In The Lab: 2025 Golden Eagle

Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the $10m Golden Eagle using their ratings system assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s edition.

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In The Lab | Golden Eagle | Set Weights 4yo 1500m

The track – unique features of Randwick 1500m course, advantages PIR/barriers:

Rail True, Soft 6
Inside barriers 1-3 are advantaged for on-pacers with a ROI of 7%
Lanes 5-7 have a win strike rate of 11.5% and ROI of 6.7%

Speed map & tempo:

Expecting a solid tempo here with plenty of on-pacers drawn out wide:

Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:

Dylan Gibbons is returning 25.6% ROI from his last 100 rides. He’s on Mayfair at $61 here
Cliff Brown has a healthy 25.7% ROI from his last 100 runners. He’s done a fantastic job with Sepals!
James Mc Donald is riding the favourite Autumn Glow again

Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:

This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Golden Eagle. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried. The rating is dependent on the WFA scale and factors in weight carried.

Date	Horse \| Age \| Sex	Weight	Margin	Racelab Rating
02/11/24	Lake Forest 3C	56.5kg	0.5L	108.4
04/11/23	Obamburumai 3C	56.5kg	0.2L	107.2
29/10/22	I Wish I Win 4G	57.5kg	0.1L	107.3
30/10/21	I’m Thunderstruck 4G	57.5kg	0.2L	109.4
31/10/20	Colette 4M	55.5kg	0.1L	107.9

Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Golden Eagle:

Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win Saturday’s Golden Eagle.

Weight	Rating
57.5kg	107.6
56.5kg	106.6
55.5kg	105.7
54.5kg	104.9

The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below.

The ratings/market:

Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price:

Horse	Rated Price	Market
Evaporate	12	10
Feroce	166	51
Linebacker	11	6
Sepals	34	20
Willydoit	58	23
Fully Lit	476	34
Depth Of Character	806	91
Lord Penman	476	61
Mayfair	806	81
Shangri La Spring	1000	91
Cristal Clear	1000	151
Panja Tower	7.5	7
Seagulls Eleven	59	26
Autumn Glow	1.7	2
Perfumist	36	17
Modella	1000	126

The verdict and betting strategy:

Sixteen runners line up to compete for $10M in the 2025 Golden Eagle. We should see a strong pace from the outset with speed coming from Fully Lit, Shangri La Spring and Cristal Clear all drawn out wide. Perfumist should be able to hold them out kicking up from barrier one. With a solid speed up front, the race should setup nicely for horses running on – both Autumn Glow and Panja Tower fit that profile. Autumn Glow was brilliant winning the Epsom and she gets in perfectly under set weight conditions as a mare. She looks mighty hard to beat and moved very well in her latest trial. Panja Tower brings strong ratings from Japan and will relish the distance. He will have some work to do in the run but posesses a big finish and is a huge danger to the favourite. Linebacker ran a peak rating of 107 in the Silver Eagle off a slow tempo and gets a nice map here. Not sure if he can run that rating again here with a more genuine pace.

Suggested Bet:

Autumn Glow (WIN)

Legend:

Name	Definition
Prime Rating	Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances
Job To Do (JTD)	The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance.