Summary of Best Bets:
Race 4 #4 Cabaletto – Solid in a better race fresh. Well placed with limited chances here.
Race 8 #14 Krumac – Fitter for two runs back and has been good in better races last prep.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 9m
- Never love the rail out this far but good weather and I’d say we should be on a Good 4 by race day.
- Just have to pay attention early to any pattern, not that the jocks get it right very often if we are being real about it. David Fowler mentioned in broadcast how they get off the fence here every week and one of the last winners don’t go around a horse nearly every week.
Key stats:
- Waller update- I know he has a million runners but this year’s stats has him striking at 13% and ROI -17%
- Mallyon was in great form earlier in year but dried up recently with just 4 from his last 50 and ROI -68%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(7) Desanto might be a good one. Was caught wide on debut, used a lot of petrol and effort was not bad. Tipped out after that and the recent trial was outstanding. Can be a bigger, stronger horse this time in.
(4) Rewrite looks well placed off two placings at the provincials in NSW. That form usually just wins up here and in a good stable. I think he looks OK but still a bit limited.
(5) Aristocratic Girl has been good the last three runs and very solid last time out. Just feel her chances go up if we get rain on the day somehow.
Selections:
(7) Desanto
(4) Rewrite
(5) Aristocratic Girl
Suggested Bet: (7) Desanto
Race 2:
This is a competitive race.
Wasn’t much between (6) Pearls In June and (5) Mercatello last start. Pearls In June just got held up there and 1200m at EF should be way more suitable. Mercatello is well bred and gets blinkers first time, could really improve her.
(3) Boozie Miss is no star but was wide and a forgive last start. Has had a soft trial and don’t let her get under your guard, a must for exotics and a winning hope.
(8) Russian Tempest was good at the latest trial and can be around the money on debut.
Selections:
(6) Pearls In June
(5) Mercatello
(3) Boozie Miss
(8) Russian Tempest
Suggested Bet: None
Race 3:
I didn’t give (3) Elnajeeb much of a hope last start but the run was good. Just nosed out in a driving finish and a couple of important additions here. Thompson rides and blinkers go on first time.
(4) King Cobama is no star but like the fact he returns a gelding after mixing form in his first prep. Trial was soft and just blew some cobwebs off. Market the best guide but expecting a good run.
I thought (2) Delicious Derek would have run a lot better last start and he’s frustrating. Weak race here so he can go close but has to improve on last start.
Selections:
(3) Elnajeeb
(4) King Cobama
(2) Delicious Derek
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (3) Elnajeeb
Race 4:
(4) Cabaletto is better than 68 grade. She won two on the trot last prep before bumping into a good one and then getting tipped out. Was the best of the on pace horses fresh and she was good with the 58kg. Can strip fitter now and looks really well placed.
(5) Missile One could be the main danger but is 275 days between runs. No knock on the recent trials and market will give us a guide on fitness levels. Has run well in better races than this.
I was disappointed with (10) Impact Zone but it was first run for the new stable and was off a 221 day break. Could be the improver with that under his belt.
Selections:
(4) Cabaletto
(5) Missile One
(10) Impact Zone
(2) Air We Go
Suggested Bet: Win (4) Cabaletto
Race 5:
More than interesting race and at least half a dozen chances.
I’ve always liked (13) Castello Grande and felt this would be his prep. Not much went right last start but I still didn’t like the distance he was beaten. I just feel he might get the right run and improve sharply here.
(10) Amahni’s Girl was well placed but flat footed last start. Will be fitter for the run and anything like the form from last prep means she’d go close here.
This looks harder but (9) Sir Winnie was good fresh and then very good winning last start. Peaks here and hard to knock winning form on a lightly raced type.
(8) Rock The Sunrise is handy enough and strong late but just lacks a turn of foot to go through the grades. Another who strips fitter 3rd up though.
(2) Don’tcha Think had no luck last start at a crucial point and he looked to have a bit to offer. Good apprentice claims but gate not ideal.
Selections:
(9) Sir Winnie
(13) Castello Grande
(10) Amahni’s Girl
(2) Don’tcha Think
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
Huge win by (1) Blakemore Avenue last start. That was on a heavy surface but, gee, she looked good. Does jump 4kg too here.
(2) Carbonara bumped into some handy ones through the prep but raced well at the 1200m. Maybe the 1350m just caught her out last start. Few weeks between runs and can bounce back.
Gollan has a four pronged attack and not much between them. (3) Dismantle and (7) Immediate (scr) went over the line together last start. Both probably rather 1100m to be at their best. (5) Some Style was a shocker last start but will be fitter now. (9) Esprit Du Jour is ready to peak 3rd up and draws well.
Pretty average race with a lot of limited types.
Selections:
(2) Carbonara
(1) Blakemore Avenue
(3) Dismantle
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (2) Carbonara
Race 7:
The claim will help (1) Code In Time but still has a big weight. The fresh run was OK in a race where nothing happened. They just followed each other around. Held his ground, fitter and to 1200m suits.
I haven’t been on (3) Dark Arts at all since he joined Gollan but I have to admit he has been consistent and only a matter of time until he wins one.
(10) Quickzou is also Gollan and can be on speed for a long way here. Ran in a very strong CL1 race last time out and this might actually be easier.
Selections:
(1) Code In Time
(3) Dark Arts
(10) Quickzou
(9) Sir Maurice
Suggested Bet: Nope
Race 8:
There’s a few here that will win more races.
(5) Wiliamtheconqueror was unlucky not to win two back but got the job done last time out in good fashion. Probably peaks fitness wise here, Thornton sticks but the gate isn’t ideal, needs a good ride early.
(14) Krumac ran a few beauties in town last prep without winning. The first two runs this prep over unsuitable trips were good. Looks set to show best here and looks a decent way to finish the day.
(13) Diversity also went around in good races and can be a better horse this prep. Can give a kick on speed but a little one paced late.
(8) Subterrain showed more than enough in his initial prep. May need this run but Thompson rides from a good gate and if there is support, I’d be respecting for sure.
(10) Quit ‘N’ Tap bolted in and looked great on debut. Only four in it and not sure how to line that up.
Selections:
(14) Krumac
(5) Wiliamtheconqueror
(10) Quit ‘N’ Tap
(8) Subterrain
(13) Diversity
Suggested Bets: E/w (14) Krumac
