Summary of Best Bets:
Race 2 (6) Moonan Quartz
Race 3 (5) Fire Bomber
Race 5 (1) Sword Of Legacy
Turf Talk:
- Rail 2.5m
- Everything I’ve seen and heard is its going to be very wet, but the BOM site aren’t on board. Let’s just see what unfolds and update tips Saturday morning.
- Usually good to map on or near the s[peed here.
- Gates are important over the 1110m, 1200m and 1615m starts
Stats that matter:
- Corey and Kylie Geran have 8 winners from their last 50 and ROI +11.8%.
- Jag Guthman Chester has 12 winners from last 50 rides and ROI +3.4%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Can’t knock (1) Tengun Tommy’s form. He is 2/2 this prep. Won at the midweeks over 1110m and then in town over 1000m. Hard in the market at both, Thompson stays on and 59.5kg on wet ground the only tiny query.
Didn’t mind (2) Fearless Win in the same race that was 3rd beaten 2.1L. Meets Tengun Tommy 3kg better here but the gate hurts.
Gee I like what I see in (3) High Prophet. Never like trying to line up Toowoomba form but this was impressive on debut and the best part was he last 100m. Won a trial since and can trouble these.
(8) Hidden Whisper is with the best 2yr old trainer we have. Run of the race on debut and beat a good one. Won at $26 there and decent price again here.
(11) My Girl Marley has good upside and been solid at both runs. Blinkers look a terrific option for her. They could really switch her on.
Selections:
(3) High Profit
(11) My Girl Marley
(1) Tengun Tommy
(8) Hidden Whisper
(2) Fearless Win
Suggested Bet: Small e/w (3) High Profit
Race 2:
Have always liked (6) Moonan Quartz and it has always started over the odds. This prep he is 2/2 and both dominant wins. Good gate, claim and the one to beat again.
(5) Tornado Express has improved each run this prep and was a winner in a bm70 last start. Good gate and claims are a help.
(2) Detrimental is no star but is a consistent type and will be fitter for the fresh run. Maps on speed and he’s a good apprentice on top.
Selections:
(6) Moonan Quartz
(5) Tornado Express
(2) Detrimental
(10) Crusader Voyage
Suggested Bet: Win (6) Moonan Quartz
Race 3:
A few improving types and interesting race.
(5) Fire Bomber has been good all prep. Won first up and then luckless next start. Last week he was runner up in a better race than this over 1350m. Slight query back to 1200m but the inside gate could be a big help.
(2) Moshulu Spirit has won three in a row and been very well placed. Hasn’t beat much yet but hard to knock the winning form and Thompson stays on top.
(7) Metal man has promised to be a good one but was very plain last start. Has since trialled very well and he could win without surprising.
(10) Over Spray will lead, the last 100m a genuine query. (9) The Torque Xpress could be an improver 2nd up.
Selections:
(5) Fire Bomber
(2) Moshulu Spirit
(7) Metal Man
(9) The Torque Xpress
Suggested Bet: Small e/w bet (5) Fire Bomber
Race 4:
These are always lottery’s, especially big fields for the staying race.
I will nearly always revert to the Sydney visitors and (2) Cormac T fits the bill. On speed and runner up at Rosehill in a bm78 last time out. That runs wins here if he can back it up.
I haven’t had much luck with (16) Techna but it looks as though she is in for her best prep so far. Not bad fresh and then dominant last start at the midweeks. Best part of the race was her last 100m and she looks very hard to beat here.
(11) Fioprospero is well placed against these but the widest gate is not ideal. Was going to get back, but may sit last now. Brings the bm72 form from Sydney and that will measure up.
Big fan of (4) Enterprise Private but surely needs the run first up over this trip.
If it’s soft 5-6 it might be Techna, if it’s wetter it might be Cormac T.
Selections:
(2) Cormac T
(16) Techna
(1) Connecticut
(11) Fioprospero
(4) Enterprise Private
Suggested Bet: Split bets if prices allow (2) Cormac T and (16) Techna
Race 5:
Nice win last start by (1) Sword Of Legacy and landed some good bets there. 2kg claim will help, handles soft and just needs the track to allow you to run on from the second half of the field.
