Racing is without a feature race this Saturday at Caulfield, and it looks like a difficult day to find any early bets.
There are, however, two that pique my interest at this stage.
The Redoute’s Choice Stakes is an intriguing race to bet into because the favourite, Drumfire, is awfully short and doesn’t give the impression that he has much improvement left at this stage. He was second to Under Focus at Kensington last start, who went on to run third in the Kindgarten Stakes last weekend. That form reads well, but it’s not particularly strong, and there were no sectional indicators suggesting that he can take a sharp turn for the better.
The second favourite, Gin Twist, was weak over the concluding furlong at Flemington last start and has been much better over 1000 metres to date. Returning to 1200 metres again looks against her.
Buggsy, however, made an excellent debut at Sandown and looks the one most likely to improve over 1200 metres. He can settle prominently and gives every indication that the best is yet to come. He was heavily supported on debut, which suggests the stable holds him in high regard. Provided he improves a length or two from his first run, he can very easily be made favourite. I make him a 2/1 chance.
Trapdoor (race 10) has been excellent in two runs this campaign, finishing quickly in fast time against Enamorada before racing wide without cover at Sandown and still winning comprehensively second-up. Finally, he gets his chance over a mile, which should prove his optimal trip in time, and he draws well enough to settle prominently to the speed. He still has a length or two of improvement left this preparation, and this looks the perfect chance to run to a new peak.
First Chorus is the market’s second elect, and rightly so, after making a winning return in fast time on soft going at Pakenham. I expect her to settle behind Trapdoor, which may be the difference. Lindsey Smith may well have her targeted toward the Warrnambool Carnival in a few weeks’ time.
Trapdoor (race 10) is my best bet on a tricky day. Next best Buggsy (race 4).
