The Bletchingly Stakes marks another step towards the return of Group 1 performers, with favourite Cosmic Crusader fitting that description perfectly after taking out the Northerly Stakes in Western Australia earlier this year.
WATCH: Cosmic Crusader take out the Northerly
Highly regarded, he’s said to be the best horse to cross the Nullarbor since Arcadia Queen, which tells you everything you need to know about the level he’s expected to reach this spring. On that basis alone, he deserves to head the market on Saturday; there’s no doubt about that.
But it’s never about whether you like a horse; it’s about how much you like a horse. And in my view, Cosmic Crusader’s chances lie somewhere between $4.00 and $4.50.
He’s drawn awkwardly, with the rail likely to be a disadvantage as the day wears on, and he risks being outpaced over the opening stages.
That could leave him buried three back along the fence, needing to quicken through a tight gap once the pace increases in the straight. He is also first-up, with bigger targets ahead. Even so, on raw talent, he’s conservatively three lengths superior to this field, pound for pound, which makes it very difficult to dismiss him, even if the odds are stacked against him.
The key lead-up, the Sir John Monash Stakes, is a race I have little time for. As noted in the inaugural edition of Weekend At Bot’s, it rated poorly, with less than a length covering the first six and an overall time that was only moderate. The run of the race was Bellatrix Star, who bypasses this in favour of the Aurie’s Star next week.
The winner, Winnasedge, had every conceivable favour and, to my eye, does not have an inch of improvement left in him this campaign.
There is little between Watchme Win, Winnasedge and Miraval Rose. I’ve priced them all between $6 and $7 accordingly.
The runner of the most interest, however, is Zou Sensation. His two-run stint in Queensland was underwhelming, but it’s easy enough to dismiss that when you assess him on his stronger Victorian form, namely his wins in the Weekend Hussler and Kensington Stakes. You can also look to his starting price against Tom Kitten in the Kevin Heffernan, and against Angel Capital in the Chautauqua Stakes over 1200 metres at The Valley.
He will control the pace, a decisive edge in a race like this, and has been known to race well with a short lay-off between runs. While he is evidently at his best over seven furlongs, his six-furlong form is more than sufficient to measure up in what looks a thin edition of the Bletchingly Stakes. He has been consistently tested in better races than this, where much more has been expected of him.
At the price, with the race shape and conditions in his favour, he is a very straightforward bet.
Will’s prices for this year’s Bletchingly Stakes:
| Race | Distance | No. | Horse | Will’s Price | TAB Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R7 | 1200m | 1 | Cosmic Crusader | $4.20 | $3.50 |
| R7 | 1200m | 2 | Recommendation | $10.00 | $8.00 |
| R7 | 1200m | 3 | Zou Sensation | $7.50 | $7.50 |
| R7 | 1200m | 4 | Aztec Ruler | $41.00 | $26.00 |
| R7 | 1200m | 5 | Title Fighter | $251.00 | $101.00 |
| R7 | 1200m | 6 | Watchme Win | $7.00 | $6.00 |
| R7 | 1200m | 7 | Winnasedge | $6.00 | $3.90 |
| R7 | 1200m | 8 | Miraval Rose | $6.00 | $5.00 |
| R7 | 1200m | 9 | Samangu | $41.00 | $34.00 |
To the best bet of the day: Custom returned in excellent order first-up in a race that turned into a burn-up over the final 400 metres. She has proven effective in races where the pace is slow and where the pace is fast, but most importantly, she appears to be improving with age.
There should be enough pace on for her to run at, and this appears a relatively thin race where, if she runs to her best form, I think she will win. She should find cover from the westerly before peeling into the middle of the track, building through her gears and, if she runs to her peak rating, proving very hard to hold out.
She’s no certainty, of course, but she just makes sense. I’ve marked her $2.60.
Will’s prices for race one
| Race | Distance | No. | Horse | Will’s Price | TAB Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 1200m | 1 | Takeko | $8.00 | $5.50 |
| R1 | 1200m | 2 | Glasgow Lass | $19.00 | $12.00 |
| R1 | 1200m | 3 | Custom | $2.60 | $2.60 |
| R1 | 1200m | 4 | Divine Thoughts | $31.00 | $21.00 |
| R1 | 1200m | 5 | Recuperato | $6.50 | $5.00 |
| R1 | 1200m | 6 | Royal Lass | $71.00 | $41.00 |
| R1 | 1200m | 7 | Mystery ‘n’ Drama | $18.00 | $10.00 |
| R1 | 1200m | 8 | Sun Setting | $14.00 | $11.00 |
| R1 | 1200m | 9 | Vain Champagne | $17.00 | $12.00 |
| R1 | 1200m | 10 | Happy Link | $19.00 | $14.00 |
A runner at big odds I’d be remiss to leave out is Ferario for Patrick Payne, who found a slowly run 2000 metres a little sharp. He is a mile-and-a-half type, and with a degree of pace engaged in this, he can improve markedly.
It’s a race that’s difficult to price with confidence, but I’ve marked him single figures, and I’ll certainly be having something on him.
Will’s bets:
Race 1 Custom (Best of the day)
Race 6 Ferrario (Value)
Race 7 Zou Sensation
