The final Cox Plate at The Valley as we know and love it, and, unfortunately, it’s a disappointing edition. Not necessarily from a form perspective, but from an intrigue standpoint, it lacks an exciting three-year-old, an international raider, or even the winner of the main lead-up. In truth, it shapes as little more than a re-run of the Turnbull Stakes. Nonetheless, there’s still a winner to be found, and that’s what we’re here for.
Via Sistina headlines the Cox Plate as last year’s champion, having shattered the track record and won by an astonishing eight lengths.
“A CENTURY OF THE VERY BEST!”
After a dramatic week, VIA SISTINA wins the 2024 Cox Plate & gives @mcacajamez 100 Group 1 victories 💚 @cwallerracing pic.twitter.com/MyKM4Th8z7
— Racing.com (@Racing) October 26, 2024
This spring, however, has been less dominant; she’s won just once and has only managed third in both the Makybe Diva and Turnbull Stakes.
Nonetheless, she must sit at the forefront of betting, both on profile as Australia’s best horse and given Chris Waller’s proficiency to have his best horses peak on their big days. The market continues to price her as though her best is imminent, yet she’s reached that figure only once in her past seven starts. Thus, it’s difficult to forecast her producing her peak performance rating, though history reminds us she’s more than capable of producing a spike rating when it matters most, as she did last year.
From a sectional time perspective, she was only bettered by subsequent Caulfield Cup winner Half Yours over the concluding 800 metres of the Turnbull Stakes. She managed to finish the race 8.2 lengths quicker than what is typical for Group 1 standard over 2000 metres at Flemington. In that final 800m, Via Sistina clocked sectional splits of 63.3km/h (800–600m), 67km/h (600–400m), 65.3km/h (400–200m), and 61.9km/h (200m–home), a profile that exemplifies her ability to quicken drastically, yet also displays her notable taper over the final 200 metres, suggesting that she’ll take the benefit of fitness from that run.
Antino has been steadily building back towards the peaks he reached during the Brisbane winter carnival, where he was winning by big margins in scintillating time. Winless this campaign and overlooked by the market, he arrives at The Valley with a genuine chance to return the Cox Plate to Queensland. He was outpaced first-up over 1400 metres, then produced the fastest closing sectionals in the Makybe Diva Stakes over a mile, before sustaining a brave run in the Turnbull Stakes, only finding Sir Delius superior late.
Turnbull Stakes | Sir Delius
Sir Delius stamps his authority over the middle distance division, surging away with a comprehensive victory in the Turnbull Stakes ⭐️
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/UXYz05cDMU— Racing.com (@Racing) October 4, 2025
I’ve long maintained that ten furlongs is as short as he wants, and that a mile and a half may ultimately be his ideal trip. His best performances have come in brutally run middle-distance races, which is why a high-pressure Cox Plate should play perfectly to his strengths.
That said, there doesn’t appear to be much speed outside of Light Infantry Man, though Blake Shinn has shown he’s not afraid to roll forward mid-race and inject pace, as he did in Queensland. Having already beaten Via Sistina last start, and given the strength of his winter performance ratings, the disparity in price between the pair looks overstated, making him a genuine betting proposition at the price.
Aeliana was well-backed to upset Via Sistina, Sir Delius, and Antino in the Turnbull Stakes, but could manage only fifth, unable to quicken with the sharper finishers. She shaped like a mare crying out for a mile and a half, as she’s the perfect Caulfield Cup type had she lined up last weekend. To win here, she’ll need to produce a new career peak, one she hasn’t reached before, but she’s in the right stable to find that kind of improvement when it matters.
Her closing furlong in the Turnbull Stakes offered encouragement, while she couldn’t match the sharper turn of foot of her rivals, she maintained a strong gallop to record the race’s fourth-fastest final 200 metres.
Most notably, she was heavily supported in betting, starting as a pronounced second favourite, the market anticipating a performance level we’re yet to see from her. That confidence in her capacity to produce a new career peak gives her genuine hope in this contest
Treasurethe Moment has failed to meet market expectations since returning from a bout of colic, beaten at odds-on in consecutive starts. Her recent performance ratings sit well below her peak, and she would need to rebound sharply to be competitive in a race of this quality. There’s also legitimate doubt over her ability to perform at her best over 2000 metres. While she boasts two Oaks victories, both came in slowly run races that fell well short of the standard she’s produced over seven and eight furlongs.
On paper, the Cox Plate pace looks slow, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see early pressure before Antino injects tempo mid-race, as he has done previously. At the current prices, Antino and Aeliana stand out as the runners offering value, whereas Treasurethe Moment appears overbet and under the odds.
Below is Will Elford’s market to 100% alongside the current bet365 odds. Click here to access the bet365 market.
