Summary of Best Bets:
Race 5 (1) Abender e/w
Race 8 (12) Let’sfacethemusic
Turf Talk:
- Rail 4.5m
- Track should be very fair and if you get your maps right, it can be profitable. Unfortunately a lot of the ones I was keen on have not been handed decent gates.
- Always love this track, especially when it’s dry.
- Gates a big advantage from the 1110m and 1200m starts.
Stats that matter:
- Jace McMurray has 9 winners from last 50 rides and ROI +49.4%
- Kelly Scweida is striking at 20% from his last 50 runners and has a good team engaged. ROI -11.4% though in that time.
Race 1:
Not a great race to kick us off here. Not too many nice things to say about them.
The toppy (1) Luton Hoo was a dominant winner last start and rock hard fit now. Not too keen on the form from that race but all you can do is win and the 3kg claim is handy.
(7) Clive’s Glory has the good on speed pattern that suits this track and can get it ok up front. Last couple of runs have been career bests.
(5) Thinking Gold was runner up to Clive’s Glory fresh and has a great 2nd up record (3:2:1:0). Also gets blinkers back on and should be in the finish.
(6) Addition has the ability to win but I have never gone close to getting any of the three wins from 25 starts.
Selections:
(1).Luton Hoo
(7) Clive’s Glory
(5) Thinking Gold
(6) Addition
(10) Slipsain
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
Thought (2) Cormac T was going to be a good bet here last start but they stayed in Sydney instead, went way too hard and stopped like shot. Does mix form horribly but his best would win here.
(4) Benzino had very good support last start and won well. Has a good record on this track (4:2:1:0). Thompson stays on and should run well again.
(7) Artful Girl jumped out of the ground chasing Benzino last start but she is impossible to catch. Can win but it will be without me.
(1) Stranglehold meets Benzino 3.5kg better off and that is significant over this trip. Out to 2200m is a little query but has to be given thought in exotics for sure.
Selections:
(4) Benzino
(2) Cormac T
(7) Artful Girl
(1) Stranglehold
Suggested Bet: No
Race 3:
Interesting race. (2) Firm Agreement and (8) Barazin ran the quinella over the Grafton carnival. (2) Firm Agreement was the $1.60 fave but was run over late and beaten fair and square by (8) Barazin. They clash again with Barazin meeting the runner-up 7.5kg better at the weights. This should go only one way, but it is a staying race in Brisbane.
The old form of (1) Yet He Moves would win this. Thompson rides but the 60kg is a fair ask here.
(6) Cavalry Man was airborne at the start of the prep but seems to have los all form. Watch the market with him.
Selections:
(8) Barazin
(2) Firm Agreement
(1) Yet He Moves
(6) Cavalry Man
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
Big fan of (1) High Profit but may end up in a bad spot from the widest gate. Slow tempo ruined his chances last start and the effort was excellent. Claim helps and can still win.
(2) Slippin Away has good speed and will lead for a long way. Can be a little soft late but expect a good run.
(4) Boonie Boom has drawn well, in Gollan camp and won on debut. Thompson rides, fitter and expect the market to love her.
Not many others chances in my mind, skinny race.
Selections:
(1).High Profit
(4) Boonie Boom
(2) Slippin’ Away
(6) Cascading
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (1) High Profit
Race 5:
Gollan doesn’t miss a beat tactics wise and his horses with both be suited if he sends (3) Braveheart across to lead. He has been a model of consistency without winning all the time since joining the stable. His other runner (1) Abender has ability but may just need the run. Looked fresh in a recent trial but won it well. He will sit off them but closer than most expect here. 3kg claim and good gate worth plenty.
(4) Formal can be a little soft late but should be able to map well and get every possible chance. Will look the winner at the 150m, just a matter of carrying the 60kg the last 50m. Well placed by a stable who know which ones to bring north.
(11) Stormland is a get back type and will need tempo and luck. Good enough to run into the money somewhere.
Selections:
(1) Abender
(4) Formal
(11) Stormland
(3) Braveheart
Suggested Bet: e/w (1) Abender if that price available.
Race 6:
Well (1) Grinzinger Champ, (10) Spirit Of Barty and (8) Lovecats ran the trifecta last time out and all had merit. (1) Grinzinger Champ gets a much better run this time from a good gate and Thompson stays on top. (8) Lovecats had to go back to last from the gate and is another who maps way better this time. (10) Spirit Of Barty meets the other two 5kg better off at the weights which is significant. I honestly am not sure how to split them.
Don’t like the gate for (6) Exuberance but can strip fitter from the fresh run at the coast. Watch the market for any money with (3) Lights Of Paradise. (13) Berezka draws well but doesn’t like winning.
Selections:
(1).Grinzinger Champ
(10) Spirit Of Barty
(8) Lovecats
(13) Berezka
Suggested Bet: Quinella 1,8,10
Race 7:
Small field but they should all get their chance.
Fair to say (1) Daggers has just continued to get better and better with Gollan. Hasn’t had a lot of luck with gates but still getting the job done. I had a query at the mile but he won well last start. Big weight again but maps well and the one they have to beat.
(2) North Pole is a nice horse who was solid last start and set to peak 4th up. May find the box seat here and gets 2kg off to help. Has placed in 4 of 5 at Doomben and handles all track conditions.
Feel (3) Cunnamulla Fella, (6) Perfect Play and (10) Just Flying could run well but I find them hard to catch/trust.
Selections:
(1).Daggers
(2) North Pole
(3) Cunnamulla Fella
(10) Just Flying
Suggested Bet: No
Race 8:
Barriers very important from this starting point.
(4) Taltarni Fields is a bomb at Doomben (9:4:2:2). Dominant winner last start over 1200m here and draws to get the right run yet again. Good apprentice and well placed.
(5) Cosmic Fire was 200 days off the scene before the Ramornie run. Good without being great there and can strip fitter. Should try to make use of the good gate and sit closer this time.
I don’t think they have any option on (12) Let’sfacethemusic bar going handlebars down and trying to cross them. He is a fast horse and when he finds the front he is very hard to run down. Drops 6.5kg off a 3.3L win last time out.
(2) Epic Proportions, (10) Pre Eminence and (13) Zoubaby could all win without surprising me.
Selections:
(12) Let’sfacethemusic
(4) Taltarni Fields
(5) Cosmic Fire
(13) Zoubaby
Suggested Bets: Small win bet (12) Let’sfacethemusic
Race 9:
A lot of these are not in great form or past their best.
(2) Manolo Bling is the horse in the best form but she is a mare giving weight to the boys and the 1350m has to be a query for her. Thought she was well placed in the Ramornie and was a pass mark without being great. Won’t get a better chance to win at this trip.
(3) Ouroboros is as consistent as any of these. Has placed in all four runs at Doomben and will be right on speed and give a kick.
(9) Too Many Thoughts has won or placed in 8 of 10 and was solid fresh. Was 2nd best L200m in that race and has placed at both 2nd up runs to date. Fitter and light weight is a help.
Selections:
(9) Too Many Thoughts
(2) Manolo Bling
(3) Ouroboros
(1) Boom Torque
Suggested Bets: Small e/w (9) Too Many Thoughts
