Summary of Best Bets:
Race 5 #10 Measure Of Time – e/w if prices allow.
Race 7 #5 Mercurial Lady – Caught the eye last start and gets chance here.
Race 8 #6 Climactic – Won as a best for us last start and just feel there is something about this horse.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 1m
- Good weather. Good rail position.
- Not super confident but it will be a good meeting to follow.
Kay stats:
- Coming into the carnival and Munce stable is finding form, which doesn’t shock. Trained 10 of their last 50 but the ROI is not great -39%
- Vlad Duric has ridden 10 of his last 50 to win and ROI +25%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Bit of guess work with some of these.
Loved the debut run of (4) Kickup Rocky last prep and then may have trained off. Trial was OK this time in. He may want further but I do feel he has enough talent to win if they run along up front.
(5) Monarchal is also back for his second prep. Was good on debut and the trial leading into this was good also. Watch for market support.
(1) Baciami has shown plenty so far. The debut 2nd was in a hot race and the trials have been OK, it’s just the gate that is a concern.
(2) Bodmin Moor was a stupid price on debut but will be better for that experience and can run an improved race for sure.
Of those on debut I liked (11) Saxon Spirit in her trial. Looked to do it easy on speed and did most things right. Would have rathered a senior jock on for the debut is all.
Selections:
(4) Kickup Rocky
(2) Bodmin Moor
(11) Saxon Spirit
(5) Monarchal
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
Gee, it’s a handy little race this and the form will hold up.
I have liked (3) Champagne Lane from day 1. She did a great job in good races when last in work. Quiet sort of trial and she will be out the back but can win if we are on a fair track.
(4) Little Fella is a beauty too. Won 2 of 3 and looked like a good one in the making last prep. Trials have been good and comes back a gelding. Hard to hold out here.
I’d rather 1000m for (2) Vivika but she has class and gets Thompson on top. Attacked the line fresh and just needed one more stride to win. Will be in front of the main dangers and look the winner.
(5) Exceloquent might be the next best.
Selections:
(4) Little Fella
(3) Champagne Lane
(2) Vivika
(5) Exceloquent
Suggested Bet: Trifecta 3,4 // 2,3,4 // 2,3,4,5
Race 3:
(1) Crypto Magic had been good in Maiden grade and stepped up to a CL1 where well beaten last start. Rock hard fit and will find this easier.
The further, the better for (10) Empress Aspen. Bit of a plodder but continues to be strong late in races. Real staying type and will make good ground late if she doesn’t spot them too big of a start.
Selections:
(10) Empress Aspen
(1) Crypto Magic
(9) Shark Park
Suggested Bet: Small bet (10) Empress Aspen
Race 4:
I have some huge trust issues with these.
No doubt (1) Zoology will have support. Winner last start in town but just mixes form so much you never know what he is going to dish up. This looks easier than the race he won last start.
(5) Good Banter comes out of a Group 3 in Sydney and all signs say she is targeting something in the next month over our carnival. Better for the two runs back and she looks like the one they all have to beat. Looks to be a much better horse on wet ground and won’t get that here.
I’ve been waiting for (6) That’s Molly to win at big odds but she hasn’t got it done. Was best L200m of the race last time out and just 52kg again here suits. Could this be the day?
(7) Just Flying had been going OK and a little flat last start when I was keen on him. Drops 9.5kg and might prove very hard to run down.
Selections:
(1) Zoology
(5) Good Banter
(7) Just Flying
(6) That’s Molly
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5:
(1) Bon Vader mixed form in first prep but was hard in the market each run and showed ability without a win. Recent trial was good and might come back a better horse this time.
(4) Valencia Roc is better than Maiden grade but just doesn’t get it done. Has Thompson as a key booking but new stable and long break.
I reckon (10) Measure Of Time will have something to give in Qld. Was just plain in first prep but the recent trial up here was good. Don’t love the gate but he can win without surprising me.
Selections:
(10) Measure Of Time
(1) Bon Vader
(4) Valencia Roc
Suggested Bet: e/w (10) Measure Of Time
Race 6:
The toppy, (1) Nails Murphy, has loved life in Qld. Has been in career best form and love the 45 day freshen for him. They take the claim and still have 61.5kg though. Likes the track, likes the trip and a chance again.
(9) Laridae is another going as well as he can. The form from last start has been franked and with just 51.5kg, could be hard to hold out late in the race.
(5) Smart As Smart is a last start winner while (4) I’m Heroic has been good without winning lately.
Selections:
(1) Nails Murphy
(9) Laridae
(5) Smart As Smart
(4) I’m Heroic
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7:
Good, competitive Class 3.
(5) Mercurial Lady has first run for the new stable recently and attacked the line late there and had ‘back me next time’ written all over it. Draws a gate to be in the first few pairs and Duric is in good form.
(11) Zoufani has exceeded my expectations. Just continues to run well every time she steps out. Won or placed in 7 of 8, in Gollan yard and freshened before this 4th up run. Very suitable race for her.
(6) Pocketmoney was good last prep and won a couple of races over the road. Quiet trial so respect any money moves on the day for her.
(7) Red Defcon has run well in much better races than this. Just been OK this prep but could surprise a few here.
Selections:
(5) Mercurial Lady
(11) Zoufani
(6) Pocketmoney
(7) Red Defcon
Suggested Bet: Win (5) Mercurial Lady. Saver on (11) Zoufani if prices allow.
Race 8:
Step up in grade for (6) Climactic but he is a nice horse. Had 560 days off before this prep and both runs have been great, including the last start win in a CL1. Still has a lot of upside.
I’ve never been with (7) Dark Arts but, gee, he’s been consistent and might be going better than ever. Dominant winner last start and Thompson is going better than anyone up here.
(2) Heman is one I struggle to catch but he is above average on his day. Solid last prep and look for him late.
(10) Robrick has shown enough down south to measure up but I’d like to see one for the new stable.
(11) Star Rapper has been good for the new stable and been around the money each run. Just needs a good ride early to be in it late.
Selections:
(6) Climactic
(7) Dark Arts
(2) Heman
(10) Robrick
Suggested Bets: Win (6) Climactic
Race 9:
A bit of guess work and taking them on trust here.
(6) Tophet looked plain last start but they went fast and it was a swoopers race. Being forgiving of that and should get every chance after mapping well here.
Don’t love the races (7) Cool Panels comes through but he has been consistent and has a good overall record. Another that maps to get every chance.
Class is (1) Kaluakoi and I liked the trial. No doubt he will be better after a couple of runs and over more ground. Still have to respect the best horse in the race.
Forget the heavy track run last start for (10) Here The Crowd. Always an issue when you’ve only won 2 of 17 but Maher trains and comes here set to peak 4th up. Will find this easier than the Victorian races and only knock is a bad gate.
(11) Kinross Lane caught the eye late last start. Thought she might have been a Toowoomba horse only. Not 100% sure what to make of her but that last start says she can win.
(12) Trapedo is consistent but only the 2 wins from 20.
Selections:
(6) Tophet
(10) Here The Crowd
(1) Kaluakoi
(11) Kinross Lane
(7) Cool Panels
Suggested Bets: No bet
