Meet the internationals: Racelab rates the Cup contenders chasing Australia’s riches

Racelab’s Matt Collum runs the rule over the international raiders, identifying the leading chances, potential value runners and those worth taking on ahead of the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.

With the Caulfield Cup just around the corner and the Melbourne Cup fast approaching, attention turns to the international contingent hoping to make their mark on Australia’s biggest staying races.

Racelab’s Matt Collum has assessed the overseas contenders using Racelab’s ratings system, weighing up their recent performances, handicap weights and likely suitability to Australian conditions.

The analysis identifies Wine Dark Sea as a leading Caulfield Cup contender, while several of Joseph O’Brien’s runners feature prominently among the Melbourne Cup hopes.

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Please note: The likely race targets listed below are indicative only and based on currently available information. Plans may change depending on connections’ decisions, fitness, form, ballot positions and track conditions. They should not be considered definitive. Prices and handicap weights are those supplied at the time of analysis and are subject to change.

First shipment: Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup contenders

1. Wine Dark Sea (GB) | Racelab rating: 113

Trainer: Harry Charlton
Profile: 5yo gelding | 10 starts: 4 wins, 2 seconds
Recent form: 151
Likely targets: Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup

$10 Caulfield Cup 54.5kg – JTD 108.6
$18 Melbourne Cup 56kg – JTD 111.5

Wine Dark Sea has continued to improve throughout the season and arrives in Australia off an impressive Group 3 victory over 1m5½f at Newbury on 15 August. He had earlier posted handicap wins at Ascot and Carlisle, with a lesser effort when favourite at Newmarket, but his latest success confirmed his affinity with a staying trip.

His last two wins rate well enough to win the Caulfield Cup, rating 112 at Carlisle (winning by 13 lengths!) and 110 at Newbury. A progressive stayer who appears to have more to offer, he shapes as our top pick for the Caulfield Cup!

2. Enfjaar (IRE) | Racelab rating: 112

Trainer: Roger Varian
Profile: 7yo gelding | 16 starts: 5 wins, 2 seconds, 2 thirds
Recent form: 381
Likely targets: Caulfield Cup, Melbourne Cup or Champions Stakes

$11 Caulfield Cup 54.5kg – JTD 108.6
$51 Melbourne Cup 56kg – JTD 111.5

Enfjaar arrives in Melbourne off an encouraging Group 3 victory at Goodwood over 1m4f, where he defeated Opportunity and Al Aasy. That followed an unplaced effort in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot, having earlier finished third at Goodwood. His latest win was a significant return to form and suggested he is back at his best.

The key question now is whether he can extend his class and stamina to the demands of Cup distance, but at his peak he has shown enough ability to make him a contender in the Caulfield Cup. Prepared to risk him in the Melbourne Cup at this stage.

3. Starford (IRE) | Racelab rating: 111

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Profile: 5yo gelding | 12 starts: 4 wins, 1 second, 1 third
Recent form: 163
Likely targets: Caulfield Cup, Melbourne Cup or Champions Stakes

$21 Caulfield Cup 53.5kg – JTD 107.3
$101 Melbourne Cup 55kg – JTD 110.2

Starford began his 2026 campaign in impressive fashion with a Group 3 victory at the Curragh, before finishing sixth in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes at Chester and then third at Roscommon over 1m4f.

He has shown plenty of ability, although his recent form is not as strong as some of his rivals and his stamina beyond 1m4f remains unproven. If the rain comes at Caulfield, he’s a sneaky hope over the trip, but still needs to improve.

4. Point of Law (GB) | Racelab rating: 107

Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Profile: 4yo colt | 4 starts: 2 wins, 1 second
Recent form: 141
Likely targets: Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup

$21 Caulfield Cup 51kg – JTD 104.6
$34 Melbourne Cup 51kg – JTD 105.3

Point of Law has only had a handful of starts and has shown steady progression. After finishing second on debut, he won at Newbury before running fourth in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. He then produced his best performance to date with a Group 3 win over 1m5f at Newmarket in July.

