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Can Classic Gem cause an upset in the Oaks?

Can Classic Gem cause an upset in the Oaks?

Good Will Hunting: Oaks

Will Elford takes a look at Thursday's Group 1 feature, the Crown Oaks. And he's gone value hunting around the favourite.

Will Elford by Will Elford
November 5, 2025
in Tips, VIC Tips
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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Getta Good Feeling is a commanding and deserving favourite for the Oaks. Although the $1.80 quote, and even shorter in places, assumes further improvement from her Wakeful Stakes win, which may be a fair assessment given her profile, I’m slightly sceptical of her stamina. With that said, this race has the potential to evolve into a test of late speed, and if that proves the case, she has the turn of foot to put them away quickly.

Oaks says hellooo… 👋

GETTA GOOD FEELING is impressive winning the G2 Wakeful Stakes @FlemingtonVRC… 🥂

🎥: @wwos | #DerbyDay | #MelbourneCup

pic.twitter.com/xB6fhAfdNM

— World Horse Racing (@WHR) November 1, 2025

I’m not laying her per se, nor taking a strong stance against the filly, but I do think her true price sits a shade north of evens. To suggest she’s a vulnerable favourite would be wrong, but I’m in no way inclined to take odds on about her.

The three-pronged attack I’ll be using to get her beaten is Classic Gem, After Summer, and Sheeza Diva, combining for a bracket price just shy of $10.00.

Classic Gem had settled ahead of just three rivals from 35 runners in total across her first four starts, all in slowly run races. That changed in the Ethereal, where she settled midfield in an honest test over ten furlongs. She’d been under-conditioned for that run after a 27-day gap, coming through a race that was an extraordinary 40 lengths slower than standard to the 800 metres, a farce, frankly. Nonetheless, she sustained a strong run from the 800 metres and still clocked the fastest concluding 200 metres of the race. She’ll strip fitter here and can elevate from a performance rating perspective over this distance.

Sheeza Diva produced the fastest last 600 metres in The Gloaming when running into fourth, and subsequently started the same price as The Pearls in the Spring Champion. That effort was forgettable; she was buffeted and held up at key stages. She’s from the family of 2017 Oaks winner Pinot, and everything about her profile suggests she’ll stay 2500 metres well.

After Summer has intertwined form with Classic Gem in each of her starts, and continues to race well. She’s posted strong sectional times and shapes as another filly who’ll appreciate 2500 metres. She can take a prominent position to the pace from barrier 2, if the race eventuates into another slowly run affair.

Tipping the pace in this race looks impossible; there could very well be a jostle to find position, with The Pearls, After Summer, Getta Good Feeling, Just A Journey and Voting Rights attempting to find a good position, incentivising some pace. However, this is an Oaks and all thirteen fillies are untried at this distance, meaning connections may want a test of speed, rather than stamina.

Without strong conviction, Classic Gem, After Summer, and Sheeza Diva each appeal as value runners at big odds.

No Horse Wills Price Bet365 Odds
1 Getta Good Feeling $2.15 $1.80
2 The Pearls $9.50 $7.50
3 Spicy Lu $12 $11
4 Just A Journey $14 $10
5 Ethereum Girl $41 $17
6 Sheeza Diva $21 $34
7 Strictly Business $14 $10
8 After Summer $21 $31
9 Zouclaire $501 $81
10 Voting Rights $51 $34
11 Morisu Ojo $251 $81
12 Classic Gem $15 $23
13 Janey Bopper $2001 $151
Tags: FlemingtonFlemington TipsGetta Good FeelingOaks TipsSpring Carnival Tips
Will Elford

Will Elford

Will is an emerging form analyst with a passion for dissecting Victorian horse racing. Racing has been at the forefront of Will's life since he was 15, with a keen interest in pricing markets.

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