Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet – Race 1 (7) Queen Jeddah
Next Best – Race 8 (9) Mankau
Turf Talk
- Rail out 4m
- Just annoying showers around so have to watch the skies closely
- Rail 4m is a good spot here
Stats that matter
- Ben Osmond has ridden 11 winners from his last 50 rides with a ROI of +33%
- Todd Pollard has made a strong start to his new stable with six winners from 17 runners and a ROI of +43%
Race 1
(7) Queen Jeddah will have good support. Still lightly raced and has not been far away all prep. Rock-hard fit now, draws okay and handles all ground. Plenty to like in a plain race.
(9) Tassorati has the good on-speed pattern but is not the strongest horse late in races. Trials were just okay but like the fact she will be right up on speed.
(5) Uniquely Famous is limited but should be better for the first prep and could improve this time in work.
Selections:
7 Queen Jeddah
9 Tassorati
8 Sheza’s Destiny
5 Uniquely Famous
Suggested Bet: Win (7) Queen Jeddah
Race 2
Would love to see (7) Aristocratic Girl win one but she just looks like one that may continue running placings. Has been in the money in five of her last six and no reason she cannot land there again.
(10) Girmay has had wraps on him. Thought he was there to win last start but was not strong enough late. He is better than maiden grade, fitter now and Maloney rides. Should get his chance again.
(4) Disperate looked to have every possible chance and was plain at $2.50 fresh. The excuse was the wet track so may have to forgive if the rain misses. Can win.
(2) Atlantic Coast was average last prep but returns a gelding and the trials suggest he may be a better horse this time around.
(14) Opetaia warmed up through the line late fresh and can strip fitter. Draws the inside gate for Thompson and looks one that can go on and win a few races. Well placed if they get the splits at the right time.
Selections:
14 Opetaia
10 Girmay
3 Disperate
7 Aristocratic Girl
2 Atlantic Coast
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
Bit tricky this race.
Loved the two wins by (4) Fasvara but he loomed again last start and was a little flat late. Draws a good gate and if he bounces back to form it would not surprise.
Hard to leave (5) Rewrite out after being beaten in a CL1 but the effort was okay. Has been too short in the market for his ability for me this prep.
Absolutely hate the gate for (9) Galpin but loved the form from two preps ago. The recent trial suggests she might be back in good form and that would go close to winning here.
(6) Williamtheconqueror is good enough to win. Do not mind the race he comes through and Boris Thornton knows the horse well.
Selections:
9 Galpin
4 Fasvara
5 Rewrite
6 Williamtheconqueror
10 Esprit Du Jour
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
Have some massive trust issues with these.
(6) Galway Flyer is one I trust. A Pierro gelding for Waller and comes here looking to make it a hat-trick of wins. Has run the best splits between the 400m and 200m of his last two and just needs a good ride from the gate.
At least (3) Captain Maverick has built into this prep and the last couple have featured good late splits. Up to this trip is a positive and any rain around would help. Thompson rides for Waller and there are a few things to like.
(5) Rock Ya has always been respected in the market and does have ability. Has won four of 11 which is impressive for a horse over ground. This is harder than the last win but still want to respect him.
Selections:
6 Galway Flyer
3 Captain Maverick
5 Rock Ya
12 Kiroro Peak
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
Have always liked (7) Heyoka and thought she was a bet fresh. Form guide says held up late but she was never winning. Has won second up and as long as it is not worse than a Soft 5, could have a bet.
(8) Capital Heart beat her fair and square last start. Has won two of three for the new stable and only has to overcome the bad gate to be a player late again.
(6) Savaii is not overly classy but is consistent. The big plus is getting Thompson to steer, which might add a length.
(2) Sweet Proposal may be better over further but has a good fresh record and should be respected.
(10) Saint Aldwyn is in great form but did get every possible chance last start. Has stuck to 1200m all prep and now rises to 1350m. Not completely sold on the trip but if he runs it strongly he probably beats them.
(11) More Love is a bit of a non-winner but could be worth including in exotics.
Selections:
7 Heyoka
10 Saint Aldwyn
8 Capital Heart
11 More Love
2 Sweet Proposal
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6
(2) Easy Love is a nice horse with upside. Easy winner on soft ground fresh and the chance of showers will only help. Likes this track, goes well second up and suits the trip.
(5) Subterrain is just a winner. Might not get it done by big margins but puts his head out and has a crack. Two from two this prep, Thompson stays on and the trip only looks more suitable.
(6) All Kinds Of Folk bolted in at first start for the new stable. No doubt she is well placed up here to win a few, but was she flattered by the heavy track?
(1) Blazing Harry, (3) Wowzino and (8) Aratiri are all horses you could make a case for in an open race.
Selections:
2 Easy Love
5 Subterrain
6 All Kinds Of Folk
8 Aratiri
Suggested Bet: Win Bet (2) Easy Love
Race 7
(13) Isti Star has shown great ability in her eight starts. Seems to kick on the corner but can be a bit soft late in races. Was plain last start but this is easier and she draws gate one for Thompson which is a huge positive.
(14) Break Free usually gets back and is strong late through the line. Rattled home last start to just miss. If they can hold a midfield spot from the draw she can be a major player late.
(18) Synergy In Motion is a fast horse who can use the good gate to lead or sit right on speed. Nice winner of a trial before this and will be very hard to run down with 51.5kg.
(1) Town Crier is a nice, consistent horse. Apprentice, wide gate and fresh are little queries though.
Selections:
18 Synergy In Motion
13 Isti Star
14 Break Free
1 Town Crier
Suggested Bet: Win (18) Synergy In Motion, save (13) Isti Star
Race 8
(9) Mankau is a well-bred Godolphin horse who gets blinkers first time. Beaten fairly last start but it was still a good effort at Eagle Farm. Ran the second-best last 400m and 200m splits of the race and will be strong late again here.
(8) Impervious has a good second-up record and this is a drop back from the Listed race fresh. Thompson goes on for Gollan so have to respect.
(3) Click Click Boom was a nice winner over 1200m here. They should push forward to find a spot but there is a slight query how hard that might be from this barrier.
(4) Climactic looked a very good horse but was poor last start. Blinkers come off and could produce a sharp bounce back from a good gate.
Selections:
9 Mankau
8 Impervious
4 Climactic
3 Click Click Boom
Suggested Bet: Win (9) Mankau
