Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 3 (11) La Barrita
Next Best: Race 7 (11) Chispa
Turf Talk
- Rail 2m.
- The weather has been horrible, but it is improving heading into the weekend.
- Being winter, I’d be surprised if we aren’t still on a genuine soft surface here.
- A good card of racing, but big fields make this a tricky sort of day.
Stats that matter
- G. Begg has trained 11 of his last 50 winners and has a couple of decent chances.
- James McDonald has a great book of rides and has ridden 11 of his last 50 winners.
Race by race overview
Race 1
Looks three main hopes to me and the market feels the same.
(11) Seven’s was wide the trip and is a forgive first-up. Can mix his form but his best is handy. Really well placed in a race like this, fitter and gets Berry on top. Has won second-up and looks hard to beat here.
(4) Cavalry Man is better at Eagle Farm but has been good each run this prep and is screaming to win a race. Loomed as the winner last start in a BM90 and was just run over late at 1800m. Up 6kg in this easier race but gate three is a blessing for him at a sticky starting point.
(19) All Kinds Of Folk was limited down south but the Queensland runs have been good. Dominant heavy-track win fresh in a BM60. Then given no hope but ran the second-best last 600m, 400m and 200m splits of the race last week. Thompson jumps on.
(6) Express Payment next best.
Selections:
(11) Seven’s
(4) Cavalry Man
(19) All Kinds Of Folk
(6) Express Payment
Suggested Bet: Win bet (11) Seven’s and making (4) Cavalry Man a winning outcome too.
Race 2
Good speed and it’s a matter of who holds their nerve or gives in first for the lead. Couple of apprentices who will be told to lead, but will McDonald outsmart them on Now Is The Hour?
(3) Now Is The Hour is a ripper and so consistent. From this gate it will be bloody hard with so much pace underneath. If somehow J-Mac produces a gem and sits behind leaders it should win. Massive question over that though.
(14) Balance The Books bounced back last start and still has upside. Two from two this track, two from three this distance and ready for 1200m at the third run back.
(6) Mercurial Lady will be suited by the speed and all runs have been decent for the new stable. Winner on heavy ground last start and will be one of the strongest late. Harder here but drops 5.5kg.
Needs to dry out for (8) Surprise Honey but some of her best form lines up well against these.
(2) Caspernova was a drifter and plain fresh. Gets a good gate, has a good second-up record and can land in exotics at big odds.
(12) Arabian Rose and (13) Without Parallel both have light weights and some hope.
Selections:
(14) Balance The Books
(6) Mercurial Lady
(3) Now Is The Hour
(12) Arabian Rose
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
Completely understand why (1) I Am Dirty has come up favourite. Sharp improvement at her second career run and showed a nice turn of foot. King stays on for Baker and he is deadly when he brings them north.
(11) La Barrita got a long way back and let down well in a race not run to suit. Should be able to be midfield from the gate and could be lengths better for that outing. Melham rides and she will be strong late. Looks a bet to me.
Those two look the winning hopes.
(4) Auric Star has been very good at both starts and this trip looks more suitable. Can run well again.
(8) Shintono and (5) Katoto have good upside and have to be considered.
Selections:
(11) La Barrita
(1) I Am Dirty
(4) Auric Star
(5) Katoto
Suggested Bet: Win (11) La Barrita
Race 4
Gates and maps important from this start but easier said than done working this map out.
(5) Stardom will push forward and I do feel the 1100m is suitable. Can just be a little weak the last 100m so needs to find a spot quickly and not use much petrol.
I hate the gate for (6) Foreign Press but assume they will be positive and try to take bad luck out of it. She is very good and the dominant trial win has her ready to go.
(9) Sylph has been good but not as good as last prep. Speed on here and fitter now though.
(1) Earn To Burn is better at 1000m but want to respect from the perfect gate.
Selections:
(6) Foreign Press
(9) Sylph
(5) Stardom
(1) Earn To Burn
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
Gollan has a couple of speed runners and he is a genius at sending them forward to get the race run as he wants.
Even with the wide gate at this starting point, (1) Hidden Wealth should be able to find the spot outside the leader. He has class, he has McDonald and can win.
(3) Zealously looks to have better form on dry but it’s a bit deceiving. Was a good winner fresh and only has to hold that form to be hard to run down here. Has won or placed in 11 of 17.
