Good Will Hunting – Melbourne Cup

The 2025 Melbourne Cup shapes as another intriguing edition of Australia’s greatest race. This year’s edition amalgamates Group 1 international form lines with the best of our own, with one of Ireland’s premier stayers, Al Riffa and Caulfield Cup winner, Half Yours, heading the market at this stage.

Al Riffa brings elite European form lines and a commanding ratings profile, boasting a Timeform mark of 125, the figure he produced to win the Irish St Leger at the Curragh by five lengths in September. He travelled strongly into the race that day and dismissed quality opposition with ease. Last year, European punters thought so highly of him that he was sent away in The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe as a $10 chance, following a dominant win in the Grosser Preis von Berlin. He arrives in Australia with genuine world-class credentials and has experience in travelling all over the world.

A hugely impressive performance from the @JosephOBrien2-trained Al Riffa in the G1 Comer Group Irish St Leger pic.twitter.com/NJXHmzAbpf

— The Curragh Racecourse (@curraghrace) September 14, 2025

Barrier 19 isn’t necessarily appealing, provided his lack of early speed, but connections have Mark Zahra to offset any difficulties surrounding a barrier, fresh off a red-letter Derby Day. He looks assured to stay two miles strongly, yet retains the speed that saw him mix it with City Of Troy in last year’s Coral Eclipse. He’s built for the modern Melbourne Cup, and to me, he looks as if he is the one they all have to beat, provided he’s acclimatised well.

Buckaroo had been below his best for much of the spring before equalling the best performance rating of his career in the Cox Plate, where he travelled into the race like the winner before being narrowly denied by Via Sistina. Any doubts surrounding his condition were swiftly dispelled, and he now shapes as a prominent contender for the Cup. Sent away as favourite in last year’s edition, he was given an impossible task, asked to circumnavigate the field ten wide into Flemington’s long straight, a manoeuvre made hopeless by a track that heavily favoured runners on the inside lanes.

Presage Nocturne anointed himself as a leading Melbourne Cup fancy with a powerful finish in the Caulfield Cup, producing the fastest 400–200 metre split of the race. After being shuffled back at a crucial stage, dropping from midfield to near last between the 800 and 600 metres, he was exceptional under the circumstances. With a more economical trip, Stephane Pasquier should be able to have him settle well relative to the expected pace. Although he profiles as a grinding European stayer, his form in France suggests he can also quicken sharply off a slow pace, making him a likeable chance in the race.

It’s HALF YOURS’ Caulfield Cup! 🏆

What a win! Will we see the emerging star in the #MelbourneCup?

🎥: @Racing

pic.twitter.com/bGamP7ikpc

— World Horse Racing (@WHR) October 18, 2025

Half Yours ticks plenty of boxes coming off a strong Caulfield Cup win. He shapes as though he’ll stay the two miles, having clocked the equal-fastest last 400 metres at Caulfield, and maps for another soft run in behind the speed. His profile is perfect for a Melbourne Cup, but whether he can find another level remains the query. He’s an obvious winning hope, but I’m erring on the side of caution with him, and have marked him $10, as opposed to the current $8.50 available.

Valiant King has finally found his feet in Australia. Imported as a highly touted Irish stayer, he spent much of the past two years well below his best. He stayed on relentlessly to win the Bart Cummings, beating the subsequent Geelong Cup winner by just shy of three lengths, and finished with the equal-fastest final 400 metres in the Caulfield Cup. With just 51kg, he’s peaking at the right time. That said, I’ll be pulling his tail, having backed him at 100/1 in last year’s Melbourne Cup.

River Of Stars was arguably too close to an unrelenting pace in the Caulfield Cup but stayed on brilliantly to run second. She stays the two miles well and should be able to settle close to the speed here, which is likely to be softer than it was at Caulfield. She’s clearly looking for this test of stamina, and it’s worth noting she finished alongside Presage Nocturne in the Prix Gladiateur back in September last year.

The pace looks set to be genuine but not blistering, favouring runners who can settle well in a prominent position and deliver a strong late sprint. Al Riffa is the one they’ll all have to beat, a world-class Irish stayer who will see out two miles and has the speed to adapt to whatever pace develops. Buckaroo is another runner of interest, coming off an equal career-best Cox Plate, while River Of Stars isn’t without a chance either; she may be without the quality of a few others, but stays well and should get a soft run behind the speed with a light weight, making her appealing.

From a betting perspective, I’m likely to bracket these three, with a price of $3.66. According to my rated prices, I’d value the three of them at $2.71, making it an appealing betting option.