In The Lab: 2025 Empire Rose Stakes

Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Group 1 Empire Rose using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s edition. 

To learn more about Racelab, please click here. 

In The Lab | Empire Rose Stakes | Group 1 WFA 1600m

The track – unique features of Flemington 1600m course, advantages PIR/barriers:

• Rail True, Good 4
• Lanes 3-7 perform best for all distances from 400m – finish
• Settling midfield with cover is the most profitable position in run

Speed map & tempo:

Expecting a fast tempo here with Pride Of Jenni racing to an uncontested lead:

Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:

• Tommy Berry has a strike rate of 24% and ROI of 37% from his last 100 rides
• Matthew Smith is returning 7.2% ROI from his last 100 runners
• Price & Kent Jnr combined with Jamie Melham boasting a POT of 32.5%
• Jamie Melham, Mark Zahra and Michael Dee all ride their respective chances for the first time (Abounding, Leica Lucy and Idle Flyer)

Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:

This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Empire Rose Stakes. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried, margin spread and race quality:

Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Empire Rose Stakes:

Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win Saturday’s Empire Rose Stakes.

The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below:

The ratings/market:

Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price:

The verdict and betting strategy:

A distinct lack of pace on paper so Jenni will find the front easily here. It’s an interesting race from both a ratings and conditions perspective. Under the set weight conditions, Jenni and Fangirl are the class runners and beautifully placed here with a handicap rating of 118. On performance ratings, Jenni and Fangirl have run the required ratings to win this race (Job To Do JTD) eighteen times combined (Jenni 10 and Fangirl 8). Fangirl runs her best ratings off slow tempos which won’t be happening here – she’s also yet to win a race with Jenni in. I can’t see Fangirl getting the race run to suit and for that reason I’m heavily against her. Pride of Jenni rated down last start but she did take a while to find the front so I’m prepared to forgive that run – she’s got some big ratings in the locker and can make amends. Leica Lucy kept coming last start in the Toorak and will enjoy the pace up front – has to be the main danger if Zahra can sort out the hanging. Idle Flyer was impressive winning the Angst Stakes but has to peak again to win this.

Suggested Bet:

Pride Of Jenni (WIN)

Legend: