Summary of Best Bets:
Race 2 (4) Comin’hometoyou
Race 5 (8) Flaxlands
Turf Talk:
- Rail 7.5m
- Weather has been horrible and mixed reports for the week.
- Weatherzone has it clearing so may just be a decent track with the edge out of it.
- Always like to draw good gates over the 1110m, 1200m and 1600m starts.
Stats that matter:
- Apprentice Jace McMurray rode four winners Saturday and has 9 winners from last 50. Also has a ROI +47.7%
- Although they have a couple of chances, surprising to see a great stable like the Archibalds have just 2 winners from their last 50 and ROI -66.6%.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(2) Saturdays Girl always promises to win one but is just a non-winner. A 22 start maiden but is usually running on late and can be in the money again.
(1) Highland Kitty is another that is consistent but is also an 8 start maiden. Change of stable and plain trial but watch and respect any money for it.
(4) Had It All is an on-speed runner and has been good this prep. Took Crash The Party to beat her two back and last start they just went too hard in front and stopped late. 1350m with the rail out will suit.
(9) Stylish Edition does a few things wrong but is a well bred filly with Waller who looks to be the one with upside. Don’t like the get-back pattern, but she can be the strong one late at 1350m.
Selections:
(4) Had It All
(9) Stylish Edition
(1) Highland Kitty
(2) Saturdays Girl
Suggested Bet: Not at the prices.
Race 2:
(4) Comin’hometoyou was plain first prep but returned this prep with a good run at Ipswich running 2nd. Has been the best L200m in all three career starts. Can continue to improve.
(6) Lottery Link has mixed form horribly but I feel is better than the form suggests. Beaten a long way last start but 2nd best L200m of that race.
(7) Moscow Mule was a pass mark on debut and natural improvement should come from that. Bred to get over further but gets Thompson on top and some hope.
Selections:
(4) Comin’hometoyou
(6) Lottery Link
(7) Moscow Mule
(10) St Andrews
Suggested Bet: Win (4) Comin’hometoyou
Race 3:
(5) Agadoo is no star but she has been decent this prep. Very good first-up but no match 2nd up. Blinkers go on and could help her out here. Good gate helps too.
(6) Arctic Bright is screaming to win a race. Has been pretty good all prep and just run down on the line last start. Maps up on speed and will look the winner again at some stage.
No doubt (8) Emphatique has ability but she can mix it up a bit. Got back and rattled late first-up and she does look like she is better than Maiden grade.
Selections:
(6) Arctic Bright
(5) Agadoo
(8) Emphatique
(12) Mediterra
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
(3) Ruins Of Rome bumped into some decent horses last prep and he was OK against them. Fresh run was a pass mark and he has a good 2nd up record (3:2:0:1).
(5) Extreme Diamond is one I thought may have won more races by now. He does have ability and is in the Maher camp. Good fresh and should strip fitter here. Thompson stays on and sure to be in the finish somewhere.
(6) No Name Frank and (7) Acapulco Girl might be next best.
Easy to make a case for another few horses in an open race.
Selections:
(3) Ruins Of Rome
(5) Extreme Diamond
(6) No Name Frank
(7) Acapulco Girl
Suggested Bet: No
Race 5:
(1) Siesta was a winner at first start for Gollan and the southern form before that had been OK. This is a jump in grade but looks to have upside in Qld. Looks a suitable target here and should get the right run on speed.
(8) Flaxlands looks to me to be the one with the upside. Hasn’t had a lot go right lately but I’ve liked the way she hits the line (3rd best L200m of the day last start). She likes to get back but if they can sit as close as possible with cover, she can win here.
(3) Anarita showed ability up here last prep but just a bit plain to start this prep down south. Should find this a touch easier and probably wants a dry track.
Selections:
(8) Flaxlands
(1) Siesta
(3) Anarita
(6) Mosamour
Suggested Bet: Win (8) Flaxlands
Race 6:
Probably the most even race of the day and very hard to find the winner.
(4) Holy Flash sits on speed and maps well here. Lacks a turn of foot but usually shows fight late. Should get every chance.
(5) Barello is no star but the fresh run looked like a barrier trial and can improve here. Gets a 3kg claim, fitter and did win 2nd up last prep.
(8) Crusader Voyage looks to have a bit of upside. Ran up their backs very late last start, Thompson goes on here also. Only won 1 of 12 so far though.
(7) Fort William might be next best in an open race.
Selections:
(5) Barello
(4) Holy Flash
(8) Crusader Voyage
(7) Fort William
Suggested Bet: No
Race 7:
No doubt (1) Facundo has shown good ability but I expected a little more last prep. The trial this time in was good, gets 2kg claim and a good gate. Also won or placed in 4 of 5 at this track.
(2) Mishani Crown won three in a row last prep and the recent trial was a nice win at the GC. Another who can map well and should be in the finish.
Easy to make a case for (4) Carravilla. She has won or placed in 10 of 18, has won 3 of 4 at this track and just another that has trialled very well to be ready for this.
(3) Paleface Ringo is a consistent type who is suited at this trip but has a sticky gate.
Selections:
(4) Carravilla
(1) Facundo
(2) Mishani Crown
(3) Paleface Ringo
Suggested Bet: Small win (4) Carravilla
Race 8:
Was interesting to note very good support for (9) Ready To Ignite last start. Had not done much at all this prep and has a poor strike rate. He did give a sight though and took a decent one to beat him.
(4) Miss Chastain was beaten fair and square last start but that was 2nd up and I’d expect improvement 3rd up. In a good stable and Thompson rides.
(1) Luton Hoo is always competitive around this grade and comes here 4th up and ready to show best. Never been one of mine but the claim helps and some hope.
Selections:
(9) Ready To Ignite
(1) Luton Hoo
(4) Miss Chastain
(2) Smart As Smart
Suggested Bets: No
