Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Crown Oaks using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s 3yo staying feature.
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In The Lab | Crown Oaks | Set weights 3yo Fillies Group 1 2500m
The track – unique features of Flemington 2500m course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Rail Out 6m, Soft 5
- Lanes 3-7 perform best for all distances from 400m – finish
- Settling midfield with cover is the most profitable position in run
- It’s a short run into the bend at the 2500m
Speed map & tempo:
Expecting a moderate tempo here over the staying trip:
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- James McDonald is riding The Pearls again
- Just A Journey has a new rider – Damian Lane
- Ciaron Maher is winning at 21% S/R with a ROI of 19.5% from his last 100 runners
- Mark Zahra is in top form with a ROI of 10.9% at 27% S/R
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Crown Oaks. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried, margin spread and race quality.
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 07/11/24 | Treasurethe Moment 3F | 56.0kg | 1.25L | 103.6 |
| 09/11/23 | Zardozi 3F | 56.0kg | 2.25L | 104.8 |
| 03/11/22 | She’s Extreme 3F | 56.0kg | 1.0L | 103.9 |
| 04/11/21 | Willowy 3F | 56.0kg | 0.2L | 103.3 |
| 05/11/20 | Personal 3F | 56.0kg | 1.25L | 104.5 |
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Crown Oaks:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win Thursday’s Crown Oaks.
| Weight | Rating |
| 56.0kg | 102.8 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below.
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price.
| Horse | Rated Price | Market |
| Getta Good Feeling | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| The Pearls | 10 | 8.5 |
| Spicy Lu | 14 | 10 |
| Just A Journey | 14 | 9.5 |
| Ethereum Girl | 34 | 20 |
| Sheeza Diva | 125 | 34 |
| Strictly Business | 7 | 10 |
| After Summer | 52 | 34 |
| Zouclaire | 461 | 81 |
| Voting Rights | 52 | 31 |
| Morisu Ojo | 300 | 81 |
| Classic Gem | 52 | 23 |
| Janey Bopper | 1001 | 151 |
The verdict and betting strategy:
The fillies line up in the $1m Crown Oaks. Getta Good Feeling was rock solid on-speed in the Wakeful and gets a cosy run here – she looks hard to beat. One horse that caught the eye was Strictly Business running the fastest closing 8/6/4 & 200m sectionals – the step up in distance should suit nicely and she looks to have some upside. The Pearls comes out of a strong Spring Champion Stakes and can give a sight here with J-Mac aboard. I’m happy to back the Wakeful form in here.
Suggested Bet:
Strictly Business (WIN)
Getta Good Feeling / Strictly Business (Quinella)
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
