Summary of Best Bets
Race 6: (1) Churchill’s Choice e/w
Race 9: (8) Boomtown Boss e/w
Turf Talk
- Rail 2m.
- Some good weather and no worry about the track this week.
- Will they still get off the inside? Don’t think half the jocks know, so bit of a guess there. I’d say they leave a couple off the fence alone and come from about lane 3 out to about lane 10.
- As always on this track, watch and learn as the day unfolds. Races 5 onwards look a lot more exciting than early in the day anyway.
Stats that matter
- Michael Freedman has 11 winners from his last 50, striking at 22% with a ROI of +58%.
- Rachel King has ridden 9 winners from her last 50, striking at 18% with a ROI of +13.6%. She also has a good book of rides today.
Race by race overview
Race 1
Full field to kick off Oaks Day but a bit of a bludger of a race to start.
Feeling for those on (17) Cavalry Man last start. Should have won and draws perfectly again here. King is in good form, the horse is in good form and he will look the winner at some stage for sure. Loves this track/trip (4:2:0:1). (13) Express Payment won that race but meets Cavalry Man 2.5kg worse off here.
The Munce yard is not going great but (11) Kaluakoi is a ripper. Has won 2 of 3 this prep and I liked the fight late to hold them off last start. Rock-hard fit and should push forward from the poor gate.
Have to forgive the heavy track run of (4) Rotagilla last time out. Some good efforts before that run and he should get a decent run around midfield for Clark. His best form is good enough.
Selections:
(17) Cavalry Man
(4) Rotagilla
(11) Kaluakoi
(14) Diamond Epic
Suggested bet: No bet at the prices.
Race 2
Hate benchmark racing at the best of times, let alone on a Group 1 card, but here we are.
(9) Now Is The Hour is as honest as they come. Likes to lead and had to go further back than they would have liked last start. Effort was good and it took a good one to beat him. He will be right on speed and in the firing line for a long time here. Berry goes on for Gollan and he is the one to beat.
Stablemate (17) Balance The Books was not far off him last start and has good ability. Just 52kg, Thompson on, and gets a gate where they can hopefully sit midfield and launch late.
(4) Restonica has won or placed in 13 of 19 and gets 3kg off to help. Gate 1 is ideal, can let the speed go and get the box seat. Winner at this track and trip first and second runs of this prep.
You know what you will get with (6) Town Crier. Has won 7 of 22 and likes Eagle Farm. Would rather a senior jockey on, but 3kg off will not hurt.
No idea what to do with (10) Verdoux. Some really good form in March but looked like the jockey did not try last start to my eye. Could have gone inside and just stayed behind traffic. Complete forgive and feel like I might need a penny on at the $8 just in case.
Selections:
(9) Now Is The Hour
(10) Verdoux
(17) Balance The Books
(4) Restonica
(6) Town Crier
Suggested bet: Win (9) Now Is The Hour and smaller (10) Verdoux.
Race 3
(2) Flying Destiny is in career-best form and has won four on the trot at $6.50, $13, $3.30 and $11. If you have been on, you cannot jump off. Up 4.5kg on the last run but gets a nice run from the gate and a tempo to suit.
Hard to catch (4) Steady Ready these days but he is a genuine speedster who draws the inside gate. If they want to lead they can, if they go too hard he can box seat. Won or placed in 7 of 11 at the track.
(6) Monte Supreme has not won this prep but has been consistent. Blinkers go back on, Rachel King is in good form and if the splits appear at the right time she can trouble these late.
(9) Zouperb was excellent fresh behind Cigar Flick at Listed level. Blinkers first time and watch the market with her.
(7) Sunrise only comes out of a CL4 but was a nice winner at the Gold Coast. Sherry rides and gate 2 is a help.
Selections:
(2) Flying Destiny
(6) Monte Supreme
(4) Steady Ready
(9) Zouperb
Suggested bet: No bet.
Race 4
Still learning about a lot of these and not a lot of confidence doing this race.
(9) Shintono was well held by the winner in the 1350m Listed race at Doomben. Just did not have the turn of foot there but to 1500m at Eagle Farm will be more to her liking. Might sit on the leader’s back and should get every possible chance.
(6) Glenorchy was a pass mark without being great on debut. Sure to take benefit from the run and Berry rides for Waller. Could improve sharply.
(4) Alto Luna is limited but this trip should be suitable.
(2) Gold Czech was good last prep and finished off well behind a couple of handy ones last start. Has trialled on a heavy track in preparation for this.
Selections:
(9) Shintono
(6) Glenorchy
(2) Gold Czech
(4) Alto Luna
Suggested bet: No bet.
Race 5
A heap of them come through the race at Scone and I am not convinced it is the best formline. (5) Miss Freelove got up the inside to beat them all. (13) Shady Road was every bit as good. Gorgeous was extremely unlucky at Scone and then beaten fair and square in town last week.
I have always thought (15) Champagne Lane is up to winning a race like this. Flopped last start but it was a heavy track and she had a poor recovery. Look for them to sit closer from the gate and be a big improver here at 50/1.
I have never liked (1) Earn To Burn over 1200m but he was the best L200m over 1110m and a winner last start. A good gate is a big help. I would like (7) Foreign Press more from a gate and over 1100m. Still think she will improve off the good fresh run and does like the track. Third in the same race was (12) Sword Of Legacy and she was the unlucky runner. Just lost momentum there and has been excellent since the stable change. Horror gate but right on target for this.
(16) Chains Of Love only comes through a Class 1 at Scone and has gate 16. The form in the first prep was good and I love that they tipped her straight out and gave her time. Absolutely kicked their heads in fresh and might be a good one in the making.
