Turf Talk:
- Rail is out 3m, having been true the last meeting here where they got to the outside fence.
- Soft 7 at acceptances, but fine weather all week but cold temperatures, so maybe slight improvement.
- Light winds will advantage those on speed.
- Have to be nimble and react to how the track is playing.
Key stats:
- Clint McDonald has generally had a good strike rate the past couple of seasons and he’s going at 25% his last 100 runners (26.1% PoT).
- Jabez Johnstone’s 3kg claim is proving hugely valuable. 15 winners from his last 50 mounts (30% SR) at a 27% profit on turnover.
Race 1
Love how (11) Lucky Brook has trialled across two campaigns. She’s yet to taste defeat in four jump-outs and looks to have a bit of substance to her. Eurell stable in form and has a leading jockey in Lachie Neindorf on board.
(16) Egyptian Dancer has claims. Forget her debut run where she got it all wrong at Pakenham. He trials either side of that have been excellent. Posted the fastest time of the morning when winning a heat comfortably on the Heath track leading into this. Don’t normally like horses drawing the inside form Caulfield’s sprint chute, but less worried with 2yo’s. Think she’s right in the game.
(10) Face The Wild has trilaled up nicely for the McEvoy yard. Had two starts in Queensland before coming south. Draws for a lovely run.
Team Hayes have five in the race and it’s hard to split them. Thought (5) Stakes went nicely in its recent jump-out at Flemington while (7) Mirador has been scratched a few times coming into this campaign off solid preparatory work. (2) Profumo has the benefit of a run under his belt this campaign, closing off nicely on debut down the Flemington straight.
Race certainly doesn’t end there.
(11) Lucky Brook
(16) Egyptian Dancer
(10) Face The Wild
(5) Stakes
Suggested bet: Backing Lucky Brook/Egyptian Dancer
Race 2
(2) Sixteen Reasons has changed stables since having no luck at Morphettville last time out. That has been a bit of a theme for her this campaign, but that’s also a result of her get back. Run on racing style. Think drawing off the fence is ideal for her, hopefully she can get into the three wide line and swoop late, much like she did when winning this tracing last year!
(12) Next Step Iowa is the mare on the up. She’s shown tactical versatility in two dominant wins this campaign and now gets in with 51kg after Dakotah Keane’s claim.
(7) Per Sempre doesn’t know how to run a bad race and she loves the sting out of the ground. Drops back to fillies and mares grade here which sees her get 3kg relief on her win last start.
(9) Luna Cat was forced to the inferior ground here over 1200m last start – ran well despite that. Sticky low draw to overcome, but in the game.
Thought (5) Baincelli trialled like she would really need the run first up and that may well be the case. She has trialled well since and it wouldn’t surprise to see her run well with a tongue tie going on the first time.
(12) Next Step Iowa
(2) Sixteen Reasons
(7) Per Sempre
(9) Luna Cat
Suggested bet: Backing Next Step Iowa and Sixteen Reasons.
Race 3
(7) Written Glow was quite dominant in her one start/win in New Zealand. She has very good gate speed and may well take up the running. She was given a reminder to quicken in her recent Traralgon trial, but did so nicely.
The toppy (1) Custom has trialled up nicely for her return. She has had barrier issues previously, which has been costly in some of her races, and she hasn’t exactly been blistering to ping the gates in either jump-outs this campaign. Like that Tom Stockdale has ridden her in both jump-outs as he should know her quirks.
Wasn’t a lot between (2) Afterbearna and (5) Race For Rule at Sandown last start and the latter now gets a 2kg weight swing in her favour.
(7) Written Glow
(1) Custom
(5) Race For Rule
(2) Afterbearna
Suggested bet: Happy to watch on. Tough race.
Race 4
They should roll along here.
(2) Savour The Dream produced a brilliant win at Mornington last start, belting subsequent winner Oak Beach. He’s a horse that was tied at the top level as a 3yo before having a long spell leading into this campaign. His first two runs this time in were satisfactory for a staying prospect then he simply went BANG las start. Drawn perfectly. He’s a pretty exciting winter prospect.
(18) Ant produced the best last 600m split of the meeting first up at Caulfield before having no luck at Flemington last time out. Step to 2000m is ideal. Drawn out and going to get a long way back, but think he’s going well.
(15) Fiore De Trone gets in with 51kg after Jabez Johnstone’s claim and he has had a sit on the mare, winning at Sandown last start. She was able to win off a slow tempo when producing the second best last 200m split of the meeting last start, the challenge for her is to prove as dynamic in a more genuinely run contest.
(1) Miracle Spin is racing in career-best form and relishing wet tracks.
Don’t think (5) Skippers Canyon got the 2400m last start and was always a risk. Drops back in trip which looks ideal.
