Summary of Best Bets
Next Best – Race 8 (9) Manukau
Turf Talk
- Rail out 4m
- Just annoying showers around so have to watch the skies closely
- Rail 4m is a good spot here
Stats that matter
- Ben Osmond has ridden 11 winners from his last 50 rides with a ROI of +33%
- Todd Pollard has made a strong start to his new stable with six winners from 17 runners and a ROI of +43%
Race 1
Only reason I liked the race was Queen Jeddah and she has been scratched.
(9) Tassorati has the good on-speed pattern but is not the strongest horse late in races. Trials were just OK but like the fact she will be right up on speed.
(5) Uniquely Famous is limited but should be better for the first prep and could improve this time in work.
(8) Sheza’s Destiny is no star but after the fave has come out looks a leading chance in a weak race.
Selections:
9 Tassorati
8 Sheza’s Destiny
5 Uniquely Famous
1 Boomtown Laddie
Suggested Bet: No
Race 2
Two races and two on top selections scratched, far from ideal.
Would love to see (7) Aristocratic Girl win one but she just looks like one that may continue running placings. Has been in the money in five of her last six and no reason she cannot land there again.
(2) Atlantic Coast was average last prep but returns a gelding and the trials suggest he may be a better horse this time around.
(14) Opetaia warmed up through the line late fresh and can strip fitter. Draws the inside gate for Thompson and looks one that can go on and win a few races. Well placed if they get the splits at the right time.
Selections:
14 Opetaia
7 Aristocratic Girl
2 Atlantic Coast
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
Bit tricky this race.
Loved the two wins by (4) Fasvara but he loomed again last start and was a little flat late. Draws a good gate and if he bounces back to form it would not surprise.
Hard to leave (5) Rewrite out after being beaten in a CL1 but the effort was OK. Has been too short in the market for his ability for me this prep.
Absolutely hate the gate for (9) Galpin but loved the form from two preps ago. The recent trial suggests she might be back in good form and that would go close to winning here.
(6) Wiliamtheconqueror is good enough to win. Do not mind the race he comes through and Boris Thornton knows the horse well.
Selections:
9 Galpin
4 Fasvara
5 Rewrite
6 Wiliamtheconqueror
10 Esprit Du Jour
Suggested Bet: Small e/w (9) Galpin at a big price
Race 4
Have some massive trust issues with these.
Another on top scratching with Galway Flyer out.
At least (3) Captain Maverick has built into this prep and the last couple have featured good late splits. Up to this trip is a positive and any rain around would help. Thompson rides for Waller and there are a few things to like.
(5) Rock Ya has always been respected in the market and does have ability. Has won four of 11 which is impressive for a horse over ground. This is harder than the last win but still want to respect him.
(10) Artful Girl is impossible to follow but her best can be in the money after all the scratchings.
Selections:
3 Captain Maverick
5 Rock Ya
10 Artful Girl
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
Another race, another on top selection scratched.
(6) Savaii is not overly classy but is consistent. The big plus is getting Thompson to steer, which might add a length.
(2) Sweet Proposal may be better over further but has a good fresh record and should be respected.
(10) Saint Aldwyn is in great form but did get every possible chance last start. Has stuck to 1200m all prep and now rises to 1350m. Not completely sold on the trip but if he runs it strongly he probably beats them.
(11) More Love is a bit of a non-winner but could be worth including in exotics. Now we have some leading hopes out this gets moved up the rankings and genuine winning hope.
Selections:
10 Saint Aldwyn
11 More Love
2 Sweet Proposal
6 Savaii
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6
(2) Easy Love is a nice horse with upside. Easy winner on soft ground fresh and the chance of showers will only help. Likes this track, goes well second-up and suits the trip.
(5) Subterrain is just a winner. Might not get it done by big margins but puts his head out and has a crack. Two from two this prep, Thompson stays on and the trip only looks more suitable.
(3) Wowzino and (8) Aratiri are horses you could make a case for in an open race.
Selections:
2 Easy Love
5 Subterrain
8 Aratiri
7 Matawai
Suggested Bet: Win Bet (2) Easy Love
Race 7
(13) Isti Star has shown great ability in her eight starts. Seems to kick on the corner but can be a bit soft late in races. Was plain last start but this is easier and she draws gate one for Thompson which is a huge positive.
(14) Break Free usually gets back and is strong late through the line. Rattled home last start to just miss. If they can hold a midfield spot from the draw she can be a major player late.
(18) Synergy In Motion is a fast horse who can use the good gate to lead or sit right on speed. Nice winner of a trial before this and will be very hard to run down with 51.5kg.
(1) Town Crier is a nice, consistent horse. Apprentice, wide gate and fresh are little queries though.
Selections:
18 Synergy In Motion
13 Isti Star
14 Break Free
1 Town Crier
Suggested Bet: Win (18) Synergy In Motion, save (13) Isti Star
Race 8
(9) Manukau is a well-bred Godolphin horse who gets blinkers first time. Beaten fairly last start but it was still a good effort at Eagle Farm. Ran the second-best last 400m and 200m splits of the race and will be strong late again here.
(3) Click Click Boom was a nice winner over 1200m here. They should push forward to find a spot but there is a slight query how hard that might be from this barrier.
(4) Climactic looked a very good horse but was poor last start. Blinkers come off and could produce a sharp bounce back from a good gate.
Selections:
9 Manukau
4 Climactic
3 Click Click Boom
Suggested Bet: Win (9) Manukau
