As you’ll hear far too many times over the next few days, spring is in the air, and the good horses are beginning to resurface. This week, some highly touted three-year-old fillies and colts make their long-awaited returns in the Vain and Quezette Stakes.
Vain Stakes
The Blue Diamond favourite and runner-up, Closer To Free, is one of them and heads the market for Saturday’s Vain Stakes. There’s no disputing that he deserves his place at the top of betting, but I’d contend that he isn’t quite as likely as the early betting would suggest. Around $3.70 seems an appropriate price, and that is the price I’ve given him.
As has been well documented, the standard set by this group in the autumn was not particularly high. There may be an avalanche of lightly raced and progressive three-year-olds capable of overhauling the achievements of the prominent two-year-olds from the premier races.
I preface that because Myhros Ruler, who has effectively nothing else to his name beyond a dominant win at Echuca on heavy ground, is the runner I’ll be using to take on the premier three-year-olds. He ran exceptionally fast and was not used efficiently at all to do so. The opening furlong of the 1000-metre maiden was even before the pace slowed substantially between the 800 and 400-metres.
Once asked to quicken, he quickly disposed of very ordinary opposition, but did so in the manner of a very nice horse. My reading of the time is that, had the middle section not been run so slowly, he may have won by 10 lengths or further. Perhaps 9/1 is much too big, and because the gap between the established and the unexposed is not particularly significant this year, it is reasonable to forecast that a dominant Echuca maiden winner may not be so far removed from a horse who started favourite in the Blue Diamond.
I’ve marked Myhros Ruler a $5.50 chance, which makes him more than a fair bet at the current price.
Quezette Stakes
As for the fillies, Natural Fling is rightfully favourite after running the hands off the clock on debut before being beaten by the Coolmore favourite, The Next Episode. I find no value in $3.00, which is exactly where I have her priced, but I’m still excited to see what she can do.
Riverina Lulu is the next best chance in the race and a good alternative for punters unwilling to take the price of the favourite.
She won well over five furlongs at Flemington, and I can’t help but think there is still plenty of improvement left in her. She has since returned to the jump-outs and only enhanced her reputation.
The Kiwi filly is unbeaten and a Group 1 winner, but I find her quite easy to oppose, particularly given she must give three kilograms to two similarly talented fillies. Riverina Lulu is the more attractive bet and, in my view, the smarter option for punters.
P.B. Lawrence Stakes
The day’s feature, the P.B. Lawrence Stakes, welcomes back a number of seasoned talents in Private Eye, Evaporate and Feroce, but the race is headed by the Western Australian alumnus Cosmic Crusader.
There aren’t many legitimate holes to pick in the chances of the four leading contenders, but I do disagree with the way they have been priced.
Feroce has produced his best performances in races run in fast overall time and is a match for Evaporate in terms of talent, though he is considerably more inconsistent, which naturally has to be factored in.
Nonetheless, with a good speed forecast, he should get every opportunity to produce his best, and that makes him a more appealing betting proposition.
He pushed Tom Kitten to the line in the Heffernan Stakes first-up last campaign, is an Australian Guineas winner and also ran very well in a fast-run Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. I doubt he will be popular, but he appears a reasonable option for punters who aren’t enamoured with the favourite inside 2/1.
I don’t discount Cosmic Crusader’s chances. I make him a $3.00 chance and expect him to run to his peak, or perhaps slightly better, on Saturday. If he does, I doubt anything else can beat him.
Wagering is entirely about price, though, and I could not justify his current price.
Race one
For the bet of the day, we return to the first race, where Educated resumes after tarnishing her unbeaten record last start. She flopped on that occasion, but the market had expected her to produce a new peak rating, sending her away inside 4/1 against My Gladiola, Legacy Bound and several others.
I’m not expecting her to run to the level the market anticipated last start, but that expectation remains an invaluable guide when forecasting her potential as a four-year-old. She has had only four starts and may fit the adage of being a Group horse in a handicap. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me if she ultimately develops into a filly of that calibre.
There isn’t much for her to beat here beyond Maher’s second elect, Fundamental Nature, and Cliff Brown’s talented Savoyard. Savoyard, however, appears likely to be better suited over seven furlongs than five and a half.
I’ve priced Educated $2.70, which makes her an attractive bet to begin the day’s wagering.
Will’s suggested bets:
Race 1 – Educated
Race 5 – Myhro’s Ruler
Race 6 – Riverina Lulu
