Good Will Hunting: Turnbull Stakes

Via Sistina

The reigning Horse of the Year, Via Sistina, sits atop the standings in what shapes as a classic edition of the Turnbull Stakes. She claimed the race 12 months ago with an elite performance rating and once again brings a decisive edge on exposed form. She undeniably deserves overwhelming favouritism.

In two runs this preparation, we’ve yet to see Via Sistina return a rating of elite quality, albeit confined to distances shorter than what is preferable. In fact, despite losing in the Makybe Diva Stakes, she’s exactly where she needs to be to defend her Cox Plate crown later this month. While it’s unrealistic to expect her absolute peak in this, having her run to the level of form she used to win this race last year is completely justifiable.

The Makybe Diva eventuated into a test of late speed, of which she had plenty, but found herself outpaced by the likes of Mr Brightside and Aeliana. Her asset is to maintain a gruelling pace for 2000 metres, not to burn her opposition with a turn of speed at the end of a mile.

MR BRIGHTSIDE 👑

Three Makybe Diva Stakes wins in a row for the Champion! One of the modern greats of the turf 💖😍 pic.twitter.com/SY8C9RE18q

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) September 13, 2025

This time, conditions turn firmly in her favour. In a genuinely run ten furlongs, she holds the advantage and has every chance to reaffirm her status as the premier horse in the middle distance division.
Over 2000 metres in Australia, she’s raced six times, winning five, with her only defeat coming in Pride Of Jenni’s Queen Elizabeth. She’s consistently produced a performance rating that her opposition are incapable of running, and with the right race shape and right man on board, I’ve assessed her as an even money chance to win her second Turnbull Stakes.

Sir Delius

Sir Delius was beaten for a turn of speed at the top of the straight in the Underwood Stakes, before rallying strongly to and through the line to overhaul last year’s Turnbull Stakes runner-up Buckaroo. That race didn’t particularly rank well, but the style in which he did it suggests further improvement is imminent.

While we’ve not seen his ceiling in Australia thus far, the market has been quick to latch onto him, sending him away as a short-priced favourite against quality opposition last start. An end-to-end ten furlongs may be the catalyst for a new peak, and on that basis, he deserves to be rated among the leading chances.

Aeliana

Aeliana was a dominant winner of the ATC Derby in the autumn, careering away with a five-length win over the mile and a half trip.
She’s seemingly returned as an improved four-year-old mare, managing to outpace Via Sistina at the end of the Makybe Diva last start. In a strong gallop over 2000 metres, she’ll undoubtedly be suited, but desperately needs to return a figure that she’s not come close to in her career to date.

AELIANA DESTROYS THE BOYS IN THE DERBY! 😮‍💨@cwallerracing @StarTbreds @LaneDamian pic.twitter.com/vtCSQaKhKH

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) April 5, 2025

Antino

Antino was scintillating through the Brisbane winter months, utilising his ability to sustain a burst of speed in high-pressure races, winning in fast overall time. That hasn’t quite worked out thus far in this preparation, finishing fifth and fourth in two runs. If he can recapture the level of form he was in five months ago, he’ll test Via Sistina if she’s to run to her typical level over ten furlongs.
Nonetheless, he drastically needs to improve, but finds a suitable scenario to do so.

My rated prices:

Verdict

I’m tipping the pace to be honest, not unrelenting, but a searching gallop that’ll draw out the best of Via Sistina. If the pace is honest, and barring bad luck in transit, we can expect a level of form from Via Sistina that her opposition can’t handle. The current $2.60 available is a spectacular chance to back one of the great horses of this generation.