(6) Grinzinger Champ was well held behind Sword Of Legacy last start but was the 2nd best L400m and 200m of the race. Bad gate doesn’t help her cause here.
(8) Our Huntress has won or placed in all seven starts. Only broke maiden status last start at EF but did it in style. Went to the front and run away from them in the straight. She could give some cheek if it’s leaders biased.
(12) Ready For Aimee was horrible last start but has no weight and form last prep would have her right in this.
Selections:
(1).Sword Of Legacy
(8) Our Huntress
(6) Grinzinger Champ
(12) Ready For Aimee
(2) Dragonne Rouge
Suggested Bet: Win (1) Sword Of Legacy
Race 6:
Far more suitable race for (9) Daggers than the race later in the day but Gollan has a couple of other good ones here. Does he run? Wide gate makes it tricky but he is versatile and some hope.
Gollan has (1) John Rambo and he will be the death of punters. His best is excellent but not often does he run up to his price expectations. This is easier than the last start at Listed level.
(3) North Pole was right in the market last start and rider lost iron on jumping. Took no part and forget that. Will map perfect from the gate and is a handy galloper.
(13) Pocketmoney is also in the last race. Just 53kg here and the last two runs have been very good. Will be up near the speed and in this for a long way.
(12) Just In Time was horrible fresh but want to respect anything this stable brings north.
(10) Robrick mixing form but a dominant winner last start and some hope here.
Selections:
(1).John Rambo
(3) North Pole
(9) Daggers
(13) Pocketmoney
(10) Robrick
Suggested Bet: No
Race 7:
I’ve always thought (10) Too Many Thoughts would turn into a handy one. Won three out of five last prep and can improve this prep. The first trial this time in was horrible, the next was much better without being great. He may need this run but just feel it sets up well for him and he can win.
(11) Break Free has a turn of foot and good strike rate (14:5:2:2). From the gate I am worried she will get a long way back and need the track to play fair. Hasn’t missed a place in three go’s this track/trip.
(13) Sultry Siren always up to a race around this grade, I just have no luck with her at all.
(14) Surprise Honey is just 52.5kg and Gollan/Thompson combo.
(5) She’s Exotic has won 7 of 14 and always respect ‘winners’.
Selections:
(10) Too Many Thoughts
(11) Break Free
(14) Surprise Honey
(13) Sultry Siren
(5) She’s Exotic
Suggested Bet: Win (10) Too Many Thoughts
Race 8:
No real speed so it’s a bit of a guess as to who will push on.
Personally I think they will use the gate with (1) The Inflictor and sit closer. He’s been good but a few lengths off his best. Handles all conditions is a big tick.
(3) Esjay the other that could use the light weight and go to the front. Has been drawing poorly in sprint races and forced to go back. Has mixed form this prep which drops the confidence a bit.
(6) Express Payment is the horse in career best form. Has had the best prep of his life and drops 5kg on the last start win at the sunny coast.
(7) Pasima some chance if it doesn’t get too wet.
Not a race I’m confident with.
Selections:
(6) Express Payment
(3) Esjay
(7) Pasima
(1) The Inflictor
Suggested Bets: No
Race 9:
The mile start is an awkward starting point and gates can be important. How much rain has fallen and which part of the track they are on is the biggest query here.
I’d have loved some type of headgear on (8) High Dandy. Seems to have a real flat spot and then gets in the fight and can be strong late. Love the 54kg and love the fact he is tactically versatile. Would love an e/w quote.
(4) Daggers has been very good for Gollan since joining the stable and inside gate here is valuable. He can park on the leaders backs and get every possible chance. I’m not 100% convinced the mile is what he is after though.
(5) Sosino had won two in a row and was flying. I thought he was plain last start and no excuse. Wet track and 2kg claim can help here.
(9) Naval Trader was the wrong price last start and ran better than it looks on paper. More than good enough to win here and fitter 3rd up.
I haven’t been with (12) Pocketmoney ever but it’s hard to miss the last couple of runs. Dominant at the Gc before beaten a lip at the sunny coast last start. Just 52.5kg and will map well.
Selections:
(8) High Dandy
(12) Pocketmoney
(9) Naval Trader
(4) Daggers
(5) Sosino
Suggested Bets: Split bets (8) High Dandy and (12) Pocketmoney if prices allow.
