In The Lab: Turnbull Stakes

The track – what to keep in mind over the 2000m course at Flemington this Saturday

• Rail +9m entire circuit
• Forecast for warm, overcast temperatures
• Northerly breeze that is not expected to get beyond 25km/h and therefore not factor a whole heap early on
• Flemington is the best all-around track in terms of position in run. The ideal position in run for this weekend I’m expecting to be stalking the pace with cover

Speed map & tempo:

Intent as always will dictate map and tempo. Turnbull is a ‘prelim final’ for most of these so perhaps we can expect them to run closer to game day pattern than earlier in their respective preps.

I expect the tempo here to be not much more than moderate and will likely need a horse like Land Legend getting keen early and rolling forward to put some more pressure into it for it to be a true gallop.

Fascinated to see how the market treats the runners coming out of the well publicised Group 1 barrier trial last start. They’re too good to pen completely but there must be some caution. Perhaps relying more on the starting prices from that day is a simple way to piece it together.

My map using Punting Form speed map tool noted below. Most advantaged runners are Aeliana, Sir Delius and Half Yours.

Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:

• James McDonald sticks with Via Sistina after Waller’s ‘Captains Call’
• Jamie Melham sticks with Half Yours and as a result Zardozi will be ridden by Harry Coffey which the market will view as a negative
• Jye McNeil 6% strike rate and -54% POT riding for Chris Waller last 100 runners
• P Stokes stable striking at 22% last 100 runners at 21.6% POT
• Damian Lane 18% strike rate when riding for Waller last 100. He will be hoping to keep the ride on Aeliana for the spring.

Recent Turnbull Stakes winners and their Racelab Performance Rating:

A 4YO hasn’t won the Turnbull since 2015 when Preferment won for Hugh Bowman and Chris Waller.

Interestingly, four double-figure winners have saluted over that period as well.

Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Turnbull Stakes:

Fairly unique weight condition of Set Weights and Penalties for the Turnbull Stakes. We don’t see many of these and there are important wrinkles for punters to be aware of as this group of horses often race under standard WFA conditions.

Aeliana with 55kg will need to do ~107.3

Via Sistina carrying the full mares penalty will need to do ~109.4

In this case Aeliana meets Via Sistina 1.5kg better off from their clash in the Makybe Diva Stakes

Antino as the topweight will need a Racelab rating of ~111.1, a mark he has reached twice before

5YO gelding Half Yours gets 3kg off Antino under the conditions and subsequently his ‘job to do’ is only 108.4

The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below:

A few of these are capable of higher if they get tempo to suit including both of Waller’s star mares. Sir Delius racing style deserves respect and he only needs to hold his last start rating to be right in the mix.

The ratings/market:

Hunt the best odds using Betsy’s Odds Grid

The verdict and betting strategy:

Cracking race!

She’s the most likely winner however I would surprised if Via Sistina doesn’t drift from her current quote. Antino will improve third-up but giving them weight here I think he will actually better suited on Grand Final day at Moonee Valley. Land Legend needs a handicap but is talented enough to watch closely for Cups runs.

Sir Delius comes through an odd race however his racing style should be suited here I just struggled to get him short enough against Waller’s mares who are well clear of the job to do. Aeliana maps sweet and gets a little weight pull on the champ while Zardozi gets to what I think is her best track and distance. Will need luck on the pegs but can run a cheeky race.

Be wary the horse on the upward spiral…. Half Yours comes through a hot race and was dominant to the eye and on the clock. Will receive no penalty for winning this and should get a lovely run. Big class rise no doubt, so only a small bet. Confident he is the one to be with heading to the Caulfield Cup.

Suggested Bet:

Small bet Half Yours, monitoring market on Aeliana. Zardozi can outrun her price for exotic players.

Legend: