Good Will Hunting: A Guineas Day feast for the punters

One of the great days on the Australian racing calendar is Caulfield Guineas Day. As a surprise to no one, it’s awesome again this year.

Not necessarily because of the three Group 1s, only one of which is particularly interesting from a wagering point of view, but because the supporting acts more than make up for it. Tremendous wagering from top to bottom.

Caulfield Guineas

Warwoven casts an enormous shadow over the Caulfield Guineas. Can he repeat his brilliance in the Golden Rose, and will he stay a mile?

Maybe is the answer to that question. If the pace is even or slow, he will sprint too well; but if it becomes a test of endurance, Blind Raise and Tron Bolt can win the race.

Of course, there are other chances, but they are slim at best. This Guineas, in particular, is overtly top-heavy. The Stutt Stakes was terrible; Diameter and Something’s Burnin’ aren’t in contention unless they improve massively.

Central Europe is the most intriguing outside of the big three. He was ridden awfully relative to the pace in the Golden Rose and gave out very quickly. Perhaps, with a more conservative ride, relative to pace, not position, he can reach new heights.

Call Me Coach is similarly interesting, but completely unexposed. All punters have to work with is two starts and some very promising sectional times. I think I’ll probably back him if he’s bigger than 40/1 on the exchange. Based on talent, he’s certainly better than a 40/1 shot in this Guineas; it’s that he lacks racecraft, which may be his undoing.

Warwoven is the very obvious favourite, and rightly so. I make him a shade of odds on. But he is suspect over a mile and is more likely than not to regress from his peak in the Golden Rose.

Blind Raise’s biggest asset is that he will settle behind the speed and pick up the pieces if the favourite doesn’t stay.

Tron Bolt has been assigned an arduous task by drawing barrier 11, but I’m adamant Craig Williams will hustle him out of the barriers to at least give him an opportunity to race forward of midfield, rather than conceding from the start. He cannot win if they instantly give away positional advantage.

Central Europe will improve from the Golden Rose and over a mile, and is ridden by James McDonald. I make him $12, so he is slightly over the odds at $15.

Call Me Coach mightn’t be fancied, but I’ll take the gamble that he’s a better chance than what the price he’ll be sent off at implies.

An underwhelming Guineas, if I’m honest, and one I’m not overly excited about.

Might And Power Stakes

The Might And Power has become accustomed to shallow fields in recent times, which is unfortunate. Six will contest the 10-furlong feature, and perhaps only two can win. Sheza Alibi, Australia’s second-best horse, is a dominant favourite over Birdman, who I would consider something like Cox Plate favourite.

Treasure The Moment and Kingswood will lead the race and presumably increase the pace incrementally from the 1000 to the 400 metres.

Thereafter, Sheza Alibi and Birdman will be too much.

If the pace is slow, which is a high probability, Birdman will be favoured. He possesses tremendous acceleration. Unfortunately for him, Sheza Alibi has a better one.

She will win if she stays 2000 metres, which she very likely will, especially if the pace is slow. There’s nothing in her stride to suggest that she won’t.

She is $1.30, so there’s no value. It will be an awesome spectacle, just not a great betting one.

Toorak Handicap

The betting race of the day, as it usually is, is the Toorak Handicap.

It mightn’t be the strongest edition this year, but it is an assembly of well-handicapped talent.

My read is that Sabaj is racing as well as he ever has, even if the form guide does not quite reflect it. From the 800-metre mark to the finish, he was third-quickest behind only the winner and Tom Kitten, who ran third in the Epsom last Saturday, suggesting he is in good health.

He was fourth in the All Star Mile and the Australian Cup, is a Cranbourne Cup winner, has the blinkers applied for the first time third-up, will be ridden by Ethan Brown, and carries just 54kg.

Bets do not come much better than this in a Group 1. I assess him as probable to return a figure similar to the one he recorded in the All Star Mile. If he runs to that level with an impost of 54kg, it is difficult to see him being beaten.

A big if, of course. Still, I make him 4/1 and an outstanding gamble. As good as they get in a Group 1 in which the market is as refined as can be.

I will also have something on Sun God and Von Hauke, who were both very good in the Rupert Clarke and can run figures that suggest they are better than their respective 20/1 and 30/1 quotes.

Race 1: Veyeepee

Away from the three Group 1 feature races, the betting is stronger still.

Veyeepee has been tremendous in two runs since a spell. He raced himself out of a difficult situation on resumption, quickening through horses and reeling in the leader. He was wide without cover at Mornington last start, too, so he’s entitled to an abundance of improvement in his third run of the campaign.

He races against two similarly talented four-year-olds, In’kantostar and Just Desserts, but I doubt either are nearly as progressive.

Of course, that is offset by Veyeepee carrying four kilograms more than the other two. Even still, I find him more likely to improve, much more so than the other two, even if he does not possess an obvious ratings advantage at the weights carried at this stage.

Pace is assured, too, so it will call upon the reserves he has that the others don’t. I make him a $2.60 chance, or thereabouts, so I show value on the current $3.

Herbert Power Stakes

The Herbert Power is usually a favourite of mine, and this year is much the same. There’s a lack of good mile-and-a-half races on the Victorian calendar, and when one comes around, it’s important to do them justice.

I remember watching Royal Ascot last year, on the second day, in the Queen’s Vase, a race won by some familiar names: Stradivarius, Hartnell, Mahler, and so on. One of the biggest lump jobs ever to be seen.

If my memory serves, Pinhole was 16/1 into 4/1 within a few minutes of gambling. On the biggest stage, no less. Warmed my heart, it did. He finished eighth, but that’s beside the point.

That has no relevance, really, other than to say that Pinhole is a progressive import with a tremendous profile over a mile and a half.

He was good enough to win over ten furlongs, beating Starzintheireyes, much to the disgust of punters around the nation, and did so in fast time.

Any excuse to back James McDonald is a good one, and this is certainly that. I must admit, I am on at 5/1, and truly I do hate to be the bloke that says, “Yeah, nah, I’m on at the good odds, but he’s 3/1 now.”

But I make him $3.50, so better than $4 is an acceptable price.

For what it’s worth, and it mightn’t be much, there was a glimpse of something in Knight’s Choice last start. Any chance to back a Melbourne Cup winner is a good one.

Betting can be arduous, and backing horses by the numbers is great, but where’s the fun in it? If I can shine any value at all on a horse I like, then they deserve some of mine.

There is enormous positive EV in fun. I make Knight’s Choice 10/1, and I can’t wait to back him.

Northwood Plume Stakes

The Northwood Plume is staged as a rematch between Point Barrow and Bridal Waltz after Ben Melham’s much-discussed tactical mishap in the How Now.

Interestingly, the early betting is suggesting that Bridal Waltz should have beaten Point Barrow, and perhaps she might have. But that doesn’t really have much bearing on this race, I don’t believe. Bridal Waltz was allowed complete control and led at only an average pace.

There will be others vying for the lead this time, which will culminate in more pace. If that is the case, that favours Point Barrow.

So, for her to beat her last start, when unsuited and having to reel off a 33.6 split over the last 600 metres, she’s much better placed with more pace on.

I make Point Barrow favourite; her sectional times were utterly dominant, and with more pace, she’d have won by further.

$2.60 is my price for Point Barrow, while I marked Bridal Waltz $3.20. I’m by no means dismissing her; I just think she’s been given too much credit.

Caulfield Guineas: Not overly keen to bet. Selections represent value against assessed prices. Prices are indicative and subject to change.