Will Elford is back with the latest edition of Weekend at Bot’s, using Form King data to assess how the races were run, what level of performance they produced and which horses are worth following out of Caulfield.
How to read the ratings
Throughout Weekend at Bot’s, you’ll see Form King data used to break down how each race was run and the level of performance produced.
Here’s a quick guide to the key metrics:
- LD-S-8: Leader from the start to the 800m.
- LD-8-4: Leader from the 800m to the 400m.
- LD-4-F: Leader from the 400m to the finish.
- WNR-4-F: Winner from the 400m to the finish.
- WFA: Overall performance rating on a Weight-For-Age scale.
- WTS: The winner’s final rating at the weights carried.
How the track played – David Pfundt (Form King)
Winds were 25-35kmh Westerly and did look to have an impact on times.
There was a very noticeable fast/slow track speed spread across the meeting from the early to late sections. The track was Good to Fast and 5 of the 7 Circle races recorded winner times inside the top 10 times since 2012. The Might And Power was a track record, and the Toorak ran the fastest time since 2012. On the Circle, 9/21 place-getters and 4/7 winners were fence in run or outside the leader.
The Chute races saw 4/9 place-getters and 1/3 winners in that same position – no obvious pattern. Winners came from everywhere in the run, and off all tempos. 2 leaders and 2 x OSL won, plus 3 back-markers. Lanes 2-7 in the straight accounted for all winners on the day, but that’s typical of Good to Fast Caulfield. I’m saying a very fair track, or as fair as Caulfield can play.
Race 1
LD-S-8: -6.4L | LD-8-4: +2.1L | LD-4-F: +0.9L | WNR-4-F: +2.2L | WTS: 90.3 | WFA: 89.9
Jimmysstar’s younger brother, In’kantosstar, extended his winning streak to four in the first race of the Caulfield Cup carnival.
The pace was not as fast as it seemed. Just Desserts led and In’kantosstar followed, with quite a gap between them and the rest of the field. To be quite honest, there were some ordinary rides from the riders behind the two leaders, allowing two horses that started inside 4/1 to create as much separation as they did.
There were three lengths between Just Desserts, who raced to the 1200-metre point more than seven lengths behind par, and Regal Lion, who was third.
The speed increased thereafter, but the race had already been won and lost through the first half. In’kantosstar settled well behind the leader and raced past him at the furlong pole.
Racing on pace is a skill, so perhaps In’kantosstar and Just Desserts will be favoured again, but they were rather flattered by the structure of the race. I’d lean on the side of caution when assessing the two of them in their respective coming starts.
In’kantosstar is continuously improving and is lightly raced, so he’s certainly not reached the ceiling of his ability. Though I doubt he is much better than this grade, and certainly not in the same stratosphere as his older brother.
Foujita San was outstanding. Of course, he’s not as good as he once was, but in recent times, he is close to his peak. There’s a BM80 race on Cup Day over 2000 metres. He can be well thought of in that.
Race 2
LD-S-8: +0.8L | LD-8-4: +0.9L | LD-4-F: 0L | WNR-4-F: +2.2L | WTS: 90.9 | WFA: 95.2
James McDonald didn’t take long to make an impression on Guineas Day, riding Sequinned to an easy two-and-a-half-length win. She can be rather headstrong, by all accounts, and that was to be seen during the race. She was a little free, perhaps less than it appeared due to her high head carriage, but McDonald allowed her to settle three-wide and build through her gears. In essence, racing wide might have aided her, giving her room to do her thing.
The pace was solid from the 1000 metres onwards, and she quickened well upon reaching the 400 metres. With a rating of 95.2, she would not win the Coolmore Stakes, but she certainly would not look out of place making up the numbers. The Red Anchor is a far better option, though, in a fortnight, and I would assume James McDonald will retain the ride.
Napoleonic won the Red Anchor last year with 97.6, Bittercreek 94.2 in 2024, Archo Narcho with 95.2 in 2023, and Sejardon with 95.3 in 2022.
So, she’s already good enough to win a typical Red Anchor without having to improve, and she can improve too.
Race 3
LD-S-8: -1.9L | LD-8-4: +3.9L | LD-4-F: +0.3L | WNR-4-F: +0.8L | WTS: 97.1 | WFA: 97.1
Surfin’ Bird has raced upwards of 1400 metres five times and has won on all five occasions. Quite a record.
