What a week. What more can I say than this was the best Cup Carnival I can remember. Look, I may not be the person to say that; I won’t have seen as many as others, but I’ve been going for as long as I can remember.
This year just felt different. The VRC got it so right and were rewarded with 300,000 people voting with their attendance. Racing is well and truly in a good place. The biggest aggregate crowd across the four days in nine years. So, so good.
Melbourne Cup
The Melbourne Cup is the centrepiece of Australian racing, and this year’s was worthy of that title. Point Of Law decimated what was a good field and became one of the race’s best winners in modern history. His Melbourne Cup triumph returned a figure of 105.2, just shy of the figure Cosmic Crusader returned to win the Cox Plate. Had the pace asked more of him, there’s no doubt in my mind that he’d have outstripped Cosmic Crusader, too.
The pace was slow. Well, sort of. Royal Supremacy was afforded the single greatest chance to win a Melbourne Cup ever. They handed it to him; unfortunately for him, Ben Allen and his connections, he didn’t stay two miles and mightn’t have been in his best form. He raced just shy of a length slower than par to the 1200 metres. He was 20 lengths, or 4.6 seconds, in front of Point Of Law at that stage. It truly was unheard of, the lead that he was able to acquire for such little effort.
The pace was fast early; there was a rush down the straight for the first time, but once positions were settled, the pace evaporated, and Royal Supremacy created his enormous lead through the slowest part of the race. Through the 2200 to 1600 metres, he was operating at ~13.5 seconds per furlong, while the peloton was hardly breaking 14 seconds.
I’d coin it similar to Pride Of Jenni’s Queen Elizabeth, but she was breaking the sound barrier; he wasn’t even inside par.
Between the five- and the four-furlong point, the jockeys behind began to panic, realising that they’d allowed the runaway leader an unimaginably easy lead, and shaved a second and a half, or seven lengths, off the previous furlong. It became a five-furlong sprint, essentially.
From the five-furlong point onwards, Point Of Law sustained scintillating speed, with anaerobic and aerobic capacity, racing upwards of 26 lengths inside par to the finish.
It’s hard not to think that had the pace been faster, he’d have won by further, and a rating of 105.2 does not quite do this win justice. I’m well out of the loop in such things, but he’d be an excellent shout in December’s Hong Kong Vase, following in Dunaden’s footsteps in 2011.
Unfortunately, the Australian calendar does not lend itself to a horse such as him, and there’s as much chance of me running in the Sydney Cup as him, so races like the Tancred will best suit him. Over ten furlongs, in races like the Queen Elizabeth and the Cox Plate, there’s no doubt that he’ll be deserving of his place, and he’d be toward the top end of the market, but he’d be far more dependent on pace than what he would be in races over a mile and a half upwards. He’d have won, or at the very least gone close in this year’s Cox Plate, by reason of the frantic pace.
Without suggesting they’ll be used as pacemakers, Light Infantry Man and Land Legend will serve him well in races over 2000 metres in the Autumn and Spring.
He is as exciting as stayers come in this part of the world, and he should be used prevalently to improve the breed in Australia upon retirement, because he has a pedigree to match his talent.
From the race, if there were one to follow from it away from the winner, it would be James J Braddock, who was the only other runner to break 12 seconds over the last 200 metres. The Sydney Cup is a suitable option for him.
Derby Day
Victoria Derby
The Derby, as it always is, was great. And this year, the winner was a good one. Stormy Marco anointed himself the best staying colt of his generation with a two-length win.
The pace was honest. Skua attained the lead after a wide early run and raced upwards of seven lengths faster than par to the six-furlong point. The pace only improved thereafter; Skua incrementally increased the speed further by three lengths between the 1200 and 800 metres.
Those worse than midfield, Stormy Marco, True Rebel, Vallice and True Tone, exploded during that section, and Stormy Marco coped best.
Between the 1200 and 800 metres, Stormy Marco was 6.6 lengths faster than par, and twice as fast as the lead speed. He sustained great speed between the 1200 and 400 metres, above par through each furlong, before he began to tire, but importantly, less so than the others. He drew away to win well.
He returned a figure of 97, which is nothing to write home about, and it’s by no means a vintage year, per se, but you must remember these colts and geldings are hardly three years old and remain unfurnished.
