Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Northerly Stakes using their ratings system assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s Northerly Stakes.
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In The Lab | Northerly Stakes | Group 1 WFA 1800m
The track – unique features of Ascot course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Rail true, Soft 5. Good 4 likely. Weather fine
- Lanes 2-4 perform best for all distances from 400m – finish
- Settling on speed is the most profitable position in run
Speed map & tempo:
Expecting a moderate tempo here:
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- Nash Rawiller is winning at 16% POT. He rides Watch Me Rock here
- Grant & Alana Williams combined with Billy Egan are winning at a massive 103% POT
- Michael Grantham & C J Porter are returning a POT of 15.6%
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Crown Oaks. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried, margin spread and race quality.
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 07/12/24 | Light Infantry Man 5G | 59.0kg | 0.7L | 107.2 |
| 09/12/23 | Dom To Shoot 6G | 59.0kg | 0.1L | 107.1 |
| 03/12/22 | Amelia’s Jewel 3F | 50.0kg | 1.0L | 100.5 |
| 05/12/21 | Regal Power 6G | 59.0kg | 0.5L | 107.3 |
| 07/12/20 | Truly Great 5G | 59.0kg | 1.8L | 108.3 |
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Northerly Stakes:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win .
| Weight | Rating |
| 59.0kg | 107.3 |
| 58.5kg | 106.8 |
| 57.0kg | 105.2 |
| 52.0kg | 100.9 |
| 50.0kg | 99.3 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below.
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price.
The verdict and betting strategy:
Not a great deal of speed here in the Northerly Stakes. I think Nash has to push forward on Watch Me Rock from the wide gate and chance his arm. King Of Light won the WA Guineas in impressive fashion and drops a further 5kg here under WFA conditions. This is his toughest test to date and the market hasn’t missed him early. Cosmic Crusader bolted in the WA Stakes over 1400 and maps to get a lovely run on speed. The 1800m trip shouldn’t be a problem considering that he won over 1650 by 8.5L second up this prep. He represents good value at the price. There are a few other interstate chances that can run a race at odds but aren’t worth a bet at this stage.
Suggested Bet:
Cosmic Crusader (WIN)
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
