Turf Talk:
- Rail +7m 1000m-W/Post; +6m Remainder
- I don’t like rail out as a rule. However, with a drying track, end of carnival and rail out I think we might be able to target a few on speed runners in the right races
Stats that matter:
- Nash Rawiller has a very good book of rides here today. He is in form with 11 wins from his last 50 rides and ROI +9.4%
- Tim Clark has 13 winners from his last 50 rides ad ROI +46.7%. In great form.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Gee this is hard to work out.
(11) Propaganda is out of a good Qld mare and was a 6.2L winner to kick off his 2nd prep. It was the only 1110m race at Toowoomba that night, so hard to line up. He does look a handy one in the making but probably bottom odds at $2.80.
(10) Grinzinger Champ is an interesting runner. Was good on speed in Adelaide but they have ridden colder in trials since arriving in Qld. Has been good in those trials, just wish she drew a better gate.
(8) Metal Man was good at the start of last prep and had excuses at the end of the prep with heat stress etc. Nice return in an avg race at the Gold Coast but best L400m and 200m there. Up to 1200 suits now.
(2) Sword Of Legacy was excellent two back and then wide the trip at first go 1200m. Off that run you can’t have him, but he’s got Nash and a better gate this time around.
Liked the win of (7) Excenia last time out and may even peak this run. In the McEvoy camp and the $14 does look a little value.
(4) Fasvara has won 3 of 6 and still has upside.
Selections:
(11) Propagada
(7) Excenia
(8) Metal Man
(2) Sword Of Legacy
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
Well (5) Town Crier and (11) Now Is The Hour are very good on speed horses but the question is how hard do they have to work to find the front? If they get across easily (which I don’t expect, their prices are good).
(13) Istolea Merc was impressive fresh and the tempo here should be a help. Bjorn knows what horses to bring and this looks to get every possible chance.
(17) Scheherazade is the horse on the way up. Has won 4 of 8 and beat Ouroboros last start who would be a leading chance, if not fave here. Maps well and deserves to be right in the market with the light weight.
(2) Space Tracker Is a good fresh horse and has trialled well. Just has the big weight.
Selections:
(17) Scheherazade
(13) Istolea Merc
(5) Town Crier
(11) Now Is The Hour
(2) Space Tracker
Suggested Bet: No
Race 3:
Absolutely nothing would surprise me here.
(2) Cool Gent was actually unbelievable winning the Listed race last start. Was tailed off and seemingly no chance before blousing them late. May be a wet tracker?
(1) Marriano is well bred and was good behind Cool Gent last start. Gets the blinkers on here and can be in he finish again.
(6) Tannin is another well bred colt and just won on debut with class. Looks to have improvement off that win and still learning what it’s all about. It was a confidence building win an can get a nice run from the good gate.
(3) The Machine Gun and (7) Klocke had nothing between them on debut and should be the same again here. Both have nice futures.
(5) Hard To Exceed was travelling fresh and jus lost it’s action at the 200m and poor recovery. Could improve sharply.
Another half dozen could win and not surprise.
Selections:
(6) Tannin
(7) Klocke
(1) Marffiano
(3) The Machine Gun
Suggested Bet: Maybe small play (6) Tannin for an interest.
Race 4:
I love there is this race on the calender for the Bushies. I just have zero interest in a bet. So many different formlines on different tracks and it’s just a lottery.
(3) Sunnycoast has been a good horse for a long time and won 11 from 27. Probably past his very best but could win without surprising.
I have liked (8) Odegaard ever since he come north. Comes here off two wins and is a tactically versatile horse. Well placed against these.
(9) Este Dia has a good strike rate and an easy winner last start at Emerald. Can get a sweet run from the good gate and be the one to run down.
(11) Red Hot Lizzie beat home Sunnycoast two back and won again last start. Wide gate a concern.
Selections:
(8) Odegaard
(9) Este Dia
(3) Sunnycoast
(11) Red Hot Lizzie
Suggested Bet: Box trifecta (3,8,9,11)
Race 5:
Only two of the nine runners have finished top 3 last start. Horrible type of race.
