Turf Talk:
- Rail True
- Wet to start the week but should be better by race day. Not too much rain but still cold weather and not ideal drying conditions.
- Sunshine Coast calls for strong horses, especially if rain affected.
Stats that matter:
- Matt Dunn has trained 9 winners from his last 50 runners and ROI +74.5%
- Michael Freedman has 10 winners from his last 50 runners and ROI +42.4%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(6) Ruins Of Rome and (7) Sultry Siren both have the ability to win here but they have drawn way out. Their hope will be the rail is off and it might not be too bad of a draw if that’s the case.
(19) Hellarious will roll forward and back to 1200m looks suitable to me. Thompson is a great booking and may be hard to get past late.
Everything says (3) Livalittle will need the run and further. Has a bit of class, so don’t be surprised if he runs better than most think.
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
(6) Balance The Books has shown good ability and was a dominant winner at Ipswich against the pattern. Nice horse in the leading stable with upside. Gate looks sticky but may end up in the right part of the track.
(13) Break Free is very consistent and still on the way up. Like the month between runs and does have a turn of foot.
(3) She’s Exotic has won 7 of 13 and handles all ground. Don’t like the weight but rock hard fit and can run a race.
(4) Shot Of Whiskey can look the winner but can be a weak animal late. More for exotics than the win for me.
(8) Click Click Boom has won or placed in 5 of 7 at the track an another for exotics.
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
(7) Lady Of Five has always had exceptional speed so you’d expect her to win her recent trials. Also a chance she comes back a bit stronger and can be hard to run down here.
(13) Cascading was good on debut and tipped straight out. Has won recent trial in fashion and can run well.
(6) Fearless Win is another who has trialled well. Reckon it is an underrated type and is up to a race like this over 1000m.
(2) Areprice is better suited back to 1000m and is a consistent type. Don’t sell it short.
A heap of other chances in a very open race.
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
The two at the top are the class horses but they are fillies having to give weight to the boys which is always tough.
(1) Foreign Press is a very good one but gates and other things have been costly this prep. Finds a winnable race but the big weight is a query for sure.
(2) Get Ready Lass is consistent and was a winner fresh last prep over this track/trip. Wide gate isn’t ideal but not the end of the world. Still hard to beat despite the weight.
(4) All Adore has been good and only beaten 2.1L in Listed grade last time out. Fair weight and expecting another good run even though she’s been up a long time.
(8) Hand In Hand joins Gollan from overseas and has trialled OK. Market the only guide.
(9) Jimmy’s Brother is lightly raced with upside and has Thompson on top.
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (2) Get Ready Lass
Race 5:
Maher has (1) Epic Proportions and it surprises me to note he has a good record over this trip. Also a very good fresh record (4:2:2:0) and they should run along and he can finish off hard.
(2) Steady Ready is a real speedster and classy on his day. Has been consistent this prep and more than up to these on that recent form.
(14) Wanda Rox is a 1000m specialist. Has won or placed in 13 of 15 over this trip. Also runner up at both starts this track/trip.
(7) Nettuno is classy on his day but I have some massive trust issues with his consistency.
(15) Zouperb is an underrated type and can add value to exotics.
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
Always a handy race the Winx Guineas.
The toppy (1) Platinum Pantheon was excellent attacking the line from the back over 1200m two back. Last start over 1350m raced closer and just run over on the line.
(4) Kohler Kid was the one that ran over the topweight last start and is a model of consistency. Should get the trip and be competitive again.
(10) Within The Law is one who is craving the mile and will be stronger than most of these the L200m. Been racing the A graders and comes here on the quick back up (has run well doing that before).
(11) Tupakara raced below what I expected last start when I was keen. Don’t want to say it can’t win here. Happy to forgive that run.
Suggested Bet: Win (10) Within The Law
Race 7:
Fair to say (5) Thebudgiesmugla looks to be the one on the way up. Has had a fair bit of racing this prep but comes here off a Listed 2400m win in Sydney. In a deadly stable and if they bet, it will run well.
(4) Kaluakoi comes here off an Ipswich Cup win and is just a consistent horse who will race on speed and give a kick. Rock hard fit and in form obviously.
(11) Zibulon is a dead set two miler but that just means that it will be stronger than half of these late.
(4) Kaluakoi comes here off an Ipswich cup win and will be up on speed for a long way. Scratching’s have helped his cause.
Feel (7) So You Are and (9) Sun Worshipper are underrated and can be given thoughts for exotic players
Plenty of other chances in an open race.
Suggested Bet: No
Race 8:
Absolute lottery this!
(2) Cifrado is an old beauty and he has been excellent this prep. Forget the last run and go on the others this prep where he has savaged the line late. Very wide gate not ideal.
(5) Anemacore is very good on his day and feel 1400m at the sunny coast is perfect. Wet track over 1200m last start is a forgive and can bounce back.
(8) Gerringong was very good last start in the G1 Tiara and this looks a suitable target. Has been consistent all prep and may be in career best form.
(6) Cote Atlantique was plain last start but had been very good in all the Qld runs before that. Trialled in blinkers and looked sharp. They stay on here and could bounce back, can win.
I would have gone the other race with (21) Arabian Rose but she isn’t hopeless here. Light weight and turn of foot gives her some hope.
Suggested Bets: Small win bet (6) Cote Atlantique
Race 9:
(11) North Pole is a good 3 year old who finished last prep in career best form too. Won in good style to kick this prep off as well. Tactically versatile and still improving.
(2) Bengal Diamond has the ability to sit back and show a turn of foot but has raced well sitting closer this prep too. Flying at the moment but the big weight is my concern.
(3) Ouroboros can lead them for a long way. The last 50m is a query if it’s a fair track.
A few at odds can run a race, (13) Naval Trader, (14) Eclair Awesome and (16) Ocean Zar worth thoughts for exotics.
Suggested Bets: Not at the prices
