Summary of Best Bets:
Race 2 (5) Arabian Rose
Race 6 (10) Within The Law
Turf Talk:
- Rail True
- Wet to start the week but should be better by race day. Not too much rain but still cold weather and not ideal drying conditions.
- Sunshine Coast calls for strong horses, especially if rain affected.
Stats that matter:
- Matt Dunn has trained 9 winners from his last 50 runners and ROI +74.5%
- Michael Freedman has 10 winners from his last 50 runners and ROI +42.4%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(5) Out Of Turn has won 3 of his last 4 and is a nice type. Still upside left, takes a claim to help and is rock hard fit. Not a great gate.
Same story with (6) Ruins Of Rome and (7) Sultry Siren. Both have the ability to win here but they have drawn way out. Their hope will be the rail is off and it might not be too bad of a draw if that’s the case.
(19) Hellarious will roll forward and back to 1200m looks suitable to me. Thompson is a great booking and may be hard to get past late.
Everything says (3) Livalittle will need the run and further. Has a bit of class, so don’t be surprised if he runs better than most think.
Selections:
(5) Out Of Turn
(7) Sultry Siren
(19) Hellarious
(6) Ruins Of Rome
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
(6) Balance The Books has shown good ability and was a dominant winner at Ipswich against the pattern. Nice horse in the leading stable with upside. Gate looks sticky but may end up in the right part of the track.
(5) Arabian Rose is high quality. Forget last start where she failed on heavy ground and the win first up was breath-taking. She has won 4 of 6 on this home track and will take a stack of beating again here.
(13) Break Free is very consistent and still on the way up. Like the month between runs and does have a turn of foot.
Selections:
(5) Arabian Rose
(6) Balance The Books
(13) Break Free
(1) Pocket Full
(3) She’s Exotic
Suggested Bet: (5) Arabian Rose, the drier the better.
Race 3:
(7) Lady Of Five has always had exceptional speed so you’d expect her to win her recent trials. Also a chance she comes back a bit stronger and can be hard to run down here.
(13) Cascading was good on debut and tipped straight out. Has won recent trial in fashion and can run well.
(12) Another Champers only had the two runs last prep and showed enough. Really liked the latest trial and can be a better horse this preparation. Looks to have good upside.
(6) Fearless Win is another who has trialled well. Reckon it is an underrated type and is up to a race like this over 1000m.
(2) Areprice is better suited back to 1000m and is a consistent type. Don’t sell it short.
A heap of other chances in a very open race.
Selections:
(12) Another Champers
(7) Lady Of Five
(2) Areprice
(13) Cascading
(6) Fearless Win
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
The two at the top are the class horses but they are fillies having to give weight to the boys which is always tough.
(1).Foreign Press is a very good one but gates and other things have been costly this prep. Finds a winnable race but the big weight is a query for sure.
(2) Get Ready Lass is consistent and was a winner fresh last prep over this track/trip. Wide gate isn’t ideal but not the end of the world. Still hard to beat despite the weight.
(4) All Adore has been good and only beaten 2.1L in Listed grade last time out. Fair weight and expecting another good run even though she’s been up a long time.
(8) Hand In Hand joins Gollan from overseas and has trialled ok. Market the only guide.
(9) Jimmy’s Brother is lightly raced with upside and has Thompson on top.
Selections:
(2) Get Ready Lass
(1) Foreign Press
(4) All Adore
(9) Jimmy’s Brother
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (2) Get Ready Lass
Race 5:
Maher has (1) Epic Proportions and it surprises me to note he has a good record over this trip. Also a very good fresh record (4:2:2:0) and they should run along and he can finish off hard.
(2) Steady Ready is a real speedster and classy on his day. Has been consistent this prep and more than up to these on that recent form.
(14) Wanda Rox is a 1000m specialist. Has won or placed in 13 of 15 over this trip. Also runner up at both starts this track/trip.
(7) Nettuno is classy on his day but I have some massive trust issues with his consistency.
