Racing returns to Headquarters this Saturday, as the Flemington straight plays host to a showdown between the established and the emerging. Veteran sprinter Giga Kick squares off against Tentyris, last year’s Coolmore Stud Stakes champion over the straight five at Flemington.
For all that it is dominated by the market’s leading pair, the Golden Rose victor and Rosehill 1400 metres track-record holder, Beiwacht, will ensure that this doesn’t eventuate into a two-horse race. Not to mention the Coolmore Stud Stakes runner-up My Gladiola, Moir Stakes winner Baraqiel and Golden Slipper heroine Marhoona.
An enthralling race to decipher, and one that will set the scene for the remainder of the season.
Tentyris was exceptional in the spring, returning from injury in the Danehill Stakes where he clocked the meeting’s fastest 400–200 metre split, accelerating into the race as though poised to make a triumphant return before fitness told late and he faded to third. On Caulfield Cup Day in the Gothic Stakes, Mark Zahra rode him conservatively, giving him plenty to do, yet the colt exceeded expectations, producing a devastating final 400 metres to reel in the San Domenico winner inside the final half-furlong. His campaign culminated in one of the sprinting performances of the season in the Coolmore Stud Stakes, emphatically declaring himself the premier three-year-old of his generation and the most exciting sprinter in Australia.
Five furlongs must be some concern, but Tentyris is gifted with an exceptional stride frequency, which suggests he’ll cope just fine.
Simultaneously, for a race over 1000 metres, this year’s Lightning is markedly devoid of pace, thus his ability to quicken becomes principal.
Giga Kick must offer some resistance. He’s a brilliant sprinter in his own right, but I wouldn’t be on my own suggesting that he has not been his best over five furlongs previously. He’s at his very best over a truly run six. For all that the Champion Sprint was nostalgic, it’s worth remembering that he only scraped past Magic Time by a nostril.
I’m prepared to risk him here and let a champion beat me if he’s able to win on Saturday.
As outlined in my stride frequency article yesterday, I’m extremely worried for Beiwacht at this distance, particularly if the pace is slow. He doesn’t turn his stride over quickly enough to be effective over five furlongs, and I would be surprised if he proves me wrong.
Perhaps the greatest danger to Tentyris is the filly, My Gladiola, but I work on time and form ratings, and she hasn’t run fast enough yet to justify her price inside 9/1.
Tentyris is currently 6/4, and I’m more than happy to suggest that price as a bet to anyone and everyone who will listen.
Elsewhere, Saint George appeals again. He’s been my best at his past two starts and is an enticing price once again. As is tradition in Victorian staying races, this race is devoid of pace, thus Saint George can take advantage by settling prominently to the lead, as he did over ten furlongs last start.
If this race develops into a test of speed, he’s well equipped. Should someone inject pace, I’ll concede a degree of concern, as he’s probably best over ten furlongs, but he has the class to cope with that scenario too.
2/1 doesn’t do his recent form justice. I couldn’t price him any longer than 6/4.
Fiorenot rises in grade with recent victories over nine furlongs in Benchmark 70 grade, both achieved in strong time. An honest pace is forecast, which will leave no stone unturned. I’m rather enthusiastic about opposing Taka Speed and Trapalanda, neither of whom have rated anywhere near well enough to warrant their place in the market, thus leaving Fiorenot an outstanding bet.
He is a lightly raced five-year-old with just nine starts, but has evidently improved with racing. Ten furlongs is little concern, and on the ratings I work with, he merely needs to replicate his most recent form. Given my disregard for the market’s second and third elects, I’m comfortable pricing Fiorenot well inside his current price and making him a suggested bet.
Suggested bets:
Race 8: Tentyris @ $2.50
Race 6: Saint George @ $2.90
Race 2: Fiorenot @ $3.40
