There’s every chance I have egg all over my face by about 4.02pm Saturday, but that’s racing. It’s a game of opinions, and here’s one nobody asked for this weekend: why on earth would you take Daniel Stackhouse off Cosmic Crusader?
Before anyone gets too worked up, this isn’t a Willie Pike pile-on. He’s the Wizard of the West for a reason, has been the dominant jockey in Western Australia for years and his record around the country speaks for itself.
But this booking makes little sense to me.
Cosmic Crusader arrived in Victoria with a huge reputation and delivered first-up in the Bletchingly Stakes, with Stackhouse giving him a perfect steer. Sure, the horse had the class and it looked straightforward, but Stackhouse kept him in a good rhythm, balanced around the home turn and allowed him to show his best.
His reward? Thanks for coming, Willie Pike is on next start.
Pike has never ridden Cosmic Crusader on raceday and comes to Caulfield on Saturday for just two rides, this being his first.
Stackhouse, meanwhile, is one of Victoria’s best jockeys, rides Caulfield regularly and, most importantly, has already demonstrated he knows how to get the best out of this horse.
Maybe there’s more to the booking than meets the eye and connections have their reasons. After all, owners have every right to book whoever they want, and Bob Peters and Willie Pike have enjoyed a hugely successful association over many years in WA. It may be as simple as that.
Maybe Pike jumps aboard, produces a masterpiece and Cosmic Crusader wins by three. But from the outside looking in, I find it strange, and it adds another little question mark to a horse I already think is too short at $2.40.
The Bletchingly win was outstanding, but…
Everyone saw Cosmic Crusader’s Bletchingly win and there was plenty to like. His Western Australian form had already established him as a serious racehorse, he’s won nine of 18 and the step from 1200m to 1400m second-up should suit him perfectly.
He is clearly the horse to beat, but he ain’t chasing down Winnasedge here and betting isn’t simply about finding the most likely winner; it’s about finding horses whose chances are better than the market suggests.
For me, $2.40 is skinny.
The Bletchingly was slowly run, which played beautifully into the hands of a horse with Cosmic Crusader with fit horses turning it into a barrier trial, enabling the classy galloper to stay in touch early. He exploded when Stackhouse asked him for an effort and was dominant, but Saturday presents a different challenge against a deeper field over 1400m.
Is Pike a negative? Well if this was Ascot, then no,. But, around Caulfield, there are certainly jockeys I’d want ahead of him.
Is replacing Stackhouse with a jockey who has never ridden the horse and doesn’t ride Caulfield week in, week out an improvement? I’m not convinced, particularly when there are so many high-quality Victorian jockeys who know the track intimately, including the bloke who rode Cosmic Crusader perfectly last start.
There are horses capable of beating him
The other reason I’m happy to oppose Cosmic Crusader at $2.40 is that this isn’t a race devoid of alternatives.
Evaporate is the horse that interests me most. Blake Shinn hasn’t ridden him for a while, but he has a terrific record aboard the horse, including a booming Sandown Stakes win second-up last campaign.
Evaporate finished fifth in this race last year after missing the start and having no luck in the straight, while in the autumn he resumed with a cracking run in the Futurity before finishing second in the All-Star Mile, beating home Pride Of Jenni.
I love Saturday’s setup. He can be hit and miss at the barriers, but Shinn goes on from a wide draw and I’d expect him to be positive. If he gets Evaporate into the race and up near the speed, he’s going to take a stack of beating.
Desert Lightning is another at a much bigger price. He finished second in this race last year and his recent jump-out suggests he’s going every bit as well, if not better. He’s generally effective fresh and barrier three should allow him to land in a beautiful position just behind the speed. At around $11, I think he’s over the odds.
Then there’s Private Eye, who follows the same Stradbroke-to-PB Lawrence path he took when winning this race last year. He had two trials leading into last year’s edition compared to one this time around, and I thought his trial 12 months ago was better, but he should make his own luck up on speed and give them something to catch.
And, the race doesn’t end there!
Go on then, Willie
Cosmic Crusader can obviously win. He might simply have too much class for them and Pike might produce the perfect ride, leaving this article looking very silly about 90 seconds after the gates open.
That’s part of the fun. It’s a game of opinions!
But at $2.40 you can leave me out of him
And I still can’t work out what Daniel Stackhouse did wrong!
