It’s moving day, as they call it.
Saturday is the day where each horse must start to hit top gear; if not, they’re in trouble.
Turnbull Stakes Day this year will be run in treacherous conditions. It will be as wet as Flemington possibly can be, provided the forecast rain arrives: 15–35mm, 10–35mm and 6–25mm are all expected over the next three days.
You’ll need to back horses that can swim.
Turnbull Stakes
The Turnbull Stakes itself is very much dominated by those towards the front end of the market.
Sir Delius was as good as he could be in a slowly run mile in the Makybe Diva. He was never going to contend with Sheza Alibi in a sprint, but he ran well nonetheless. Three weeks on, he rises to a mile and a quarter and is a deserving favourite to win consecutive Turnbull Stakes.
Aeliana is the other titan in the race, but the less likely of the two. She had his measure in the Ranvet Stakes, but she settled in front of him and beat him for speed. This campaign, though, she is somewhat behind schedule after missing a barrier trial.
She was terrible first-up, well beaten and last. She improved drastically in the Seven Stakes, finishing second to Autumn Glow. That was a terribly slow mile, though, and in testing conditions at Flemington, she may still need a fast race to bring her on.
Cosmic Crusader’s chances loosely hang on the idea that he has a significant fitness advantage, which is crucial in a mile-and-a-quarter race on a heavy track. He would need the two superstars that head the betting to underperform, though, and he seems under the odds by my assessment.
I have marked Sir Delius $2.80, so the 2/1 is tempting, but I think I’ll leave it and hope for a better price on raceday.
Race 2:
Despite the deluge of rain expected, there are plenty of fancies across the day’s racing.
The first is Cabriole, a horse the market has held in high regard for some time. He returned at The Heath over five furlongs and won well without running the hands off the clock. He knuckled quite badly at the start and was pushed along to take up a forward position.
The old adage of a Group horse in a handicap might just suffice.
Of course, there is a slight concern with the projected rain; he raced below expectations on a heavy track at Caulfield in May, but that was the infamous day where they were finishing along the standside running rail, so perhaps it’s not smart to read too heavily into that.
I’ve marked Cabriole $3.80, and he’s an excellent option for punters looking to begin the day with a winner.
Race 6: The Danehill
The Danehill is usually a pivotal race in the lead-in to the Coolmore Stud Stakes, and this year is no different.
Natural Fling is currently favourite after running well for third in the Moir Stakes. I don’t necessarily disagree with her position in the market, but I’d contend that she’s run the rating through opportunity.
The Next Episode accounted for her with ease on the Gold Coast on rain-affected going, and he’s been on the sidelines since.
Much has been discussed about his lead-up trials in Sydney, many quick to say that he’d not returned as the horse he was, but that was quickly shelved after a scintillating piece of work behind Jimmysstar at Cranbourne thereafter.
Because he’s not had the opportunity, as there’s so much left to be uncovered with him, there’s a chance to back him on Saturday to beat the filly. By all reports, he’s in rude health, and I want to back him to markedly improve and race into Coolmore contention, if he’s not already in it.
Better than 3/1 is a sensational price, and one that should be taken. I make The Next Episode $3.40 and a very exciting option for punters away from the favourite.
There are two others of interest.
Pocketfullofcash is highly talented, winning a Pakenham maiden in fast time and laying up with Natural Fling in a recent Flemington jump-out. He’s worth having something very small on too.
And finally, at 100/1, it would not surprise to see Alibaba run an enormous race. He was in Blue Diamond contention as a two-year-old and is the type to improve at three. He has jumped out in excellent order and will jump mammoth odds on the exchange. I will be having something very small on him.
Race 7:
The golden ticket into the Melbourne Cup, the Bart Cummings Stakes, is headlined by the hyper-progressive Aethelwulf, who has won his previous four with contempt.
He’s constantly improving, with huge jumps in ratings at each start. There’s no reason for him not to continue his ascension; however, the heavy going may play a part in stopping him. There’s talk that he mightn’t run and stay in Sydney for the Metropolitan.
Either way, I’m very much interested in backing Juja Kibo, who ran a peak figure just second-up in the Kingston Town.
He’s well adept on rain-affected going, will race on pace with a tractable racing style, and will enjoy a sensational run. At 5/1 with Aethelwulf in the race, he’s a great bet, but with him out, he’s an even better one, and I hope that the favourite comes out.
I make him a $4.60 chance provided the favourite runs, and a $3.20 chance if he doesn’t. Perhaps the best of the day, if he doesn’t.
He’s constantly improving, and a new career best could well be in order on Saturday.
Suggested bets
Race 2: Cabriole
Race 6: The Next Episode
Race 6: Pocketfullofcash, small bet
Race 6: Alibaba, very small bet
Race 7: Juja Kibo
