Summary of Best Bets:
Race 1 (8) Midnight Dynamite
Roughie: Race 2 (13) Diamond Epic e/w
Turf Talk:
- Rail True
- Love this track.
- Little issue is the rain and how much actually falls.
- Could change dramatically through the day.
Key stats:
- Michael Freedman has had 59 runners at Doomben for 13 wins at 22% strike rate.
- Ryan Maloney has had 1043 rides on the track and strikes at an impressive 21.1% over all those rides.
- Zac Purton has 14 winners from his last 50 rides and has a decent book here.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Don’t love the 61kg for (2) Midnight Dynamite on a soft track but draws the inside gate, has McDonald on and has won 2 of 3 second up. Would not be surprised if McDonald decides to take this up, I’d love them to lead. Very consistent and is going to take some beating here.
This looks harder for (4) Cosmo Centaurus but he is in career best form and handles all going. Purton will get him in the right spot and no reason he can’t make it a hat-trick of wins.
Hae always liked (1) Bunker Hut, just not sure he is going his best right now. His best would be good enough.
(7) True To Form has been in very good form, just wants it dry. Wet would worry me.
Selections:
(2) Midnight Dynamite
(4) Cosmo Centaurus
(1) Bunker Hut
(7) True To Form
Suggested Bet: Win (2) Midnight Dynamite
Race 2:
Liked (11) Perfect Play fresh and feel once the rain come it was just a task too big at the mile. Has a good 2nd up record, Berry takes the ride and just needs a good ride early from a sticky starting point.
I think every time I’ve been on (12) Éclair Awesome she is beaten and when I jump off she wins. Horror gate but Thompson on and has a great record on this track (3:2:0:1). Handles all ground and just comes down to the run in transit.
(14) Our Queen for Jmac and Baker will have support. She has good late splits but just have to have a little query on the mile still for me. I’m sure the market will love this horse but hoping that gives me more value about others.
(13) Diamond Epic will be much better for the last start effort. Might want 1800m now but can land midfield from this draw and be one of the strongest late. Best L200m in 4 of her last 6 and could be the value in a good race.
(15) Nodachi has found the old Melbourne form since joining Dunn and looks a new horse. This is harder but have to respect as she looks for the hat-trick.
Purton riding (18) Kaluakoi gives it a chance. Draws the inside and is an on speed type who gives a kick. Might be better over 2000m but I don’t mind this play on a track he likes.
Selections:
(13) Diamond Epic
(11) Perfect Play
(15) Nodachi
(12) Éclair Awesome
Suggested Bet: Small e/w (13) Diamond Epic
Race 3:
We might have to take the Jmac tax with (2) Hidden Achievement. He’s an expensive colt that has only won once but was good late fresh and handles any ground. Draws well, the only win was 2nd up and well placed here.
(1) Burma Star is handy but can just mix form for no real reason. Has won on soft and heavy so rain no issue. Did beat home Hidden Achievement last start.
I’m sure (4) Estremo has more to give. He is another well bred colt who is a G3 winner. The two runs back have been good, but I have expected a little better. A win would not surprise.
Forgiving (3) Fabulantes last start and he was airborne before that. Purton takes the ride and he can add lengths to them.
Selections:
(2) Hidden Achievement
(1) Burma Star
(4) Estremo
(3) Fabulantes
Suggested Bet: Win (2) Hidden Achievement
Race 4:
(4) Coastal Boom might have been run over late last start but the effort was good. Had a kick on the corner and back to 1200m from an inside draw is ideal.
(13) The Autumn Affair is a beauty and underrated. Been the wrong price the last couple and nearly halved her quote both times. May want 1400m but she can get over these late if things pan out in the run. She only struck him 5 or 6 times the entire straight last time out and like a more vigorous ride this time.
(10) Double Cool was beaten fresh but loses the apprentice for Harley and he could add lengths to this horse. Fitter and winning hope for sure.
(9) Dream Roca has the runs on the board and bumped into a star fresh. Thompson rides again and the 1200m looks more suitable. Inside draw can help also.
(11) Esperanza is a good filly and was hard in the market last start at Listed level. Had a poor recovery and I can be forgiving of that. Gate is not ideal but can be strong late.
Selections:
(13) The Autumn Affair
(4) Coastal Boom
(10) Double Cool
(11) Esperanza
Suggested Bet: Small e/w (13) The Autumn Affair
Race 5:
They might have pulled the right rein waiting until this week with (2) Welwal. A superior wet track horse with good ability. Three runs back have all been good and was a G3 winner last start on a soft 6. Freshened for this and gets McDonald on top.
(4) Amor Victorious was good fresh and goes well 2nd up. Will be right on speed for Rawiller and hard to get past.
(3) Tavi Time is an absolute beauty. Fitter for the two runs back, handles most ground and just has to overcome the gate.
