Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 8 (2) Chillies
Turf Talk
- Rail 6.5m.
- Poor old Ipswich is copping the rain, a lot of scratching’s on a heavy 10, so only a light preview.
- There has been so much rain around that the meeting has already been moved from Wednesday to Thursday.
Stats that matter
- Archibald’s have just three wins from their last 50 runners at an ROI of -39%.
- Thompson was in fine form not long ago, but has just four wins from his last 50 rides at an ROI of -77%.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(7) Private Max was really good on debut and a little further should suit. Jett takes the 2kg off and I do think he is a decent colt with more to come.
I feel like there is something there with (12) Adora Djon’s. Has won two trials this time in and was a soft track trial winner before the first prep.
(10) Vandazee has shown enough and can be a better horse this time in work. Thompson rides is always a bonus.
Loved the trial of (15) Pac Fair but as always, watch the market with the first starters.
Selections:
(7) Private Max
(12) Adora Djon’s
(15) Pac Fair
(10) Vandazee
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
Don’t trust many of these.
(10) Empire Of Art has been all around the money without winning this prep. Some of the best late splits each start and no luck at all two starts back. Wet is not an issue but only 1 win from 18 is the concern.
(8) Steel Impact was a winner two back and good again behind an in-form one. Thompson rides and looks a genuine winning hope in a plain race.
(2) Trump Card and (1) Weona Redwood are both Vandyke and they have ability. Maybe watch the market and see if one is supported more than the other as there is not much between them.
Selections:
(10) Empire Of Art
(8) Steel Impact
(1) Weona Redwood
(2) Trump Card
Suggested Bet: (10) Empire Of Art, small win bet
Race 3
Horrible preview this race but there is no way to make a case for them..
Hard to find nice things to say about the others. (3) Ablesheeba has been ok at the three runs this prep and ready to show best 4th up.
There is nothing nice to say about the rest. (15) Wedding Vow has only had the one run, was poor but can improve from the day out.
Selections:
(3) Ablesheeba
(15) Wedding Vow
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(2) Bon Vader has placed in 4 of 5 and is a little frustrating. Has good ability but has been there to win many times. Not sure where they land from the gate but is tactically versatile.
(1) Ablesheeba has been ok at the three runs this prep and ready to show best 4th up.
(7) Over The Louvre was on speed on debut but a little weak late. Run was ok and can improve from the outing.
(16) Paradise As Usual has been good in open 3yr old races in town earlier in the prep. Hasn’t been great lately, might need a spell?
Selections:
(2) Bon Vader
(16) Paradise As Usual
(7) Over The Louvre
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
There is a wrap on (3) Hell Or Heaven and the last run was very good. Has had some of the best late splits in both races and ready to win now. Blinkers on first time too.
(2) Sling has improved each run and broke maiden status on a heavy track last start. Only a small field there but can keep improving.
Like the race (4) Motivating comes through and was good late there. Might sit a little closer from a good gate and is one that the 1350m will suit. Blinkers go on also.
(5) Macedon Mission was well held last start but that was a G3 and this is a big drop in grade. If he handles the wet he might be hard to hold out late.
Selections:
(3) Hell Or Heaven
(5) Macedon Mission
(2) Sling
(4) Motivating
Suggested Bet: Small win (3) Hell Or Heaven
Race 6
Half the field scratched here unfortunately.
(5) Nepravda is ex-Hayes and only had the one run for Heathcote. Has a good 2nd up record (2:1:1:0) and has handled wet tracks. Can run a race.
(9) Smart Shazza got a run up the rails and was good through the line last start. Mixed form last prep but off that run and from gate 1 she looks a live hope.
(1) Winchmen can run well but he just isn’t one of mine. Just 2 wins from 17 starts.
Selections:
(9) Smart Shazza
(5) Nepravda
(1) Winchman
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
11 of 19 scratched and the entire preview wiped to start again.
Not sold on (10) Spirit Of Barty but is Team Gollan and Thompson rides. Fitter for the fresh run and could improve. With most the others out, just about goes on top now.
Didn’t mind what (13) Moroccan Wild did first prep but the fresh run this time was plain. If you are forgiving, she could run better than many would expect here.
(11) Jada Rose only won an 800m maiden on debut but it’s hard to win anywhere on debut. Has won a trial since and might go ok.
Selections:
(11) Jada Rose
(10) Spirit Of Barty
(13) Moroccan Wild
(3) Strike Weapon
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
Well (1) Options best would belt these. Soft late in the Guineas but was 5 wide there for a long time. Up in trip should suit but is he going any good?
(2) Chillies comes back from the 2800m of the St Leger and is a genuine stayer. Have really liked the last two efforts and they should line up very well against this lot.
I didn’t like (5) Peccavi at all last start but the effort was good. With Waller and up in trip looks suitable for her.
(12) Simply Gold won a low race at Taree but the win looked good. It was heavy ground and huge margins to most of the field. Thompson on and just 52kg.
Selections:
(2) Chillies
(12) Simply Gold
(1) Options
(9) Lonesome Soul
Suggested Bet: Win bet (2) Chillies