Amazing to think two that come out of a maiden can be leading chances next start in a Listed race but that is the case with (14) Crash The Party and (8) Sylph. Maybe a slight lean to Crash The Party but she would love 1400m now.
Selections:
(15) Champagne Lane
(12) Sword Of Legacy
(16) Chains Of Love
(7) Foreign Press
Suggested bet: Small win bets at big odds on (15) Champagne Lane and (12) Sword Of Legacy.
Race 6
Nice race to kick the quaddie off. Not a great deal of speed engaged and just a fair tempo.
Everything looks well suited for (1) Churchill’s Choice here. Draws to be about midfield with cover and the big Eagle Farm straight will allow her to get through the gears. She will be hard to hold out late. Best L200m splits in her last two starts and airborne at present.
A heap of these bumped into each other last start with (2) Pinito winning and (7) Hyperbolic just as good in second. Pinito actually meets them all 2kg better off at the weights and draws to get the run of the race again. This race looks a touch harder but it is hard to find a knock. Hyperbolic is in career-best form and can run well again.
Not sure what to do with (9) Declichy Boulevard. Showed good ability early, then had 400-plus days off and returned a dominant winner. Would love a drop of rain but my gut says she can be a player here.
(14) Margot’s Deel gets blinkers on for the first time and Craig Williams rides. If she can land closer she can have some of the best late splits.
I thought (5) Surfin’ Bird would go to another level this prep and win big races. Had every possible hope last start and was not good enough. Third-up for Waterhouse and Bott so I do not want to completely sack her yet.
(10) Pippie Beach and (11) Our Queen are going well enough for exotic players to consider.
Selections:
(1) Churchill’s Choice
(2) Pinito
(7) Hyperbolic
(9) Declichy Boulevard
Suggested bet: Each-way (1) Churchill’s Choice.
Race 7
A stack of different form lines to try and line up here. Nearly too many chances to name and not many results would surprise.
(2) Kronenbourg has been exceptional his last couple and loves this track (12:4:2:1). Was wide throughout and brave behind War Eternal there. Maps well here and meets that horse 2kg better off at the weights. (3) War Eternal was a winner in the Listed Bernborough last start with Purton aboard. Has been consistent and just needs a good ride early. Rises 4kg on the last-start win and is yet to win on good ground.
(12) King Zephyr might be too good for them but the wide gate means he is likely to settle last. Looked the winner his last two but had too much work to do. I have a feeling it might be the same again here.
(4) Sun God was good last prep and excellent winning fresh at Scone. He is a must for exotics and my only little query is the 6kg rise in weight.
Initially I thought (5) Harry’s Yacht would rather 1400m but his late splits have been great and the effort to take off early in a slowly run race last time was very good. Dare say he saves ground and tests the inside lanes.
I do not love the gate for (8) Formal Display but he is in great form. Did all the chasing and won easily two starts ago. Was wide throughout at Scone and very brave. With any luck early he can trouble these for sure.
Selections:
(8) Formal Display
(5) Harry’s Yacht
(12) King Zephyr
(2) Kronenbourg
(4) Sun God
Suggested bet: Split win bets on (5) Harry’s Yacht and (8) Formal Display.
Race 8
Competitive Oaks and many of the leading hopes have drawn poorly.
I was leaning other ways but after drawing gate 6, (1) Panova comes right into this for me. The win in the Australasian Oaks was outstanding. Travelled well and was never losing there. Nice tick-over trial since and looks right on track.
I was all over (8) Chispa in the lead-up but things just did not pan out there. She got shuffled back too far and they walked in front. It was mission impossible and the effort was outstanding. Horrible gate here but she can be strong late and is a winning hope for sure.
(3) Fireball Miss won that Group 2 Roses lead-up and got a beautiful run in transit. Showed a turn of foot and all her runs have been top shelf. Needs a good ride early but she is classy and Maher will have her spot on for the grand final.
(7) Grand Omaha draws to get the right run midfield with cover. She has recorded top-three last 200m splits in her last four runs.
(11) Parvenu has built into the prep beautifully and I loved the way she went through the line late last start. Being her first prep is a little query but she only looks to be getting stronger.
(10) Solid Gold may have been a touch too close to a hot speed last week in the Derby and can be competitive here.
Selections:
(1) Panova
(8) Chispa
(3) Fireball Miss
(11) Parvenu
Suggested bet: Quinella 1,3,8
First 4: 1 // 3,8,11 // 3,6,7,8,10,11 // 3,6,7,8,10,11 (Guide $60 = 100%)
Race 9
Really good race to finish the day. Good luck if involved in the quaddie.
I loved the blinkers going on (8) Boomtown Boss last start. His sister needed them to show her best and he just had no luck at all. Forget he went around there. Berry, gate 6, third-up and ready to show his best.
(2) Manaal is a genuine Group mare who draws gate 1 and has had two trials to prepare for this first-up assignment. She has more class than most of these.
(14) Chidiac is just a winner. She has saluted seven times in 12 starts and comes here off a Group 3 win. Likely to box-seat and get every possible chance in the run. She will be hard to run down late.
There was not the clearest path late for (9) Barber last start and the effort was okay. Good second-up record (6:2:1:1), Melham rides and the gate is ideal.
(10) King Of Sparta was a pass mark at Scone and I like the fact he drops from 61kg to 55kg here. Has a turn of foot on his day and still has a good win in him.
Selections:
(8) Boomtown Boss
(14) Chidiac
(2) Manaal
(10) King Of Sparta
Suggested bet: Each-way (8) Boomtown Boss.
