The Epsom is back with a bang this year after a decade where it has sat in the immense shadow of The Everest.
The spring mile has drawn together a field to match the best handicap in the country, the Doncaster, in 2026, and its autumn equivalent hints at finding the winner.
The Doncaster has made a habit of bringing together our best milers, while the Cups in Melbourne are more likely to bring in progressive stayers trying to beat the handicap.
Like most handicaps, the best-weighted horse is where you want to be, and history says that is at the top of the weights in mile handicaps at Randwick.
The past four Doncaster winners have had a benchmark rating of 110 or above and, before that, Mr Brightside and Cascadian, both stars, got in with very competitive weights.
It doesn’t stop there. Five of the first seven in this year’s Doncaster were rated 110 or above. It was the same in 2025; in 2024 it was first and third, while 2023 winner Mr Brightside and Fangirl, who finished seventh, also met the criteria.
The Epsom hasn’t had the same quality in the past decade, with only 16 horses running with a rating of 110 or above, but five of them have won. If you go back another year, Winx was a 110-rater when she won the Epsom.
The half-dozen have all had star qualities, with Happy Clapper, Hartnell, Probabeel, Autumn Glow and Winx all elite milers, while Top Ranked, a dead-heat winner in 2022, was placed in a Lockinge Stakes before coming to Australia.
The top six in Saturday’s Epsom are rated 110 or above, a clear indication of the quality of this year’s renewal.
Autumn Boy looks the best-treated of the half-dozen, while New Zealand’s unbeaten mare Well Written is clearly the worst.
Autumn Boy went into the Doncaster with a rating of 110, when trounced by Sheza Alibi, but did have nearly two lengths on the rest of the field.
He has only gone up one point from the Doncaster and, six months older, showed he is ready to peak by finishing runner-up in the Makybe Diva Stakes.
Since winning the Caulfield Guineas last spring, he might have only won once, in the Rosehill Guineas, but three of his defeats have been to the freak that is Sheza Alibi.
He has been next best each time at Group 1 level and they are not run-of-the-mill Group 1s: the Randwick Guineas, the Doncaster and the Makybe Diva Stakes.
If he was the winner of any of those three races, he would have a couple of kilos more and probably wouldn’t be here.
Compare that to Well Written. Although a two-time winner at the top level in the New Zealand 1000 Guineas and Proisir Stakes, her record lacks the big test.
As a four-year-old mare, she is rated 114, higher than Autumn Glow, Probabeel and Winx were rated heading into their Epsom wins.
Autumn Glow wasn’t a Group 1 winner last year, but carried a 111 rating with ease, while Probabeel and Winx were on 110 for their Epsom wins.
Probabeel carried New Zealand form, winning the Karaka Millions at two and three before winning the Surround Stakes, while racking up Group 1 seconds in the Flight Stakes and Vinery Stud Stakes at three.
Winx won a Queensland Oaks and was second in a Flight Stakes and the Australian Oaks as a three-year-old.
They were all battle-hardened, whereas Well Written hasn’t left New Zealand, although she is a Karaka Millions winner at three and a Kiwi winner.
Well Written might be a star, but she is awfully weighted for her first major test. She will need to be a superstar to beat the best Australia has to offer at a mile on Saturday.
Ceolwulf is a four-time Group 1 winner at a mile, including an Epsom and two King Charles Stakes at Randwick. Tom Kitten is a two-time All-Star Mile winner; Idle Flyer is a Queen Of The Turf winner; while Lady Shenandoah is a two-time Randwick Group 1 winner, including the 2024 Flight Stakes.
It is a quality line-up, with Attica, a Spring Champion Stakes winner, well served at the weights, while Militarize is a Champagne Stakes winner over the course, a Randwick Guineas runner-up and twice Doncaster-placed.
Epsom winners rated 110 and above
2025 Autumn Glow 111
2022 Top Ranked 110
2020 Probabeel 110
2018 Hartnell 113
2017 Happy Clapper 113
2015 Winx 110
Doncaster winners rated 110 and above
2026 Sheza Alibi 111
2025 Stefi Magnetica 113
2024 Celestial Legend 110
2023 Mr Brightside 114
2018 Happy Clapper 118
2017 It’s Somewhat 110
2016 Winx 120