(6) Cristel Clear gets a good gate and Berry. (11) War Eternal was good in a decent lead up race and handles the ground.
(8) Cote Atlantique is airborne and screaming to win a race.
(13) Blindedbythelight has a win in her soon but the gate is not ideal.
Selections:
(2) Welwal
(3) Tavi Time
(8) Cote Atlantique
(4) Amor Victorious
Suggested Bet: Win bet (2) Welwal
Race 6:
Gates are important with a small run to the first corner.
Don’t love the 59kg for (1) Catch The Glory but she does love the wet. Might be able to use the gate to land midfield and there should be a good tempo up front. Respect.
(2) The Black Cloud is also a great wet tracker, draws the inside and gets Nash on top. Everything about this looks suitable.
Loved what (6) Lonhro’s Queen did last prep for Munce stable. Recent trial was good, handles all ground and has won 3 of 4 fresh. She can surprise a few here and a win would not shock me.
(11) Nepo Baby is rock hard fit and a nice 3yr old filly on the rise. On the quick back up and from the gate should get the run of the race and every possible chance. Very hard to get past here, like the step back to 1100m.
(16) Savagery Vibe and (8) Cigar Flick some hope and next best.
Selections:
(11) Nepo Baby
(2) The Black Cloud
(6) Lonhro’s Queen
(16) Savagery Vibe
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (11) Nepo Baby
Race 7:
(2) Middle Earth is a ripper but probably wants if drier more so than wet. Liked the effort late 2nd up and ready to take a bit step forward here. Has the big eight but has class.
(8) Nellie Leylax is a swimmer and if it gets to heavy, he might be the bet. Comes out of a much easier race but drops 5.5kg and loses the apprentice for Ben Thompson.
(5) Just Fine was runner up to Ceowulf on a heavy track over 2000m last prep, fair form that. Has mixed form this prep and maybe watch the market with the old boy.
Selections:
(2) Middle Earth
(8) Nellie Leylax
(5) Just Fine
(3) Alacance
Suggested Bet: No
Race 8:
The forecasts have been horribly wrong over the last couple of weeks so it’s a guessing game again. Showers all week and we won’t know what the track will be rated until just before every race. Once they chop it up, if we get 5mm of rain it could get to a heavy very quickly.
Not a race that really interests me punting wise this year because of that.
Even though (1) Jimmystar will nearly certainly need further, he is fit and the rain might bring a few back to him over the 1200m. Pace should be even and he can be the strongest late.
(2) Private Eye is a beauty, doesn’t know how to run poorly. In recent times they have taken the small step back from Group 1’s and he’s been exceptional. This isn’t the strongest 10,000 we have seen and the draw is perfect for him.
(11) Devil Night is a 3yr old colt who has been very good his last two. Beaten 0.5L by the in-form Jigsaw in a G1 and then 2nd to Tempted last time out. Good colt, not sure on a wet track?
(12) Grafterburners also a colt and has an outstanding record (13:6:1:3). Hasn’t missed a place over the 1200m in seven race starts. Has won 2 of 3 second up.
The X-factor for me is (13) Skybird. She is extremely good on her day but tailing off last in Adelaide was a shock. Was beaten les than 1L by Joliestar the run before that. I’d have had a small bet if she drew better but the gate is a horror.
(17) Beadman is a horse I have loved all along. Thought his form was no good recently but the win last week was back to his best. Draws good, handles all track and can win here.
If we somehow got a good 4 surface I could come into (15) Abounding. She loomed last start like she was going to run into it and maybe didn’t handle the conditions. That’s obviously the query now with rain around.
Selections:
(1).Jimmysstar
(17) Beadman
(2) Private Eye
(13) Skybird
(11) Devil Night
Suggested Bets: No
Race 9:
Great race to finish.
I’m not sold on (8) Accidental Bid but gee whiz Maher seems to have a big wrap on him. He’s not one to get too excited so I am thinking we have to respect here. From all reports just getting better all the time and on track for the Derby.
Love what I see with (16) Solid Gold. A very nice kiwi filly on the way up. Dominant in a maiden two back and then great fight to win a G3 over 2100m. On the upward spiral.
(2) Providence is well bred and has good ability. Only one win from 13 but was 2nd in the G3 Frank Packer plate last start and in the Waller yard.
(12) Falcon Lair gets back but looks a genuine stayer in the making. Best L400m and 200m last start and Thompson taking the ride is a positive sign.
(15) Soverato was good in the G1 Oaks but always hard to stay up after a grand final run.
Selections:
(8) Accidental Bid
(16) Solid Gold
(2) Providence
(12) Falcon Lair
(17) Castello Grande
Suggested Bets: Trifecta 8 // 2,12,16,17 // 2,12,16,17
