- Ka Ying Rising (7) – David Hayes – Zac Purton – $1.75
David Hayes brings the Hong Kong champ to the richest 1200m race in the world. He draws perfectly in barrier 7, in a race where there’ll be plenty of pressure around him. I could see him landing outside the leader, but more likely, the 1-1. He brings figures to this race that simply the 11 other runners won’t get near if he turns up at his best. The big query is whether he’s had the right prep to produce that best – for me, that’s a no. The 41 days between runs, an average trial, and his $1.75 quote are all factors I want to take on. No doubt he can win, but for me, he’s vulnerable at the price.
- Briasa (10) – M, W & J Hawkes – Tyler Schiller – $15.00
The first 200m is more important for Briasa than for any other galloper in the field. He brings the ideal profile to this event – third-up (seven of eight winners have been third-up) and coming through the key lead-ups, The Shorts and Premiere Stakes.
Another big tick is his strength past 1200m – in recent years, when there’s been a fast tempo, horses with proven stamina beyond 1200m rise to the top. He has tactical speed, but the big question mark is what they do from the draw. He can’t win going all the way back to last, but faces the possibility of being trapped three-wide if they roll forward. If you’re betting, you’re banking on a peach of a ride from young gun Tyler Schiller. A definite winning hope.
- Overpass (9) – Bjorn Baker – Joshua Parr – $51
I like the setup for Overpass this year. There’s no doubt his best runs have come first-up in his preparation – those include two Quokkas, a G1 Winterbottom, a Sydney Stakes, and a second in a G1 TJ Smith behind Briasa. He draws well enough to follow Ka Ying Rising across from the gate, and has the option to land outside Mazu or take up the lead himself. The knock is that he’s a rising seven-year-old with 32 starts under his belt – for him to win, he’ll need to go to a whole new career peak, which is a big ask for an older gelding.
- Jimmysstar (11) – Ciaron Maher – Ethan Brown – $11.00
He possesses the best turn of foot and finishing speed in the race, but his kryptonite is his lack of early pace. The gate likely sees him land dead last in the run, which is an immediate concern.The positive is if a three-wide line establishes early – if the likes of Briasa and Magic Time are caught wide, it brings him right into the race. His profile suits – third-up, strong beyond 1200m – and we’ve seen the likes of Giga Kick and Yes Yes Yes come from the rear to win high-pressure Everests.
- War Machine (4) – Ben, Will & JD Hayes – Tim Clark – $10.00
He’s been the market mover since the barrier draw. He brings a completely different profile to any we’ve seen over the eight editions – a Stradbroke winner who had a minor setback before destroying his rivals by two lengths first-up in the G3 Gilgai Stakes. He gets a great map here and should find the leader’s back. The query for me is how “dominant” that first-up win truly was – how much did it take out of him, and can he go to a new level so soon after? Overall, he’s the map horse but looks too short now.
- Mazu (2) – Joseph Pride – Jason Collett – $201
He looks the likely leader on paper and should find that position with ease from barrier 2. He’ll inject plenty of speed into the race, which is key for the tempo, but as a winning chance, his $201 quote looks about right. Prefer others.
- Jedibeel (3) – Brad Widdup – Kerrin McEvoy – $251
A smart business decision by Mulberry Racing to select one of their own horses, but as for the race itself, he’s not up to this level.
- Angel Capital (8) – Chris Waller – Ben Melham – $26
He stomped around The Valley fresh, putting a gap in his rivals before one of the most luckless G1 runs you’ll ever see in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes – he should’ve won by at least three lengths. He hits this race at the peak of his powers third-up, with a tick-over trial between runs. The two big knocks are the inside draw – where he’ll likely be smothered back on the rails – and his form going the Sydney way.
- Joliestar (5) – Chris Waller – James McDonald – $7.00
She takes the Chris Waller Racing slot, coming off a breathtaking win first-up in the G2 The Shorts. She’s been back to the trials and hits this race second-up with four weeks between runs. We know with her – fresh is best. She was luckless in this race last year when beaten 1.59L by Bella Nipotina before taking out the G1 Newmarket in the autumn. She draws well in gate 5 – perhaps too well. The query with Joliestar is her ability to withstand a high-pressure race to the 600m and then find another gear when it matters. She gets a lot of ticks and is a key chance.
- Lady Shenandoah (6) – Chris Waller – Damien Lane – $13.00
The third and potentially best of the Waller-trained gallopers. Lady Shenandoah came into spring off five consecutive wins, including three G1s – the Flight Stakes, Surround Stakes, and Coolmore Classic. She’s been kept to shorter trips this prep, showing her adaptability first-up when she should’ve clearly won the Concorde Stakes (four of eight Everest winners contested it prior), before a total forgive run in the G1 Manikato when starting $2.30. She has the perfect profile – third-up, strong beyond 1200m, lightly raced, and maps to absolute perfection. She should find the back of Briasa or Ka Ying Rising – from there, look for her to explode late.
- Magic Time (12) – Grahame Begg – Michael Dee – $101
A consistent mare who rarely runs a bad race. She won the G3 Cockram first-up before running third in the G1 Manikato second-up. She has the right profile but does look one to two lengths off the top level on a dry deck. A heavy track would’ve been a different story.
- Tempted (1) – Ciaron Maher – Craig Williams – $16.00
The sole 3yo in this year’s Everest. The record of the 3yos is elite overall, with the boys carrying 53kg and the girls 51kg. The only other two fillies to run in this race were Lady Of Camelot (4th in 2024) and Tulip (5th in 2018) – I’d suggest Tempted is at least a length better than those two. She was dynamic first-up in the Run To The Rose before a game effort in the high-rating Golden Rose, where they broke the track record. She now hits this race third-up from an inside draw. The query is whether she gets the splits at the right time – no horse has won from off speed and off rails, can she be the first?
Top 4 Picks
(10) Lady Shenandoah
(12) Tempted
(1) Ka Ying Rising
(2) Briasa
