Turf talk:
- Rail is out 4m having been True the last couple of meetings.
- Light winds shouldn’t impact racing.
- Expecting a reasonably firm deck; all horses to get their chance.
Key stats:
- Trainer Clint McDonald is going at 23% from his last 100 starters at a PoT of 15.5%.
- Team Hawkes are another stable in form, operating at 22% from their past 100 runners with a PoT of 22.9%.
- Jordan Childs is clearly the form jockey at the meeting, riding at 25% from his past 100 rides with a massive PoT of 37%.
- Despite his heroics aboard Pride Of Jenni, Declan Bates has been below his usual standards of late, with just seven winners from his past 100 rides and a PoT of -48.2%.
- Jye McNeil is another who has found things tough in recent weeks, striking at just 8% from his past 100 rides.
Race 1
2YOs getting to the 1400m for the first time. Open race.
(12) Bella Blaze looks like she will relish the trip and from gate four she can settle handier than she did on debut at Ballarat. Showed plenty of talent at the trials.
The toppy (1) Resonant trialled like a horse that would want ground, so his debut second over an unsuitable 1100m at Bendigo was full of merit. Sticky little gate, but with an even run in the race will be in the finish.
(5) Centenary Florin can press forward and give them something to catch. Doubt the 1400m pulls her up, but the quickish back-up from Warrnambool might prove testing.
(9) Autumn Charm comes through the same race as Bella Blaze and beat her home on that occasion. Looking for the trip.
(2) Meness has trialled nicely.
Selections:
(12) Bella Blaze
(1) Resonant
(5) Centenary Florin
(2) Meness
Suggested bet: 1×3 Bella Blaze
Race 2
Speed looks even. (11) Catch The Moon and (15) Shotaro the most likely leaders.
(16) Soldier Boi has a chance at huge odds. He’s going to get the best run you’ve seen, right on the back of the speed. Liked his first-up run at Geelong, where he defeated a subsequent winner and showed that 2000m would be right up his alley. He’s on the quick back up from Ballarat last Sunday where he sat deep but kept grinding away to the line in a handy BM62.
(1) Different Gravy swaps winkers for blinkers and he trialled nicely in them between runs. Getting to a big track is ideal. Ready to peak third-up.
Liked the way (2) Miewa trialled between runs. Had no lick at Mornington last time out.
This might be a bit of an afterthought for (3) Classic Gem, which is the risk. But she was strong late in the Oaks and has been mixing it with much better horses. OK in a jump-out between runs.
Selections:
(16) Soldier Boi
(1) Different Gravy
(2) Miewa
(3) Classic Gem
Suggested bet: Something 1×3 Soldier Boi, backing Different Gravy WIN. Quinella 1,2,16.
Race 3
Think this is a race in two between (2) Lovelycut and (4) Madiyya.
(2) Lovelycut has been excellent in both runs back this campaign and she was able to win over 1400m third-up last preparation. Maps for a lovely, blending run behind a hot tempo. Clearly the horse to beat.
(4) Madiyya was good fresh in the same race Lovelycut comes through. She is open to more improvement having been first-up and now she draws for a lovely run.
(3) Xarpo bounced back last start after a poor run two back. She will press forward and make her own luck up on speed, but there does look a good deal of pressure.
Selections:
(2) Lovelycut
(4) Madiyya
(3) Xarpo
(9) Jazz Affair
Suggested bet: Happy to watch.
Race 4
(7) Concord Connie goes around very short. She beat a stack of subsequent winners first-up at Pakenham before putting a hole in her rivals this track and trip last start. She got a strong tempo to suit and it was a day for the backmarkers, but it was still mighty impressive. She tackles the boys for the first time this campaign, but that won’t worry her. Always shown huge talent at the jump-outs and now delivering on raceday.
Think (3) Humble Trader can run into a hole. He trialled like he’d need the run first-up at Pakenham but was still able to get the job done. Has had a trial between runs which will only further bring him on. He’s a horse with a big stride on him – around 8.2–8.3m when he’s really rolling – and he takes a bit of winding up, so Flemington should suit him down to the ground.
(5) Sulek was terrific late at Bendigo when back on top of the ground last start. Can settle handier from gate one.
(1) Flying Done looks like he will make his own luck up on speed. Really hit his straps at the end of last campaign and has jumped-out well.
Selections:
(7) Concord Connie
(3) Humble Trader
(5) Sulek
(1) Flying Done
Suggested bet: Good luck to the thrill seekers who take the $1.35 Concord Connie… Humble Trader looks a terrific place bet, maybe a shekel the win.
Race 5
(9) Yes Yoshi found more trouble than you can poke a stick at last start at Bendigo. He was terrific in two wins through his first campaign and is more than up to winning a race like this. Good draw down the straight, too.