(15) Zouperb is an underrated type and can add value to exotics.
Selections:
(1), Epic Proportions
(2) Steady Ready
(14) Wanda Rox
(15) Zouperb
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
Always a handy race the Winx Guineas.
The toppy (1) Platinum Pantheon was excellent attacking the line from the back over 1200m two back. Last start over 1350m raced closer and just run over on the line.
(4) Kohler Kid was the one that run over the topweight last start and is a model of consistency. Should get the trip and be competitive again.
(10) Within The Law is one who is craving the mile and will be stronger than most of these the L200m. Been racing the A graders and comes here on the quick back up (has run well doing that before).
(11) Tupakara raced below what I expected last start when I was keen. Don’t want to say it can’t win here. Happy to forgive that run
Selections:
(10) Within The Law
(11) Tupakara
(4) Kohler Kid
(1) Platinum Pantheon
Suggested Bet: Win (10) Within The Law
Race 7:
Fair to say (5) Thebudgismugla looks to be the one on the way up. Has had a fair bit of racing this prep but comes here off a Listed 2400m win in Sydney. In a deadly stable and if they bet, it will run well.
(4) Kaluakoi comes here off an Ipswich Cup win and is just a consistent horse who will race on speed and give a kick. Rock hard fit and in form obviously.
(3) Pounding has been in work for five months and had 67 starts but just keeps running well. Runner up last three runs, they were at Listed, G2 and G3 level. Sure to be in the finish and hard to beat.
(2) Encoder is just a walking ATM for his owners. Continues to run well in these type of races and expecting the same again here.
(11) Zibulon is a dead set two miler but that just means that it will be stronger than half of these late.
Plenty of other chances in an open race.
Selections:
(5) Thebudgismugla
(3) Pounding
(11) Zibulon
(2) Encoder
(4) Kalouakoi
Suggested Bet: No
Race 8:
Absolute lottery this!
(3) Midnight Dynamite is airborne and this stable knows which horses to target up here. Has won 3 of his 4 runs this prep and the last one win was about the most impressive.
(2) Cifrado is an old beauty and he has been excellent this prep. Forget the last run and go on the others this prep where he has savaged the line late. Very wide gate not ideal.
(5) Anemacore is very good on his day and feel 1400m at the sunny coast is perfect. Wet tracl\k over 1200m last start is a forgive and can bounce back.
(8) Gerringong was very good last start in the G1 Tiara and this looks a suitable target. Has been consistent all prep and may be in career best form.
(6) Cote Atlantique was plain last start but had been very good in all the Qld runs before that. Trialled in blinkers and looked sharp. They stay on here and could bounce back, can win.
I haven’t been with (9) Soothsayer the last two wins and feel I’ve missed the boat. Looked very good at Ipswich and strong through line. There were a couple unlucky behind him though.
Selections:
(3) Midnight Dynamite
(6) Cote Atlantique
(8) Gerringong
(5) Anemacore
(2) Cifrado
Suggested Bets: Win bet (3) Midnight Dynamite and smaller (6) Cote Atlantique
Race 9:
(5) Silver Wedding is in the leading stable, has come back a better horse this time in and looks to find the right race. Big weight isn’t perfect but can still win. Big track is suitable.
(11) North Pole is a good 3yr old who finished last prep in career best form too. Won in good style to kick this prep off as well. Tactically versatile and still improving.
(2) Bengal Diamond has the ability to sit back and show a turn of foot but has raced well sitting closer this prep too. Flying at the moment but the big weight is my concern.
(3) Ouroboros can lead them for a long way. The last 50m is a query if it’s a fair track.
A few at odds can run a race, (13) Naval Trader, (14) Éclair Awesome and (16) Ocean Zar worth thoughts for exotics.
Selections:
(5) Silver Wedding
(11) North Pole
(2) Bengal Diamond
(3) Ouroboros
Suggested Bets: not at the prices
