The two best horses in the land make their return to racing in the Winx Stakes, but that matters little to us with a nine-race program at Sandown. The feature, the Carlyon Stakes whets the appetite for the speedsters we’ll see in the Moir Stakes in a fortnight’s time.
Carlyon Stakes
Cavalry Girl is favourite for Tom Dabernig after two dominant wins, the first in South Australia in fast time, the second at the tight-turning Caulfield Heath in much slower time. She is clearly deserving of favouritism and has shown that she is adaptable to different race scenarios. She has improved markedly with racing and would be a typical, if not better-than-typical, Carlyon Stakes winner if she can reproduce her figure from last start.
Watch: Cavalry Girl win the Lightning Stakes
It is not quite as simple as assuming she will repeat that performance, though, as she faces Beast Mode, who is rapid over five furlongs and looks likely to set the speed. His connections would be ruing the demise of The Valley, where he would take plenty of catching. Sandown presents a very different challenge for him.
Nonetheless, I make him an $8.00 chance, which is in line with the market.
Hedged and Extragalactic resume after finishing second in Group 1 races last preparation, although neither is quite as naturally suited to this anaerobic test as the runners mentioned above.
If I were to push one runner, it would be Cavalry Girl. I make her a $3.20 chance and will be on her if she is easy to back on Saturday.
Sandown Race 8
The best bet of the day comes in the following race, where Gold Coast Belle is not favourite, and surely must start so after progressing nicely through the grades as a three-year-old filly.
The favourite, Tennessee Bound, is lightly raced, but in my view has little progression left. I believe the market is forecasting her to reach a level beyond what she is capable of. Her ratings have plateaued this campaign. The more often she runs to the same number, the stronger the case becomes that there is limited improvement left.
Gold Coast Belle, meanwhile, has improved with each start, and culminated last campaign by winning the Bendigo Guineas, racing wide without cover and beating Bel Mezyaan and Wise Inlaw who represented the form well through the winter.
She is supremely weighted and has jumped-out well leading into this run. I think she will start favourite, and I have marked her a $2.40 chance.
Sandown Race 3
Think Giant is another runner who is not currently favourite but, in my view, will challenge for favouritism in the staying race on the card.
He is a lightly raced French import who was Group-placed as a two-year-old and culminated his European career in the Preis von Europa, a Group 1 over a mile and a half in Germany. He was largely uncompetitive there, finishing fifth and beaten four lengths, but importantly, he raced on pace. Perhaps, at his third start on Australian soil, he can show a glimpse of that early speed and settle prominently as he steps up to his preferred distance.
Nearco Frod is favourite and is very reliable at a rating of 94 once the weight scale is taken into account. Think Giant, however, is more than capable of reaching that level and racing his way into better contests than this.
The market thought highly of him last start when he was beaten by Saint George, who is an excellent benchmark for a race of this nature.
If Think Giant reproduces the level the market expected of him on that occasion, he should eclipse this field, and do so comfortably.
He has been well supported since I began writing, and I’m in a rush to get this out because he will soon become favourite. My assertion that he should be favourite is becoming less profound by the minute, making me sound less and less shrewd, which, of course, is the entire point, no?
I’ve assessed Think Giant as a $2.80 chance, which is around the price I expect him to start.
Will’s Best bets
- Race 3 Think Giant
- Race 8 Gold Coast Belle
