The $20 million TAB Everest (1200m) headlines Saturday’s Randwick meeting, and while plenty of attention has been paid to Ka Ying Rising’s barrier draw, Betsy’s Dean Watling believes the Hong Kong superstar has landed in an ideal position.
Watling has dissected the speed map for Australia’s richest race, predicting an above-average tempo that should give every runner their chance.
Deano’s Speed Map (Blue = Advantaged, Pink = Disadvangtaged)
Ka Ying Rising’s perfect draw
Despite drawing wide, Watling believes Ka Ying Rising is ideally placed to glide across and settle just off the fence, particularly with the prospect of rain in Sydney.
“Why is that bad? No, that’s the perfect barrier for a horse that lands on speed, especially with this rain around,” Watling said.
“He can just glide across, land off rails, and punch to the key lanes in the straight.”
Watling expects Blue Door to set the early tempo from inside Ka Ying Rising, with Ninja also likely to hold a prominent position along the fence.
Where does Tempted settle?
One of the key questions surrounds Tempted, who has settled well back in her first two runs this preparation.
Watling expects a different scenario on Saturday from the inside alley.
“I don’t think she’s going to get back as far as she’s been first and second up,” he said.
“I don’t think she can hold three back at the fence. I think that’s very, very key.”
Meanwhile, Lady Shenandoah looks set to enjoy a terrific run in transit, with Joliestar another expected to settle in the stalking division.
Further back, Watling believes Caballus could establish a three-wide running line, potentially providing cover for Giga Kick and Jimmysstar.
A genuine tempo gives everyone a chance
With several runners capable of occupying forward positions, Watling expects the Everest to be run at a solid clip.
“I think it’s above-average tempo overall, so all horses should get their chance.”
The speed map suggests Ka Ying Rising will have every opportunity to take up a commanding position, but a genuine tempo could also bring the powerful finishers into play.
Watch Dean Watling’s full Everest speed map analysis in the video below:
