Summary of Best Bets:
Race 2 #7 The Aviator- Last run was better than it looked and this is suitable.
Race 3 #10 Diversity- Has run well in better races and fitter from the first up effort.
Race 8 #13 Navy Ninja e/w. Just looks a decent horse down south and joined Gollan who can improve it.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 11m
- Groundhog day for the midweeks and rail out to 11m
- Been on a decent run with bet plays and hoping the run continues.
- Drying weather and should be on a Good surface.
Key Stats:
- Not many participants are flying, but jockey wise Angela Jones is going as good as any. 9 winners from last 50 and ROI -8%
- Current season has the Munce team striking at 19.4% and ROI -8%. That’s as good as anyone up here this year.
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Race by race overview
Race 1:
One of the more interesting maidens and should be a good form race going forward.
(7) Desanto is way better than maiden grade. Looked a good thing to me last start but was beaten a half head with 3.4L back to the 3rd horse. Tough beat but fitter and gets every chance again here. Although this might be harder.
(1) Gram is ex-Godolphin, now with Gollan and the trial here was excellent. Up on speed and won as he liked. Will find this easier than racing down south and should win a few races up here.
(10) Sword Of Legacy hasn’t done much race day for a while but gee the trials since joining Dunn have looked very good. Love what I have seen there and looks a genuine winning chance.
Selections:
(7) Desanto
(10) Sword Of Legacy
(1) Gram
(4) Zoustrology
Suggested Bet: Quinella 1,7,10 if prices aren’t too short.
Race 2:
I’ve been a bit of a sucker for (7) The Aviator but I am sure there is above avg ability there. They have been dictated to by gates and the last start was better than it reads. Got back to last in a slow run race and leaders dominated. Was 3rd best L200m and feel they get there chance from a good gate over this trip.
(4) Kadesky beat The Aviator home in that last start but was behind the leader and got the gun run. Didn’t show a turn of foot but one batted ok. From inside gate can do the same here.
(8) Saturday’s Girl has looked the winner many times but is still a 16 start maiden. A must for exotics but have to be a thrill seeker for a win bet.
(2) Delicious Derek and (10) Bomb Perignon are both Waller so watch the market.
Selections:
(7) The Aviator
(4) Kadesky
(8) Saturday’s Girl
(2) Delicious Derek
Suggested Bet: Something small (7) The Aviator
Race 3:
Never keen on apprentice’s races. (8) Inside Passage was a tough winner last start and can be even better with that run under the belt. Losing Thompson on top hurts.
(10) Diversity is the best horse. Is a bit of a one paced plodder but has raced well in better races and this looks very suitable up on speed.
(7) Clive’s Glory only won a weak maiden last start but peak fitness now and can give a kick on speed.
(3) Heroic Rebel better for the couple of runs back and was good late last time out. (11) Crypto Magic would be up to winning this and not surprise.
Selections:
(10) Diversity
(8) Inside Passage
(3) Heroic Rebel
(11) Crypto Magic
(7) Clive’s Glory
Suggested Bet: Just a small win bet (10) Diversity
Race 4:
What a shock. You have a 1400m maiden and 3yr old 1400m on the same day and get 6x dual acceptors. Shocked you end up with a 7 horse field? You can’t make this up!
(1), Astern Effort has run a place his last five starts without a win. Frustrating to say the least. A must for exotics but hard to be confident with a win ticket.
There are wins coming for (9) Don’t Doubt Missy but just gets back and seems to find one better. No use doing that and from gate 1 I expect them to be as positive as they can to land midfield or better. If she lands there, she can win.
Selections:
(9) Don’t Doubt Missy
(1) Astern Effort
(6) Swing State
Suggested Bet: (9) Don Doubt Missy
Race 5:
Another of the apprentice series. I don’t even know half of them so I don’t want to back apprentices I don’t know.
Harder here but liked the maiden win of (3) Rewrite. Feel he beat a nice horse there and a big gap to the 3rd horse on that occasion.
(4) Saint Aldwyn got all the favours in front last start but won easily and hard to knock. Gets a decent apprentice and will be on speed for a long way in this.
(10) Better Sweet has been going around in the Saturday 3yr old races and going well. The Angel Ladder form was franked in a big way on the weekend. That makes her very hard to beat.
(6) Berezka is one the punters have had enough of. Has been in the market many times in Qld, had her chance but only one win from 15 starts. Place chance best again.
1200m is not the best trip for (7) Dismantle but the form this prep has been good and can run well. The last 50m is the query.
(8) Happy Bellie has been racing in much better races and has had a stable change. Will find this a lot easier and just watch the market with this stable.
(9) Vanessi is also going to find this way easier than bm72’s in Sydney. Gets Lang to ride for Waller so ticks there. Wide gate not ideal.
(12) Lord Of Flames comeback a gelding and bolted in at Grafton in a weak maiden. Could keep improving now he is concentrating.
Selections:
(10) Better Sweet
(3) Rewrite
(9) Vanessi
(4) Saint Aldwyn
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
I don’t trust many of these.
(3) Moulin Miss is still lightly raced for Gollan and the trial was good leading into this. Draws a soft gate and gets her chance.
(7) Galactic Star looked awesome winning first up and then beaten a long way over 1200m next time. Back to this trip suits and a few weeks between runs suits too.
(1) Hearts Are Better and (2) Never Say Never can put a good one in but mix form an impossible to trust.
Selections:
(7) Galactic Star
(3) Moulin Miss
(1) Hearts Are Better
(6) Count Nicholas
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7:
I haven’t been with (11) Saveur lately but she has been flying. A maiden and CL1 win followed by a narrow defeat in town over a mile. Waller trains, Jones rides and expect her to be right in this again.
(8) Piston Rebel wasn’t far off that horse when resuming and then solid last start 2nd up. Peaking fitness wise and this looks a good target for one on the way up.
(10) Propose had been good in easier races and then good on the weekend in a better race than this. If they opt for the quick back up, I’d respect.
(7) Addition is not one of mine with just 2 wins from 19. Does run well a hell of a lot though and is Gollan/Thompson.
(4) Meltdown has form around a few of these and a win wouldn’t be a shock.
Selections:
(11) Saveur
(10) Propose
(7) Addition
(8) Piston Rebel
(4) Meltdown
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8:
(6) Subterrain is lightly raced with a good record (4:2:1:1). Nice winner fresh, can stripper and just has to overcome the gate early.
(10) Fasvara has only come through a couple of GC weak races but gee I have loved the style of wins. Once he picked them up last start he careered away. Harder again here but maps ok and will be strong late.
(13) Navy Ninja was competitive in Melbourne for team Hayes and I’d expect she will be more than competitive up here for Gollan. May want a mile but a good style of horse for up here and there are wins in store.
(12) Highgrove Rose may need another run but I think has ability and will run better than many may predict here.
(14) Some Style and (15) Meadowbrook not hopeless.
Selections:
(13) Navy Ninja
(10) Fasvara
(16) She Moves Too
(14) Some Style
Suggested Bets: e/w (13) Navy Ninja