Stormy Marco has set a decent bar in next year’s ATC Derby, and there’s no reason to suggest he won’t have improved by that point, too.
By no means am I suggesting he’ll be prevalent in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups next season, but these horses must have a pathway to those races, and this was a fantastic starting point for him.
This was a fantastic visual, just as much as it was a good betting race.
Viva la Derby.
Coolmore Stakes
The Coolmore Stakes was won by The Next Episode with a figure of 103.5.
Without being a particularly strong year for sprinting colts, he’s a good one. He’s not quite in the same realm as Tentyris, Switzerland or Home Affairs, who have won with better figures in recent years, but he and the second and third placegetters are the sprinters we need to strengthen the ranks next year. Of course, we have Tempted, but aside from her, the ranks are a little depleted, as they have been since Nature Strip retired.
The pace served him well; it was even, he wasn’t asked to overextend, he relaxed and unravelled a scintillating 400 to 200-metre split. The race was very much over once Mark Zahra pulled out to the right of Alibaba at the two-furlong pole. He didn’t tear away and win like I thought he might from that point onwards, but sustained his sprint well to stave off St Gotthard and Mbube.
Mbube was the quickest over the final two furlongs, closing seven lengths quicker than par. He was a little undersold in betting, I thought. He was the quickest between the 400 and 200 in the Danehill, and might be again undersold in races in the Autumn. He mightn’t be perceived as one of the premier sprinters in the country; he’s not a trendy colt like St Gotthard and The Next Episode, but he might be capable of beating them next year. I fancy him quite a lot. I think if he was ridden with a little more vigour early in the race, there’s a chance he’d have knocked off the quinella. The Newmarket is unequivocally his race in the Autumn.
St Gotthard is a very nice colt; he’s now rated 103.2, but he doesn’t quite have the same sectional zip. If he’s priced off this figure in future, I might take a negative view of him. Certainly, if he resumes in the Lightning Stakes.
I must mention Under Focus, too, who was the quickest between the 400 and 200 metres but tired over the last furlong. His stride indicates that he is a seven-furlong horse, and for him to compete and race so well among the premier six-furlong colts is a tremendous credit to him. He was gallant in the Golden Rose, torching himself on speed in a brutally quick race, and ran well to finish third. He’ll be well served in the plethora of Group 1 seven-furlong handicaps at Caulfield next year. I’ll give the game away if he doesn’t win one of them.
Empire Rose Stakes
Lady Shenandoah made a return to her form as a three-year-old filly in the Empire Rose.
She has been campaigned as a sprinter and has been left outsprinted by actual sprinters since. She’s been run in appropriate races this spring, and she’s added another two Group 1s to her record.
The pace was fast, quicker than par through each section, and thus, she ran a great time. She returned a figure of 104, which places her as one of the best milers in the country.
Concord Connie did everything she hinted toward in her six-length demolition job of a fillies BM70 race. She was exceptionally well prepared by her stable, but she unfortunately ran into one in the zone.
The Vanity
The Vanity has had a good two years. Sheza Alibi won it last year and is the second-best horse in the country, and Regal Ambition is a Group 1 winner in waiting.
The market wanted none of her, gambling on the idea that she’d be toward the rear in what would eventuate as a slow race. They were right. To the 600 metres, the lead speed was eight lengths slower than par. They crawled. But, to the dismay of punters who bet the drift, Regal Ambition unravelled the most spectacular sprint to reel in the leaders and win decisively.
She raced to a figure of 97.4, with an enormous plus. At a guess, I would suggest that she’ll run 102 at the very least next preparation, and win the Australian Guineas.
Carbine Club Stakes
The Roaring Sun continued Chris Waller’s domination of the Carbine Club, winning a terrible edition.
It’s certainly a case of ‘winner only’. The pace was slow, and he was able to win with a sprint, which is impressive, because he strides as if a mile and a half is his optimal distance, and his pedigree would hint at as much, too. The Queensland Derby next year is his for the taking.
Batman Stakes
Billycart was Taige Weir’s first Listed success, and based on her numbers so early in her career, this certainly won’t be her last.