(6) Pereille is a tease. Always flashing and never winning. Respecting (7) Barber from a good gate and probably just wants it drying out.
They might be too classy for (12) About To Explode but he has the light weight and is in career-best form. Gate means he might land a couple of lengths closer, which could be crucial for him.
Selections:
(3) Zealously
(1) Hidden Wealth
(12) About To Explode
(7) Barber
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
No idea here.
Easier to find knocks rather than positives about them.
(3) Blindedbythelight has been very good the two runs back, but the gate is a nightmare. (1) Snitzanova is the class but may get to near last from the gate. (10) Margot’s Deel has a good race in her but the map is not great for her either.
I underrated (6) Our Queen and she is better than I thought. She draws well but usually gets to midfield or worse. Has to take a spot closer and use that gate. She was solid last week and the quick back-up gives me confidence.
(2) Pinitio is favourite as it comes out of the hot race won by Idle Flyer. Also the Waller and J-Mac factor but seems under the odds to me.
(16) Probability Theory has won four of six and they have not found the ceiling with her yet. Gate isn’t bad, Thompson rides and she is a winner.
(15) Tomato Toastie might have been a little close to the speed but had every chance last start. Good turn of foot when races pan out for her. Wet track would be ideal.
Selections:
(6) Our Queen
(15) Tomato Toastie
(2) Pinitio
(16) Probability Theory
(10) Margot’s Deel
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
Gee this is a good race and more open than most think.
Have loved the prep of (11) Chispa. Made good ground two back and then circled them last start and the win was exceptional. Waller with a well-timed filly on the rise and she could go to another level here.
The Kiwi (1) Single Red is all class and likely to go forward to offset the gate. Was very good in defeat at the Coast and can come on from that run.
(6) Fireball Miss has been getting back and finishing off well. Best last 200m of the race two back and second-best last 200m last start. Draws to land a little closer and will be hard to hold out here. Good money as soon as markets opened, $14 into $9.
(7) Zuleika needs a very good ride from the gate but is a true stayer and gets Thompson on top.
(2) Paltrow Miss is a very progressive filly for the best stable but the gate means a lot of things have to go right.
Selections:
(11) Chispa
(6) Fireball Miss
(1) Single Red
(2) Paltrow Miss
(7) Zuleika
Suggested Bet: Win bet (11) Chispa and smaller (6) Fireball Miss
Race 8
I just can’t stand betting in (6) Pride Of Jenni races. Great spectacles, she will be a long way in front again and may well hold them off. Could also get beaten 6L and it would be no surprise.
Coming here third-up, I expect (1) Half Yours to be right on song. Just plain last start but the fresh run was good. This trip is suitable and handles all ground.
(7) She’s A Hustler is the one on the way up and can take another step forward. Good in the Hollindale and another ready to show her very best now.
There will be good support for (4) Birdman as he was probably the eye-catcher in the lead-up race. Waller has half the race and I usually get his wrong though.
Selections:
(1) Half Yours
(7) She’s A Hustler
(6) Pride Of Jenni
(4) Birdman
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 9
Five of these went around in the same race at Gosford and only 2.2L between them. (4) Sweynesday was wide the trip and a solid effort. Has essentially just been a 1200m horse so I’d have liked a better gate. (5) Willowdow is tactically versatile, which is a big help, and loves a wet track. (11) Harry’s Yacht is airborne but has a very awkward gate.
I have a feeling (3) Cifrado might be back to his best. Two big trial wins and an incredible fresh win at the Coast. Handles all ground and just needs to land in front of five or six here from an awkward gate. That is the query.
(19) Midnight Dynamite was dominant as a best bet for us in an easier race last week. Drops 6kg and sits right on speed.
(13) Boomtown Boss has a heap of upside and can improve sharply second-up. Gate not the best but Berry is a huge booking for him. Blinkers first time and his full sister was much better with blinkers on.
Map horses might be (14) Tuned up behind the leader and (7) The Inflictor not far off it. Both consistent types who can win without surprising.
Very tough way home in the quaddie here and gates have really made it hard for some leading hopes.
Selections:
(13) Boomtown Boss
(3) Cifrado
(19) Midnight Dynamite
(14) Tuned
Suggested Bet: Small each-way (13) Boomtown Boss
