Summary of Best Bets:
Race 8 (2) Valorous Power
Turf Talk:
- Rail 9m
- Should be a mostly fine week and a good track.
Stats that matter:
- Matt Hoysted has 10 winners from his last 50 runners and ROI +9.8%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(4) Dust Cloud was decent last time out and Thompson rides for Gollan. Looks a limited type but so do the rest of these.
(1) Moscow Mule will be better for the experience here on debut and probably want further. Just looks a half decent one off the trials and a good run would not surprise.
(7) Love Rebel has been more than good enough and has some upside. In a weak race, she comes here 3rd up, fitter and ready to show best.
Selections:
(1) Moscow Mule
(4) Dust Cloud
(7) Love Rebel
(2) Prophet Of Destiny
Suggested Bet: No
Race 2:
(8) Canya Berich was 600+ days between runs and may have needed it fresh. Did look to be travelling well when held up at the 150m mark fresh and should have finished closer. 1600m second up a query and I’d rather them have gone to race 1.
(5) Dust Cloud was decent in the same race last start and Thompson rides for Gollan.
(9) Saturday’s Girl is the most consistent horse and always great late split. Just a follower though and still a maiden after 20+ runs.
Selections:
(8) Canya Berich
(9) Saturday’s Girl
(5) Dust Cloud
(2) Iconify
(10) Speegle
Suggested Bet: (8) Canya Berich
Race 3:
Creeping up in the weights but hard to go past (1) Sosino here. Looking for the hat-trick off a dominant wet track win and then suited by a on speed track at Ipswich. Sits near the speed and hard to beat again.
(2) Grinzinger Knight has been good and should be suited on speed. Can mix form a bit but could be hard to run down after the 3kg claim for the apprentice.
(3) High Dandy had decent Sydney form two preps back and should be suited in Qld. Was a nice winner first up for the new stable and can strip fitter from that run. Has won two of three 2nd up.
Selections:
(1).Sosino
(3) High Dandy
(2) Grinzinger Knight
(7) Miss Chastain
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
Ordinary race.
(11) Our Huntress has placed in all six stars without winning yet. That southern form is better than our and looks to find a more than winnable race. Good stable and jock helps.
(7) Agadoo is Tasmanian and the fresh run up here was very good on wet ground. Fitter now and looks a leading in hope here.
(8) Arctic Bright had been very consistent until last start where a bit plain. Back to 1200m suits and could bounce back without surprising.
Selections:
(11) Our Huntress
(7) Argadoo
(8) Arctic Bright
(9) Enterprise Jamayka
Suggested Bet: Win (11) Our Huntress
Race 5:
(4) Moonan Quartz has started over the odds nearly every career run to date. Winner last start at a decent price and has the good on speed pattern to compete again here.
(1) Damehood has been good for the new stable and was a nice winner last start. Apprentice claim will help and it’s not an overly strong race.
(5) Diamond Show wasn’t far off in the same race last start. Best part was through the line and can strip fitter from that first up effort.
(8) Hermione Prancer won it’s last two runs before a break and is the one with the most upside. In the Waller yard and keep a close eye on what the market does.
Selections:
(4) Moonan Quartz
(1) Damehood
(8) Hermione Prancer
(5) Diamond Show
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
Not sure what to make of (6) Siesta. Decent record without being great but joining Gollan and could improve lengths. Won it’s most recent trial at the coast in decent fashion and looks a live chance. Gollan also has (3) Mehretu who has shown glimpses without being great. They take the 3kg claim to carry just 54kg here.
Expected more from (7) Stein last start. Slight drift there and I’d need to see some support 2nd up to think it will improve.
(2) Over Spray and (1) Teelg both broke maiden status last start. This obviously harder but both have another win or two in store at some stage.
Selections:
(6) Siesta
(7) Stein
(1) Teelg
(2) Over Spray
Suggested Bet: No
Race 7:
(6) Bonfire Spark has mixed her form this prep but the good days have been very handy. Awkward gate not ideal, I just think if she brings her best she can beat these.
I thought (2) Arisphere was going to end up a better horse than she has. She got through the grades and just hasn’t kept progressing after that. Still more than up to this grade and gets a claim to help.
(7) Fragile Love had been very good for Dunn and now moves to Gollan. A while between runs but has had a trial and this looks a very suitable race.
Selections:
(6) Bonfire Spark
(7) Fragile Love
(2) Arisphere
(11) Blue Allure
Suggested Bet: No
Race 8:
They had (6) Bodhran in a winnable race at the GC but scratched their on the weekend. Can win here but have a wide gate and apprentice which is never ideal.
(5) Riez Souvant is lightly raced for Waller and might be the one who can keep improving. Needs a good ride from a sticky date but has the upside.
(2) Valourous Power was a sharp improver last start out to the mile. Best late splits there and rock hard fit now after that run. Was it a flash in the pan or ready to show best.
(3) San Gabriel and (8) Empress Of Japan next best and some winning hope.
The toppy (1) Divakara has been in good form but another with a bad gate and has a poor record on this track (6:0:1:0).
Selections:
(2) Valorous Power
(6) Bodhran
(5) Riez Souvant
(8) Empress Of Japan
Suggested Bets: (2) Valorous Power