Her numbers at a glance are by no means extraordinary, but upon inspecting who’s riding her winners, further credit must be given. All seventeen of her winners are shared between Will Gordon, her partner, and Dean Yendall. I’m reading between the lines a little, but it seems as though when one is set up to win, one of the two are riding.
Dean Yendall has ridden for Weir seven times for five winners and two seconds. The pair are hitting some targets thus far, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence.
The pace was pedestrian until the 600 metres, when it quickened markedly. Billycart was held up for a portion before obtaining racing room and tearing past the leader, Mister Whiskers, who looked as if he had the race sewn up. She only got stronger as the race went on.
A comprehensive winner of the Batman Stakes, and perhaps a future Oaks winner. With a figure of 92.7 at only her second race start, and her stride and sectional strength over the last furlong, the Australasian Oaks will be the race for her in the Autumn. Taige’s father won the Australasian Oaks twice; she can win her first with this filly.
Oaks Day
No doubt the highlight of Oaks Day, and perhaps the carnival, was in the mounting yard after Chiringita won the 1700-metre BM70. If you’ve not seen it, one of the ‘bigger owners’ of the winner, who wears the MyRacehorse colours, needed it known that she was in fact not a plebby micro-share owner, but indeed one of the bigger ones. I’ve seriously watched it 150 times. The absolute best.
VRC Oaks
On the racecourse, Proxima Dea was a good winner of the Oaks, too.
Visually, it was a terrible scenario. She was wide and without cover for the entire race after the other jockeys, rightly, did not let Zac Lloyd and his mount in from the wide draw. But, for what she lost in racing wide, she gained in the ride she was given. At the 2000-metre point, upon turning into the back straight, he had settled the filly ninth.
Then, the pace slackened, and through the 1800 and 1400 metres, which was the slowest portion in the race, he improved Proxima Dea to be third, sitting on pace in what had been a very slow race. They had raced seven lengths slower than par to the 1200 metres, so she’d expended very little energy, even though she was wide. She went on to be a dominant winner of the race, and that pivotal decision may have won Lloyd and Proxima Dea the Oaks.
She returned a figure of 96.1 and was a brave winner of the Oaks. She rated 98.5 in the Spring Champion, so talks of her being a Melbourne and Caulfield Cup challenger next year are a little premature, but this was not a perfect scenario by any means, so perhaps she might have been better had the race eventuated in her favour.
It’s no coincidence that he improved her position at that point in the race. That is why good riders are exponentially more important than barriers, especially in staying races.
Champions Day
Champions Sprint
Perhaps Stakes Day was the highest-quality day of racing, with three weight-for-age Group 1 races for sprinters, milers and middle-distance runners.
The sprinters were first, and the Everest form was turned over. First, second and third did not have a start in Sydney’s premier sprint race, and were sent away at $21, $149.50 and $80 on the exchange. Tempted and Joliestar, who were first and third in the Everest, finished fifth and sixth.
The Flemington straight cops some unfair criticism. No horse has ever been beaten on its merits in a sprint race at Flemington; it’s always the straight’s fault. At least according to some punters.
Sometimes, I think punters need to take a step back and really think about the notions they believe. You reckon running in a straight line for 1200 metres, as opposed to 400 metres, is the reason the horse you backed was beaten? It’s like punters saying that Aeliana is an Autumn horse. I mean, seriously? She was as good as she’s ever been over less than 2400 metres in the Cox Plate. Horses can have bad days, and there doesn’t need to always be a singular excuse for a bad performance.
My favourite straight theory is: “You need a 1400-metre horse to win over 1200 metres at Flemington.” No, you need a 1200-metre horse.
It’s okay to be beaten.
I concede there is something in straight racing; it’s a variable, especially for fast horses who like to skip away on a bend. But nothing is ever down to a singular variable, and Tempted was not beaten because this was her first attempt at racing in a straight line. There’s been discussion that the two favourites were in inferior ground, and that’s far more likely to have hindered their performance.
Tempted did have an exercise-induced pulmonary haemorrhage, which certainly explains her performance more than anything.
Point Barrow raced to a figure of 101.6, which is a career best for her, but one that was easy to forecast. It was not easy to forecast Joliestar and Tempted performing below that level, however.
The pace was slower than par; Mazu led the field two lengths behind what is typical to the 600 metres, and the race was won with an exceptional 400-metre split.