Little surprised (1) Pinito has opened fave. Was very good two starts ago but a bit plain last start even though wide for most of it. Do like the booking of Nash.
(3) Hyperbolic has been excellent in Qld. Have loved her work and been strong through the line. Query at the trip but my gut says she will run it out.
(4) Sun Worshipper is underrated and is a genuine stayer. She was good late in the Ipswich cup and comes here on the quick back up which she has done well in the past.
(6) Geemes and (5) Extraordinaire were ok in Syd last start and can strip fitter for this.
Not a race I want to play into.
Selections:
(3) Hyperbolic
(4) Sun Worshipper
(1) Pinito
(5) Extraordinaire
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
(2) Future History is one of the easier ones to trust. Won or placed in 20 of 42 starts and this prep has been great. Two solid runs up here and this looks a target race for him. Well placed with Nash on top.
(5) Pounding is another that is consistent. He’s been good all prep on different ground and over different trips. Even though he has been up for a while he looks hard to beat in a plain sort of race.
Real dour effort from (6) Black Run last start in a decent race. Rock hard fit now and can be suited with a slow tempo here.
Selections:
(2) Future History
(5) Pounding
(6) Black Run
(1) Asterix
Suggested Bet: Quinella 2,5
Race 7:
Well (1) War Eternal is flying and in career best form. Three straight wins but meets nearly anything he’s raced recently worse at the weights. Looked gone for all money last start but found under pressure to win again. Hard to say he can’t win even though a bit against this time.
(2) Sun God gets a 2kg turn around at the weights and is three weeks between runs. Love the booking of Nash and love the good gate. Gets every chance to turn the tab les on the topweight. In Nash we trust!
(11) Warby is impossible to catch but was beaten 2.1L by War Eternal last start and meets that horse 7.5kg better off. That alone says he has to be a chance.
(8) Hollywood Hero burst through late fresh in a nice effort. In Baker stable and he goes better 2nd up. Looks to be a bit of a target from a smart stable.
Selections:
(2) Sun God
(1) War Eternal
(8) Hollywood Hero
(11) Warby
Suggested Bet: (2) Sun God
Race 8:
Always highly competitive this G1.
I don’t feel there is great speed and I do think those in the first half can be favoured. Do they sit closer on (1) Splash Back or do they ride back like usual? She has won 8 of 22 and understand why she is fave. Will still need things to go right and for splits to come at the right time.
(3) Manaal might be the winner from the draw. I actually think she can lead and be suited here. Unlucky runner last start nd should nearly have one. Lacks a turn of foot but she just keeps building through the line in her races.
(6) Gerringong has always shown good ability and the fresh run was brilliant. The wide gate is the only concern for me. If she gets in somehow from the draw, she can win for sure.
(4) Tulleries does have a turn of foot but she can mix her form a little. Gets a great run in transit, a good surface and should be no excuses to not bring her best.
(12) Savergery Vibe, (9) Melody Again and (17) Within The Law might be next best but I’m sure a few take the ‘field’ in their quaddie.
Selections:
(6) Gerringong
(3) Manaal
(1) Splash Back
(4) Tulleries
Suggested Bets: Small e/w (6) Gerringong
Race 9:
This is a hard way to finish. Can’t really find any on the way up. We know what they all bring and there is not much between them.
(5) Brudenell may be better at 1100m but I love the last couple of efforts and peaks here 4th run back. Gets a nice run in transit from the gate and can look the winner here.
Thought (6) Oak Hill was just a pass mark two back but the last start was very good and best L400m of the race. Could be the one peaking at the right time.
I’m not a (4) Payline man but Nash stays on and gate 1 could be a help. While between wins is not ideal.
You couldn’t have (1) King Of Sparta off the last effort but had a poor recovery that day. Worth forgiving as the fresh run was solid. Big weight and wide gate issues.
(16) About To Explode is versatile and been solid all prep. Just 54kg for Dolan and can be one of the strongest late.
Selections:
(6) Oak Hill
(5) Brudenell
(16) About To Explode
(1) King Of Sparta
Suggested Bets: No