(16) Marsept was beaten by subsequent Gorup 1 runner up Extragalactic first-up at Caulfield before belting her rivals in reasonable time at Geelong. Has plenty of upside but market hasn’t missed her.
(7) Purple Streak beat a handy field at Pakenham last time out and looks drawn to advantage out in sixteen.
(2) Sir Myka was brave back to the inside in a handy edition of the Tobin Bronze. Not sure gate two is ideal, but he will be in this a long way.
Selections:
(9) Yes Yoshi
(16) Marsept
(7) Purple Streak
(2) Sir Myka
Suggested bet: 1×3 EW Yes Yoshi
Race 6
Not a lot of speed on paper. (5) Lady Jones can come across from her wider gate.
Stable has been patient with (1) Zahrann who has been scratched a couple of times ahead of his Australian debut. Brings strong UK form to this and has trialled nicely. Form to date has all been on top of the ground. Little knock is may want further.
Not sure gate one is ideal for (4) Wonder Boy but he has the turn of foot to get himself out of trouble if this does turn out to be a slowly run race. Absolutely flying.
(3) Oh Too Good sat deep at Bendigo but probably wasn’t a huge disadvantage given moderate tempo. Was a return to form, however, and she maps for a soft run here.
Selections:
(1) Zahrann
(4) Wonder Boy
(3) Oh Too Good
(10) Miss Playlounge
Suggested bet: No interest after scratching of Encap.
Race 7
Good speed for a 2800m race. (1) Changingoftheguard, (3) Sir Kingsford, (4) Newlook, (11) Sir Chartwell the speed.
Set weight conditions of this race see a few poorly in….
(7) Zarir had done nothing at all in Australia prior to a good effort in the Mornington Cup last start. He didn’t have any luck at a crucial stage there and should have finished a clear third. His second in the 2024 Prix Ganay was excellent, against strong opposition. He won out to 2700m in France and will relish a fast run 2800m.
(10) Zakouma isn’t well treated at the weights but he is an emerging stayer of promise. Big leap going from 2000m to 2800m but he doesn’t yet have a ceiling, unlike many of his rivals.
(1) Changingoftheguard is very well in under the set weights scale of the race. Was beautifully rated by Collett to take out the Sydney Cup and will again look to control the race.
(9) The Western Front is in a similar boat to Zakouma – a lightly raced stayer who looks to be starting to hit his straps. He comes through a couple of slowly run races, so there’s still a query as to whether he’s looking for a genuinely run 2800m, but he’s certainly worth a crack at it. Not concerned by the wide draw in a race that looks to have good tempo; he should be able to find a spot in the running line midfield.
Never thought I’d be contemplating (2) Pounding as a live hope in a Ramsden, but here we are! He’s racing consistently well and gets his preferred firm ground.
The Kiwi (5) Crouch takes plenty of winding up in his races but he will see out the 2800m without issue.
Selections:
(7) Zarir
(10) Zakouma
(1) Changingoftheguard
(9) The Western Front
Suggested bet: Zarir E/W
Race 8
(8) Losesomewinmore looks a good E/W bet at $12+. Loves the straight track here at Flemington and happy to totally forgive his fresh run when getting back from a wide draw. Drawn ideally out wide on the track.
Wasn’t a lot between (12) Stoli Bolli and (7) De Bergerac when they clashed this track and trip back in October (De Bergerac swept late to win that day). Stoli Bolli has 2.5kg on his rival from that clash but De Bergerac is absolutely airborne at the moment. Little between the pair, as the market would suggest.
The toppy (1) Title Fighter has come back in super order off a long spell. Should’ve run second in the Hareeba Stakes at Mornington (Desert Lightning has since won a Group 1) and then stuck on well on sloppy ground in the Wangoom at Warrnambool. Better suited back onto a drier deck and his only run at the track and trip was a win in this race last year.
(3) Pop Award has trialled nicely between runs and she was good in that abovementioned Hareeba.
Selections:
(8) Losesomewinmore
(7) De Bergerac
(12) Stoli Bolli
(1) Title Fighter
Suggested bet: Something E/W Losesomewinmore. Quinella 7,8,12.
Race 9
Tricky race to finish.
(2) Villasaurus is a versatile galloper in that he can sprint well fresh and then get out to 1800-2000m as a campaign unfolds. Best last 200m split of the meeting when second in the Wagga Cup last start. Has conceded them a big start when drawing out his last couple; think he can be handier here. Over the odds.
(7) Skippers Canyon and (11) Mr Blunt both come through the same race last time out, the latter winning comfortably. That said, Skippers Canyon wasn’t able to build momentum at a key stage in the race and does get a nice weight swing in his favour – don’t think there will be much between them on Saturday.
Selections:
(2) Villasaurus
(7) Skippers Canyon
(11) Mr Blunt
(10) Wealdstone
Suggested bet: No bet