Her ratings in those five are as follows:
- 1600m – G3 – 97.1 (10/10/26)
- 1600m – OPN – 94.9 (06/06/26)
- 1440m – BM70 – 97.4 (15/10/25)
- 1600m – BM70 – 91.1 (20/08/25)
- 1550m – BM64 – 88.2 (25/07/25)
On Saturday, Surfin’ Bird essentially equalled the peak figure she ran at the Wednesday meeting of this carnival last year, with a rating of 97.1. She was at Savitri’s girth throughout the race and eventually claimed her at the 300-metre mark, racing strongly through the line after sustaining good speed from the 1000 metres.
SURFIN’ BIRD 🏄♀️
Another strong win at Caulfield for Gai and Adrian’s talented mare!
@JChilds47 @GaiWaterhouse1 https://t.co/MBoABbJavF
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 10, 2026
The pace wasn’t especially quick through the first section; many were content with finding their positions behind the two leaders. The pace was at its fiercest between the 800 and 200 metres, and the best two mares cleared away from the pack. Perhaps On Display can lay claim to being as good on her day, but she was well beaten on Saturday. She was slow to begin and was in an unwinnable position toward the rear. She was eight lengths faster than par between the 1000 and 400 metres. Due to the nature of the race and where the pace was allocated, she tried to improve her position when the pace was at its strongest and had no chance. She was beaten five lengths, but her performance was better than that. That was through her own undoing, however.
The market identified the pace forecast well and established that On Display would be toward the rear, and she was unwanted in the latter stages of betting, starting $6.00 on the exchange.
Savitri was very well backed and began the decisive favourite, starting shorter on the exchange than with corporates. She can be well thought of at her next start; she is improving. She was well beaten, but nonetheless, this was the second-best run of her short career.
Perhaps Surfin’ Bird will be thrown into the Empire Rose next start. I doubt she is quite good enough to win that, but she deserves her place.
Race 4
LD-S-8: +0.8L | LD-8-4: +0.6L | LD-4-F: +0.2L | WNR-4-F: +6.4L | WTS: 98.3 | WFA: 95.8
Pinhole booked his place in Saturday’s Caulfield Cup, but by all accounts, will not take his place and will be targeted toward the Melbourne Cup.
That’s a pretty good idea, I think. He can win the Melbourne Cup.
Aeliana is seemingly unlikely to take her place in the Cup, which is a travesty, by the way, but if she’s not there, he’s close to top seed for the locally trained runners. I’m not entirely sure of his place in order of entry after Saturday, and he may have to win the Bendigo or Geelong Cup to ensure a place in the race, but he can. I’m rather confident that a locally trained runner will not be winning the Melbourne Cup, though; the local front is quite weak, and it seems the international one is not.
Nonetheless, a chance!
Before I begin talking about pace and stuff, may I just say, feature mile-and-a-half races are so, so good. There’s nothing quite like them, and I wish we had more of them. It’s a great shame we don’t.
This was an absolute belter of a race, although I probably wouldn’t be saying that if Suntora knocked me off on Pinhole and Knight’s Choice.
Viva la stayers.
Now to the pace. Campoldinho tore through the first half of the race.
There was approximately fifteen lengths between first and last at the halfway point. Now, the pace wasn’t as fast as it seemed visually, and those toward the rear reached the 1200 metres well behind par. They were somewhat fortunate that Campoldinho and Machine Gun Gracy had a bad day.
The race was on at the 600 metres, and Pinhole finished full of running to nab Suntora on the wire. He will certainly stay two miles, and I believe he will improve for it. Of course, James McDonald will not ride, and he certainly had a part to play in Pinhole winning the race, but he will be toward the bottom of the weights and does have a chance in the Cup.
Shockletz did not wear blinkers, and she will wear them in the Cup.
She was great from an unwinnable position, finishing well. I think Pinhole has a better chance than her on the first Tuesday of November, though.
It’s great to see Soulcombe racing so well after three years on the sidelines, and he must be something like favourite to win the Queen Elizabeth Stakes on Stakes Day.
Race 5
LD-S-8: -4.1L | LD-8-4: +0.6L | LD-4-F: -1.6L | WNR-4-F: +2.3L | WTS: 96.1 | WFA: 97.2
Point Barrow was again too good for Bridal Waltz, and again, did not start favourite.
