Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the using their ratings system assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s Champions Mile.
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In The Lab | Champions Mile | Group 1 WFA 1600m
The track – unique features of Flemington course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Rail ?, Soft 5-6 Showers
- Lanes 3-7 perform best for all distances from 400m – finish
- Settling midfield with cover is the most profitable position in run
Speed map & tempo:
Expecting a fast tempo here with Pride Of Jenni running along:
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- Regular rider Tom Marquand gets back aboard Lake Forest
- Harry Coffey rides Steparty & James Mc Donald rides Leica Lucy for the first time
- Ethan Brown is winning at 11% POT from his last 100 rides
- Bjorn Baker & Ben Melham are returning a massive 490% POT from their last 100 races
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Champions Mile. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried, margin spread and race quality.
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Champions Mile:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win .
| Weight | Rating |
| 58.5kg | 110.5 |
| 56.5kg | 108.5 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below.
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price.
The verdict and betting strategy:
The last mile race of the carnival shapes up as an interesting contest with strong Sydney and Melbourne form leading in. There are four horses that have done the JTD (job to do previously), Mr Brightside (11), Ceolwulf (1), Pride Of Jenni (8) and Treasurethe Moment (1), Jenni was impressive last week when winning the Empire Rose Stakes. She like to roll along in front but will have some company today. Mr Brightside has been consistent this prep and will land in a lovely spot to keep Jenni honest – he will try his heart out again. Ceolwulf got the Cash in the King Charles III Stakes when the shades went on however that was a career peak for him – if he holds that high mark then he’s right in this.
Suggested Bet:
Mr Brightside (WIN)
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