Point Barrow continues to improve as she figures racing out. She’s been a work in progress, but she was professional on Saturday and the best sprinter on the day. There might be some improvement left in her; not much, but perhaps she can reach a figure of 102–102.5 in the Autumn of next year. I don’t think she’s a top-line sprinter, but the sprinting ranks are as weak as they have ever been at present, aside from Tempted, who had a bad day on Saturday.
Champions Mile
Autumn Glow did what was expected of her. She’s Australia’s best horse, and it was a pleasure to watch her do her thing on the hallowed grounds of Flemington. She wasn’t at her best, but she didn’t need to be.
The first half of the race was 18 lengths slower than par. Lindermann, as he often is, was allowed a very easy lead, and Autumn Glow settled a length and a half behind him. The pace improved by ~three lengths between the 800 and 600 metres, and Autumn Glow made a 7.5-length explosion in pace between the 800 and 400 metres. She sustained her pace brilliantly through the line and won by a length and a quarter.
The nature of the pace did not allow her to win by a large margin, and she was found to be lame after the race, which can’t have helped.
Buckaroo is racing as well as he ever has as an eight-year-old, and he’ll be something to beat in the features in Perth. It won’t be smooth sailing for Cosmic Crusader in his return to the Western State.
Champions Stakes
Birdman won the Champions Stakes, or Cox Plate III, with his customary sprint. The pace was antithetical to the Cox Plate. Land Legend was ~10 lengths behind standard at the halfway point, and ~20 lengths slower than what the Cox Plate was at the same point. That suited Birdman, who had a superior sprint, and he tore past Cosmic Crusader and turned the tables on the Cox Plate winner. The two raced past Aeliana and Delius, who were below their best, and perhaps looking for a mile and a half.
Cosmic Crusader and Birdman are two apiece this campaign, and have been the two best middle-distance horses of the spring. Who’s the best? It doesn’t really matter, I suppose; both won’t meet again until the Autumn. Cosmic Crusader is very marginally higher-rated after the Cox Plate, but the market seems to have a handle on that. And if they were to race again, there should be nothing in it. So the answer to who’s the better horse? Both, I guess, and it’s reasonable to back whichever is bigger odds.
Queen Elizabeth Stakes
The biggest roar of Cup week was in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. James McDonald, Chris Waller and Pinhole delivered to the roar of a sea of green hats.
Last year, it was Giga Kick, where it seemed every intoxicated eighteen-year-old was on the former sprinting champ, lifting the proverbial roof off Flemington in the pouring rain. That was certainly my favourite moment of Cup Week last year, and this year Pinhole’s win was up there alongside Chiringita’s big owner.
There’s not a better sight across Cup week than drunk newly-of-age punters wearing TAB caps lifting one over the line. It’s beautiful.
It wasn’t a bad week for horses that had previously finished midfield in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot this week. Pinhole was memorably well gambled and eighth last year, and Point Of Law was similarly well supported, if my memory serves, and fourth this year. They’ve had a week.
The pace was strong, which was to be expected. Defiantly tore along through the race at a good speed, five lengths faster than par to the five-furlong point. He began to give way despite Dylan Browne McMonagle’s best efforts, and Pinhole loomed ominously at the top of the straight. James McDonald was at his best, settling him third and closer than ever before, and Pinhole was as strong as anything over the last three furlongs, racing to a new peak of 97.7. He’ll be toward the top of the market in next year’s Sydney Cup.
Matriarch Stakes
The Matriarch, which is a favourite of mine across the great week, quickly became one of my least favourites, as Too Darn Discreet came oh so close.
The pace was searching. Pillow Fight led the race just shy of ten lengths quicker than par to the 800-metre point. It was very much a deteriorating one. They increased the pace until they couldn’t anymore, and Sun Gift was ahead by just enough to stave off Too Darn Discreet, who was something beaten.
Sun Gift was well beaten in the Kyneton Cup just three days prior. She failed to race through testing conditions, beaten almost eight lengths by Virtuous Circle, and improved out of sight on a fast track, making the most of her fitness.
Racing is as hard as it is good; that is why we love it dearly. This week proved it, more so than ever. The best Cup week I can remember.
The best week of the year. The only problem is that there are 51 long weeks until the next one.
