Summary of Best Bets:
Race 8 (2) Metaphorically
Turf Talk:
- Rail 10.5m
- Assuming this will play to the front but guessing what Eagle Farm does with all the different rails and how the jockeys will ride it is never easy
Stats that matter:
- Matt Hoysted has 11 winners from his last 50 runners and small profit ROI +1.5%
- Kelly Schweida hasn’t had a strong team lately but is doing a good job to have 9 winners from his last 50, but -20% ROI. Has a couple of live chances today.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Gee this is a doozy to start. So many first starters, so you have to watch the market.
(9) Threeeyedwitch showed ability without being great in his first prep. Runner up at both career starts. Trials have been ok this time in but the stable will have it ready to go.
(10) Xtravagant Johnny is on debut but recent trial was ok. The Gollan/Thompson factor might means he starts shorter than he should.
(4) King Of The Road and (5) Legenderry have trialled ok and might be next best in a very tricky race to start.
Selections:
(9) Threeeyedwitch
(10) Xtravagant Johnny
(4) King Of The Road
(5) Legenderry
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
Unlikely to get a start but I liked the run on (14) Maria Clara on debut at the coast. On speed, gave a kick and sure to benefit from the day at the track.
(11) Iransofar went around in good quality races last prep and will find this easier. Nice effort in a trial leading into this and looks the one they all have to beat with the race experience under her belt.
(13) Summer Sensation has more class than most. Can be a stronger and better horse this time in work.
The top ten are all first starters and nightmare for analysts.
Most punters might just revert to Gollan/Thompson combo and (1) Boonie Boom. Won her only trial after leading and looks a decent one.
Gollan has apprentices on his other two. (3) Crypto Chick looked just ok in the recent trial but it was behind a couple of handy ones. (4) Exceed The Sale also been ok at trials.
(10) Sarigan was a good on speed trial winner and gets a 2kg claim to help.
Selections:
(11) Iransofar
(13) Summer Sensation
(14) Maria Clara
(10) Sarigan
Suggested Bet: No
Race 3:
This will be the biggest go of the day. There wouldn’t be a better placed horse in Australia. (7) Margot’s Deel is 1kg above the minimum and she is 15 rating points better than the next rated horse. Only beaten 2.6L in a G3 two starts back. Has been freshened and should win if the track is fair and you ca make ground.
Liked what (6) Diamond Show did last start. Got back and was the 2nd best L400m of the race. Gets 3kg claim and will be good again late.
Race drops away quickly but (1) Ready Azz Eva rock hard fit now and ready to show best. (5) Our Smokeshow also fitter for two runs back.
Selections:
(7) Margot’s Deel
(6) Diamond Show
(5) Our Smokeshow
(1) Ready Azz Eva
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
Gee this lot mix their form horribly.
(6) Cool Drinks is still lightly raced and only been with Healy for two runs. Dominant win fresh and solid last time out in a bm60. Maps well and gets every chance 3rd up.
Waller has (3) Cansort who is also lightly raced. Lacks a turn of foot but has enough ability to win here. Been in the money his last three starts and decent jock on top. Blinkers first time might do the trick.
(1).Cast Party and (2) The Big Blue seem to run well one start and horrible the next. Could be competitive on their (good day).
Selections:
(3) Cansort
(6) Cool Drinks
(1) Cast Party
(2) The Big Blue
Suggested Bet: No
Race 5:
(8) Edge Of Infinity is a 9 start maiden but usually strong late in races. Was well held but runner up last start here over 1300m. Gate is no help but this is suitable.
(3) Moscow Mule comes out of the same race and was 3rd. That was on debut so you’d expect natural improvement here.
(9) Had It All will go forward to overcome the gate. Was good on speed last start at Doomben on a track that suited the front and fence. Can be in the firing line for a long time.
(13) Toobloos has been good at both runs this prep in plain races. To this trip suits and gets a 3kg claim to help. Might be the one.
(2) Lottery Link too far back and no hope last start. Good through the line and EF might suit better.
Selections:
(13) Toobloos
(9) Had It All
(8) Edge Of Infinity
(2) Lottery Link
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
Just another open race where nothing would surprise.
135 days between runs for (1) Holy Racket but he is a genuine Saturday horse. Last time he was in this grade it was a dominant metropolitan win (3.5L over this track/trip). A repeat of that wins again.
(2) Heartoni doesn’t have the best record at this track but is tactically versatile and gets a good 2kg claim. Back to firmer ground won’t hurt and might be the main danger to the top weight.
(3) Invahir is a bush galloper but has run well in town many times. Also a winner of 10 from 32 so you have to respect.
(4) Krakarib was consistent most of last prep and ran well in decent races. Just the 4 wins from 31 starts is the little query for me.
Selections:
(1). Holy Racket
(2) Heartoni
(4) Krakarib
(3) Invahir
Suggested Bet: No
Race 7:
A few last start winners make this race a bit more interesting than the others.
Not sure about (1) Teelg. Has been around the money each run and broke maiden status last start. All on wet ground and not sure what to think on top of the ground. May well be better?
(3) Dust Cloud had been knocking on the door and won well last start. Conditions there were suitable but the win was solid. Thompson stays on and maps right up on speed with the good gate.
(4) Devine Squire has been good the last few runs. 2nd best L400m of the race last time out and good through the line. This trip and track should be what he is after.
(10) La Profecia is Gollan and comes here off a good maiden win. Wide gate but can still run into this late.
Selections:
(4) Devine Squire
(3) Dust Cloud
(1) Teelg
(10) La Proficia
Suggested Bet: No
Race 8:
Easily the best race of the day.
(2) Metaphorically has been very good on his day but he can mix form. Was horrible fresh but was 1/5 lame. Then a plain trial before a very nice trail late June. Blinkers go on and could be hard to run down.
(1) Gorbachev has won 4 of 11 and the recent trial was good at the coast. Hasn’t missed a place in three fresh runs and 2kg claim helps. Best form might be on wet ground.
(5) Fragile Love made very good ground out wide last start. Come from a hopeless spot there and it was a good effort. 3kg apprentice rides and this is a suitable target.
I thought (6) Shelstein was going to be a very good one but hasn’t reached the level I thought. Does have ability so watch the market closely with it.
Selections:
(2) Metaphorically
(5) Fragile Love
(1) Gorbachev
(6) Shelstein
Suggested Bets: Win (2) Metaphorically