(2) Savour The Dream
(18) Ant
(15) Fiore De Trone
(1) Miracle Spin
Suggested bet:
Race 5
(4) Gilded Water is the most talented horse, just not sure about the setup. Had a vet issue when failing as a heavily backed favourite first up. Was ridden very quietly at the tail of the filed in a recent 1000m jump-out at Cranbourne. Now five-weeks between runs going from 1800m to 2000m with a crossover nose band and earmuffs on the first time. Everything says they are going to ride him quietly – which may bring about his best – but the strength in his career to date has been his high cruising speed.
(2) Smokin Romans bounced back to some form last start after a hurdle trial between runs! He went to the line locked together with (1) Bankers Choice (who won by the barest of margins) but now gets 3kg in his favour with Jabez Johstone’s claim. He ran second to Revelare in a similar sort of race this track and trip in August last year.
(8) Raging Bull didn’t have the best of luck last time out when six-weeks between runs.
(2) Smokin’ Romans
(4) Gilded Water
(1) Bankers Choice
(8) Raging Bull
Suggested bet: Fascinating watch on Gilded Water…. Happy to look on.
Race 6
Massive fan of (13) Set Me Loose. Lightly raced, she put the writing on the wall with her arrogant maiden win at Yarra Valley at the back end of last campaign. She resumed with a totally dominant win at Seymour in a handy BM62. This is clearly a step up in grade but she’s more than up to it.
(3) Cannyworth was in clearly the worst ground here last time out and we’ve seen horses make rapid improvement from similar runs. He’s also better suited back to 1000m (last start 1100m). Looks over the odds at $23.
They rode Street Artist quietly in two runs last campaign and not sure that’s his go. Has had eight weeks off but was given a serious test in a recent Mornington jump-out, so should’ve be lacking fitness.
(11) Fly Bly Light was super on debut and has trialled up nicely. Gets in with 51kg after the claim.
(13) Set Me Loose
(3) Cannyworth
(5) Street Artist
(11) Fly By Light
Suggested bet: Keen Set Me Loose.
Race 7
(6) Indispensable didn’t have much luck in the Swan Hill Cup. He an enigma that hasn’t won since the 2024 Hellova Stakes in Tasmania where he dead heated with Keats, but he’s run some good races in that time, including at a mile. Worth a crack at 1700m at this stage of the campaign and in very well after the claim for Emily Pozman.
(11) Mometz and (15) Madiyya were both terrific at Flemington last time out. Mometz was home the second-best last 200m split of the meeting but continues to be his won worse enemy by being slowly away. Gate two is sticky Madiyya looks ready now fourth up.
Don’t think (4) A Samurai Mind was in the best ground at Flemington last time out (same race as Madiyya/Mometz). Maps to get a soft trail here, provided the inside section is OK, and think he can figure in the finish.
(7) First Chorus stepped back to 1400m last start which wasn’t suitable, in my humble opinion. However, preparation has been interrupted by an abscess that saw her scratched in successive weeks and now getting back up to 1700m on a quick back-up is a query.
(3) Think Giant has trialled up well enough ahead if his Australian debut.
(6) Indispensable
(15) Madiyya
(11) Mometz
(4) A Samurai Mind
Suggested bet: Indispensable looks a great roughie on the card. 1×3 E/W.
Race 8
(7) Big Swinger has jumped-out nicely between runs and looks ready to win again. He spotted them a big start at Sandown last time out, but ran well. Ben Allen knows this bloke well, so nothing lost going Willo to Allen.
(8) St Lawrence was scratched from Flemington last week to race here. Happy to forgive his first up run, trials either side of it have been good and the best of his ratings sees him in the finish of a race like this.
(19) Boltsaver continues to race well without wining. Slow tempo didn’t assist last start. Drawn out, but that’s only a positive for him as he will get back anyway.
(16) Roadcone maps nicely.
(7) Big Swinger
(8) St Lawrence
(19) Boltsaver
(16) Roadcone
Suggested bet: On a tough card think Big Swinger is the best bet and St Lawrence the best roughie – backing both.
Race 9
Stack of speed.
(5) Bazaball Rewarded is racing in super fashion having won two of her past three. She wan in the inferior ground when fifth this track and trip two back. That said, I do still think she’s a risk at the end of 1100m, especially with plenty of pressure engaged.
(6) Carbanados goes well fresh and he maps for a lovely, stalking trail. He looked like a coiled spring in his recent Traralgon trial. Maybe better suited at 1200m than 1100m but ticks plenty of boxes.
(12) Nimbustwothousand spotted Bazaball Rewarded a huge start at Sandown but was strong to the line. Step to 1100m is ideal. Wide draw no issue with light winds/one bend to navigate. Only poor run in recent times was when he had cardiac arrythmia.
(7) Steel Move and (8) Salsa Fellow are both going to spot them a start but will be strong late.
(12) Nimbustwothousand
(6) Carbanados
(5) Bazaball Rewarded
(8) Salsa Fellow
Suggested bet: Small bets Carbanados and Nimbustwothousand.
