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Constitution Hill [supplied]

Constitution Hill [supplied]

Racelab: Constitution Hill’s flat rating would see him win a BM80 here as Melbourne Cup looms

UK superstar Constitution Hill is eyeing the Melbourne Cup after a dominant flat win, but performance data suggests he still has significant improvement to make to be competitive.

Paul Tatnell by Paul Tatnell
February 24, 2026
in Analysis
Reading Time: 2 mins read
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He’s one of UK’s most impressive and well-known horses – recording some of the highest ratings a hurdler ever seen.

Now Constitution Hill could be set for a crack at the Melbourne Cup in November, having recently run and won a flat race over 2400m at Southwell.

But just how impressive was Constitution Hill’s recent win in that Novice Stakes victory – and does it make him a genuine Melbourne Cup chance?

While the 9-year-old is regarded as one of the all-time great hurdlers, and has rated as such, he has fallen in the three of his last four starts over the jumps, there are calls for the ageing champ to stick to the flat races.

He is still favourite for the Champion Hurdle in March, but his owner Michael Buckley said he was unsure whether his star would return to the hurdles, but confirmed he was eyeing off a possible Melbourne Cup tilt.

On Friday, the Nicky Henderson-trained gelding opted for a change, tackling a flat race instead over 2400m, which he won as a strong favourite

And just how good did that win rate?

Well according to Racelab, it was well short of what’s needed to be competitive in the Cup, even as a lightweight.

”Constitution Hill ran a 94 RBM which is equivalent to winning a benchmark 80 in Vic/NSW Metro,’’ RaceLab’s Matt Collum said.

”The race was only a novice which is equivalent to a Class 1 here. Winning by 9.5L proves that he’s 2-3 classes above that level.’’

Collum said that rating would leave him well short of a what is needed in a Melbourne Cup, but believes that figure could improve over longer trips.

”He would have to do 105.3 for the Melbourne Cup on a minimum weight of 51kg,’’ he said.

”The win at Southwell was no surprise. His ratings over the jumps are much higher (113 peak rating) and he will only improve over more ground.

”With 11 wins from 15 starts, Constitution Hill’s average winning margin is a whopping 10.2 lengths.”

Constitution Hill is currently $21 with Bet365 for the Melbourne Cup.

 

Tags: Constitution HillMelbourne CupMichael BuckleyNicky Henderson
Paul Tatnell

Paul Tatnell

Betsy co-founder Paul Tatnell is an award-winning journalist with senior editorial experience across major Australian media and racing.

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