Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Group 1 Cox Plate
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In The Lab | Cox Plate | Group 1 WFA 2000m Flemington
Field of twelve runners for the 2026 Cox Plate. Track is currently a Good 4 however showers forecast on the day will see a downgrade into the soft range.
Plenty of speed about here with pace drawn out wide so expect a fast tempo. Land Legend likely to take up the running from Blind Raise and Light Infantry Man stalking the speed. Sir Delius and Warwoven are poised to get lovely runs from their favourable draws.
Warwoven has been outstanding this spring, completing the Golden Rose–Caulfield Guineas double and now gets his chance to measure up against the older horses. His 49.5kg impost is a major advantage, and from barrier two he should receive every opportunity to settle prominently and finish strongly. On ratings, he’s run the required number consecutively leading up to this.
WATCH: Warwoven win the Caulfield Guineas
The distance might be a query on paper however his mother won a Group 2 over this distance by 4.5L in NZ. He’s clearly bred to run the distance and I do like how he’s been running away from the opposition late. Aeliana is the main danger, bringing a strong ratings profile and the services of James McDonald, who continues his outstanding record in the race. She has the class to win if she gets the right run, but Warwoven’s weight advantage and upward trajectory make him the preferred option.
Light Infantry Man loves the track and distance. His run in the Turnbull was solid and he’s much better taking a sit with a strong tempo ahead. I have to be with him at the price. Sir Delius doesn’t appear to be going as well this prep so I’m happy to oppose him at the current price. Ceolwulf brings a different formline but I think he’s better suited at the mile – seems very skinny as well. Cosmic Crusader had every possible chance in the Caulfield Cup and drops back in trip here. This may be his last run before a spell. Blind Raise has ability however hasn’t drawn to get an easy run on speed.
WATCH: The 2026 Turnbull Stakes
Top pick: Warwoven
Roughie Light Infantry Man
- The JTD represents the minimum numeric rating a horse must achieve to win a given race. Instead of looking backward at what a horse has done, the JTD looks forward to establish the mathematical baseline required to win under the specific conditions of that day’s race
