In The Lab: 2025 W.A. Guineas

Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the W.A. Guineas using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s race.

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In The Lab | W.A. Guineas |  Group 2 set weights 3yo 1600m

The track – unique features of Ascot course, advantages PIR/barriers:

• Rail Out 5m, Soft 5
• Lanes 2-4 perform best for all distances from 400m – finish
• Settling on speed is the most profitable position in run

Speed map & tempo:

Expecting a moderate tempo here over the mile:

Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:

• Ashley Maley is performing above market expectations with a ROI of 24.9%
• Grant & Alana Williams combined with Fred Kersley are winning at 33.3% with a ROI of 164%

Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:

This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the W.A. Guineas. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried, margin spread and race quality.

Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the W.A. Guineas:

Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win .

The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below.

The ratings/market:

Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price.

The verdict and betting strategy:

The 3yos battle it out over the mile in the W.A Guineas. Looking at the lead up form I have to think that the Fairetha Stakes appears the strongest guide. Three horses that stood out from that race were King Of Light, Heeza Phoenix and Rock Fest – respectively finishing 1-2-3. King Of Light had the softest run from gate 1 paired with a perfect steer from Pike. Heeza Phoenix looked the winner and was gunned down in the shadows. He looked to scoot along a bit too quickly in front and can control the pace at a more suitable speed here. Rock Fest gave every indication he’s looking for further and his sectionals were outstanding! He ran the fastest closing splits out of the Fairetha and will be running out the distance powerfully. Happy to work around the favourite here with Heeza Phoenix and Rock Fest.

Suggested Bet:

Heeza Phoenix (WIN fixed)
Rock Fest (WIN Top Fluc)

Legend: