It may be a small, six-horse Makybe Diva Stakes, but it’s chock-full of quality. Having found Arabian Summer who ran a cracking race at a big price in last week’s Moir, Racelab’s ratings guru Matt Collum is back to cast his eye over Saturday’s feature Group 1.
Matt has broken down the speed map, likely track patterns and key stats, as well as providing the likely rating required to win Saturday’s race and finally identified the ‘value’ in the race.
The track: Flemington unique features of the course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Rail True, Good 4 (Wednesday) / Soft 5 likely.
- Historically inside barriers (1-3) are underperforming market expectations for all settling positions (Forward -29.1% ROI, Midfield -15.3%, Back -7.8%).
- Middle lanes 3-4 perform best with the rail in true showing a small POT of 1%.
- Getting cover in lanes away from the fence seems to be ideal.
Speed map & tempo:
Not much speed on paper and a race devoid of leaders, it looks like Mr Brightside should take up the running quite easily. Tom Kitten probably lands in the breeze and the rest will all slot in behind and take cover. Tactics will play a huge part in the small field but I think every runner should get a fair chance.
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- Craig Williams and Ben, Will & JD Hayes have an ROI of 8%
- James McDonald was booked to ride Aeliana but has elected to stick with Via Sistina
- Damian Lane is reunited with Aeliana. He rode her to victory in the ATC Australian Derby
- Tom Kitten is having his first run for Anthony and Sam Freedman
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Makybe Diva Stakes. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried. The rating is dependent on the WFA scale and factors in weight carried.
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 14/09/24 | Mr Brightside 7G | 59.0kg | 0.5L | 110.8 |
| 16/09/23 | Mr Brightside 6G | 59.0kg | 1.5L | 111.5 |
| 10/09/22 | I’m Thunderstruck 5G | 59.0kg | 0.1L | 111.5 |
| 11/09/21 | Incentivise 5G | 59.0kg | 0.3L | 110.6 |
| 12/09/20 | Fierce Impact 6H | 59.0kg | 0.2L | 110.5 |
Looking at historical performances in the Makybe Diva Stakes it’s quite evident that the boys dominate the winners list. Southern Speed was the last mare to win in 2012 and Saleous in 1996, all the other winners are males.
With Via Sistina and Aeliana (both mares) dominating the betting market and females having a very poor overall record here, we are certainly getting good odds to be against them.
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win Saturday’s Makybe Diva Stakes.
| Weight | Rating |
| 59kg | 110.5 |
| 57kg | 108.5 |
| 56.5kg | 108.0 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below. This is the rating the Racelab team predict each runner can achieve in Saturday’s Makybe Diva Stakes.
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price (Antino).
| Runner | Racelab Rated Price | Current Market as at Wednesday 3pm |
| Mr Brightside | $8 | $6 |
| Tom Kitten | $12 | $11 |
| Antino | $4.8 | $7.5 |
| Mark Twain | $261 | $126 |
| Via Sistina | $2.7 | $2 |
| Aeliana | $4.7 | $3.9 |
Mr Brightside: Was honest again in the Memsie first up and ran a nice second (rating 109) . He did get the perfect run throughout there and may not love leading here. Has to be in the mix.
Tom Kitten: Resumes for a new stable off a handy trial. The small field suits but has a task to run a strong mile fresh.
Antino: Had no luck first up sitting wide in a fast pace and wasn’t beaten all that far. Gets out to a mile now and will enjoy the small field as well. Ran 114 in the Toorak which is the best rating over this distance range. Looks set to run a big race.
Mark Twain: NZ visitor kicking off his Australian spring campaign. Needs a new career peak and will be better over further.
Via Sistina: Champion mare who defied a betting drift to win the Winx Stakes first up. Randwick was a Heavy 10 that day and coming to a firmer surface doesn’t look ideal but she will take beating.
Aeliana: Ran 106 in the Winx Stakes after being slow out and is suited out to 1600m. Also coming from a heavy track and she seems short enough.
The verdict:
Antino has proven himself as a genuine top G1 WFA performer. Four out of his last seven rating figures are strong enough to win this race. He ticks a lot of boxes and represents good value at $7.50.
Suggested Bet:
Antino (Win)
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight carried, Mean weight and Distance. |