This race was very much over after 400 metres. Luke Nolen went much too slow through the first half of the race aboard Bridal Waltz and didn’t create any separation between the field. Point Barrow was just three lengths from the lead and was not forced to exert any energy to get there. Once they straightened, the race was over bar the shouting, and Point Barrow overhauled the field with her customary turn of speed.
She in fact rated down from last start, but perhaps that was just circumstantial. She won so easily, she did not need to reach for reserves. The Champions Sprint is now the aim with her, by my understanding, and she can certainly win it. It all comes down to whether Tempted makes the trek south. The Sydney sprint series has very much ruined the Champions Sprint, and we mightn’t have a top-notch field. So, if the required winning rating is just 101–102, that’s within reach for her.
Race 6
LD-S-8: +0.6L | LD-8-4: +0.1L | LD-4-F: +0.9L | WNR-4-F: +0.9L | WTS: 101.6 | WFA: 101.6
Jigsaw very much picked up where he left off, returning with a figure of 101.6 in the Schillaci.
He controlled the pace from the lead, which was to be expected, racing at a very well-managed pace throughout. Logan Bates has done a tremendous job with the horse and has confirmed his status as a future top-line rider. There’s an art to riding leaders, and my goodness, Bates has got it so very right on so many occasions aboard his best mate, Jigsaw.
He will run in the McEwen on Cox Plate Day next start, a race he won last year, and will have an excellent chance. Interestingly, he will race down the straight for just the third time in his career.
He’s an absolute champion, this horse. He made his debut as a two-year-old at Geelong, beating Artorius on debut, was beaten by Anamoe at start two, and while they’re off shagging, he’s still here, racing as well as ever. Champion by my measure.
Race 7
LD-S-8: +6.5L | LD-8-4: -0.2L | LD-4-F: -7.2L | WNR-4-F: -7.2L | WTS: 102.9 | WFA: 102.9
If ever there needed to be an example of how hard racing is, the Might And Power might be the best there is.
Horse racing is as hard as it is good, which is why it is the greatest game of all.
Now, to make sense of it.
Dave Pfundt said this, which I think explains it very well.
“Torranzino (2nd up) equalled his last prep 2nd up rating (within 0.1, rating 88.3 at WFA).”
“Kingswood equalled his Heatherlie Stakes rating with 100, that’s as good as he goes.
“Birdman, while perhaps disappointing, ran 100.6, his 3rd best Aus rating.
“Treasurethe Moment has now not passed the 100 rating mark in her last 8 runs. This is some worry for her future as a Group 1 WFA contender.
“Sheza Alibi ran 102.5 while being 8.5L off the leader at the 800m.
“It’s 2.3L down on her last start and 1.3L down on her 1st up rating.
“But I don’t think she could have done any more.
“Land Legend was going strongly, and while the raw time says he went super fast, I’m saying his to 600m split time was about 7 lengths flattered by the 25-35kmh Westerly wind being behind him. Take that out and he’s gone strongly, and just sucked the sprint out of everything. All of the chasers were just too far back, and their ratings are probably 1-2 “lengths” pessimistic from what I feel the merit of their runs was (bar Kingswood).
“I don’t know (or care) how the Maher stable get their horses to peak like this, but what I will say is that there isn’t a stable in the country that understands how wind affects race pace and patterns like they do, and they exploit this time and time again. We saw it with Saintly Dancer last week at Flemington; we’ve seen it with Pride of Jenni on numerous occasions. They ask for the maximum effort at the perfect time, with regard to where the wind is and how the track is playing.”
The crux of it is, Land Legend had all favours and had a really good day. He won the Metropolitan Handicap in 2024 and went on to start inside 10/1 in the Caulfield Cup, finishing third. It’s not as if he’s devoid of ability; it’s that we’ve not seen it in a long time.
He was quite good first-up, finishing in the race’s best last 600 metres and being the quickest through the middle section last start, but of course none of that hinted toward being able to beat Sheza Alibi and Birdman. Remarkable.
What to expect of him next start? Certainly regression. At weight-for-age, he has run a figure of 102.9. I think somewhere between 98 and 100 is reasonable of him, before being adjusted for weight.
Sheza Alibi stayed 2000 metres well but was beaten by circumstance.
She will ultimately be best suited over a mile, I believe, but there should be no issue with her in the Cox Plate or Queen Elizabeth when she does race in those. She was well below her best, with a figure of 102.5, but can return to 106, where she comfortably operates in the Golden Eagle.
Birdman was quite disappointing, and I’m not sure what to think of him in the Cox Plate. Every runner must have a price, though, and if he’s unwanted because of this run, I may find myself backing him. There’s a beauty in not knowing something, because often, no one else does either.
Race 8
LD-S-8: +4.7L | LD-8-4: -4.2L | LD-4-F: +0.3L | WNR-4-F: +2.1L | WTS: 97.5 | WFA: 101.8
Warwoven is now certainly the best of his generation, and perhaps one of the better colts upwards of 1200 metres we have seen in some time.
Is it a little strong to say that he reminds me of Anamoe? Maybe.
Precocious enough to race early at two, but better even still at three. This is building up to a Cox Plate for the ages, not because of top-line talent, but for betting. There must be six similarly rated horses that will start in the Cox Plate, with loads of differing form lines. Now imagine there were Sheza Alibi and Autumn Glow as well.
Disgraceful that we’ve been robbed of them in it.
Warwoven returned a figure of 101.8 in the Guineas. That mightn’t seem quite so high, but there’s an explanation for it, I think. The time was not great, but time is a function of where pace is allocated. Many will look toward the to-600 and from-600 times, which, to be blunt, do an awful job of explaining what happened in a race. They will see that Surfin’ Bird was quicker over the Caulfield mile and faster over the last 600 metres, too. While it’s true, it’s a reasonably elementary explanation of what actually happened.
The pace was fierce to begin with. Shinn was adamant on leading aboard Blind Raise, as was Bates on Seraphox. They raced upwards of seven lengths faster than par over the first 600 metres. Both riders realised as much, knowing such a speed could not be sustained, and the pace dropped away. Between the 1000 and 600 metres, Blind Raise raced just shy of six lengths slower than standard. But, of course, the energy it takes to run so fast through 600 metres does not just return because the pace slackened through 400. It’s also worth noting that it uses energy to increase the pace again after returning to a slow pace, especially while carrying 57kg.
So, the pace was muddling. It was very quick, then it was very slow, then it was quick again, at least in Warwoven’s case. With a more efficient pace, Warwoven, and certainly Blind Raise too, can improve.
Does he deserve to be favourite in the Cox Plate? It’s a question I’ve spent all day pondering. I dunno. Yeah, I guess. And if yes, not by much. I actually think he will improve again over 2000 metres. He relaxes so incredibly well. There was a point through the race where he strode ~2.15 times per second. Sectional times would suggest as much, too. He was strong through the line. He reminds me so much of Anamoe, in every sense. He’s not quite as good, but he’s close.
Race 9
LD-S-8: +5.4L | LD-8-4: +1.1L | LD-4-F: -5.2L | WNR-4-F: -0.7L | WTS: 101.4 | WFA: 102.2
One for the battlers, the Toorak, as Lady Shenandoah gave James McDonald and Chris Waller their 66th Group 1 in combination, nosing out two terrific stories.
What more to say than that Lady Shenandoah is as likeable and consistent as racehorses can be. She runs to form every single run and tries her heart out. Without the presence of Autumn Glow and Sheza Alibi, she must be favourite in the Empire Rose.
The pace was very fast; Regal Award did his best impression of his mum, ripping around Caulfield over a mile like she used to.
Unfortunately for him, it didn’t quite work.
The pace was unrelenting throughout, and it fell away from the 400 metres, and the swoopers were best positioned to win the race.
Changing Colours and Welcometotheshow both ran new career peaks. If either were ever to win a Group 1, it’d have been this. Perhaps Changing Colours will have another opportunity in a mares’ race, but she was beautifully placed under handicap conditions.
Too Darn Discreet is simply the perfect Matriarch mare. Perhaps Panova is too, who was okay in this. I always love that race.
Race 10
LD-S-8: -3L | LD-8-4: -0.2L | LD-4-F: +0.4L | WNR-4-F: +1.7L | WTS: 96 | WFA: 93.4
As you can tell, I’m a bit excited because it is officially carnival time, and this has gone on much too long, so I’ll keep this brief.
The pace was quite slow through the first section, increased without being fast through the middle, and was fast through the last 400 metres.
Persian Spirit has actually been quite consistent this campaign, but not as good as he was last.
Steparty was great first-up. Cranbourne Cup?
I’m sure we’ll see just about every single one of these in the Damien Oliver on Derby Day.
