier 2C | 57.0kg | 0.1L | 101.1 |
| 20/2/21 | Artorius 2C | 57.0kg | 0.75L | 102..1 |
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Blue Diamond Stakes:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win.
| Weight | Rating |
| 57kg | 100.9 |
| 55kg | 99.3 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below.
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price.
The verdict and betting strategy:
Capacity field of sixteen runners in the $2m Blue Diamond Stakes. Speed will be genuine with a few on-speed runners – Closer To Free & I Am Aria most likely to settle 1-2 however there are a few horses capable of leading. Looking at the lead-up runs I’m happy to say that the Blue Diamond Prelude C&G form appears the strongest indicator. Closer To Free, Guest House and Eternal Warrior all ran solidly however the runs from Guest House (sitting three wide, no cover) and Eternal Warrior (getting back from a wide gate and running on) stood out. Unit Five brings a different formline and knows how to win but seems skinny enough. Chayan not the worst chance after a strong debut effort. Cracking race!
Suggested Bet:
Guest House (WIN)
Eternal Warrior (WIN)
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