A lightly raced Northern Hemisphere three-year-old by Frankel, he has plenty of upside and looks bred to stay. One of the more interesting upside runners in the group for the in-form Maher stable. His upward ratings profile of 102 and 103 at his last two runs makes him a serious player with a lightweight.

5. Omni Man (IRE) | Racelab rating: 106

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Profile: 5yo gelding | 13 starts: 2 wins, 1 second, 4 thirds
Recent form: 543
Likely targets: Caulfield Cup, Geelong Cup or Melbourne Cup

$21 Caulfield Cup 51kg – JTD 104.6
$101 Melbourne Cup 51kg – JTD 105.3

Omni Man hasn’t quite hit the heights of some of his stablemates this year, finishing fifth at Ascot, fourth at Leopardstown and most recently third at the Curragh. His latest effort was only 7¼ lengths from the winner and came over 1m2f, so there is scope for improvement with a step up in distance.

His rating of 106 leaves him with plenty to find. An outsider who needs to improve sharply, although Joseph O’Brien knows how to prepare a stayer.

6. Kizlyar (IRE) | Racelab rating: 106

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Profile: 5yo gelding | 10 starts: 3 wins, 2 seconds, 2 thirds
Recent form: 11×2
Likely targets: Caulfield Cup, Geelong Cup, Moonee Valley Cup or Melbourne Cup

$51 Caulfield Cup 52kg – JTD 105.7
$34 Melbourne Cup 53.5kg – JTD 108.2

Kizlyar has a very interesting staying profile. He caused a major upset at 25/1 in the Ascot Stakes over 2m3f, defeating Defiantly by a head, before finishing second in the Irish St Leger Trial over 1m6f.

That Ascot win is arguably the strongest piece of evidence for his Melbourne Cup credentials. He stays extremely well, but has to improve from a peak rating of 104. One of the more intriguing roughies.

7. Small Fry (IRE) | Racelab rating: 103

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Profile: 6yo gelding | 24 starts: 6 wins, 5 seconds, 4 thirds
Recent form: 621
Likely targets: Geelong Cup and Melbourne Cup

$34 Melbourne Cup 51.5kg – JTD 105.8

Small Fry is coming off a particularly encouraging preparation. He finished second to Hopewell Rock at Goodwood over 1m6f, then reversed the result when winning the 2m handicap at York.

Earlier, he had finished sixth in the Ascot Stakes, but he has clearly improved with racing and distance. His rating is modest compared with the topweights, but his recent staying form is excellent. A genuine lightweight chance who is proven over the distance.

Second shipment: Melbourne Cup contenders

8. Sons And Lovers (GB) | Racelab rating: 114

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Profile: 6yo gelding | 19 starts: 4 wins, 2 seconds, 5 thirds
Recent form: 51×2
Likely target: Melbourne Cup

$21 Melbourne Cup 57.5kg – JTD 113

Sons And Lovers has arguably put together one of the strongest staying preparations in this group. He won the Group 2 Prix Maurice de Nieuil over 1m6f at Longchamp, then finished second in the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown. Before that, he had run fifth in the Hardwicke Stakes.

Joseph O’Brien has described him as being in career-best form and believes the step up in distance will suit. With a peak rating of 109, he’s weighted poorly and must find a new peak to win the Melbourne Cup. Pass at this stage.

9. Trustyourinstinct (IRE) | Racelab rating: 113

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Profile: 7yo gelding | 25 starts: 9 wins, 6 seconds, 3 thirds
Recent form: 214
Likely target: Melbourne Cup

$15 Melbourne Cup 57kg – JTD 112.6

Trustyourinstinct has had a superb 2026. He won at Gowran Park, finished second in a Group 3, then won the Curragh Cup over 1m6f before finishing fourth in the Irish St Leger.

His recent Group 1 fourth was only 4½ lengths from the winner and came against strong opposition. He possesses a sharp finishing burst and has already proven himself at the required staying trips. With a peak rating of 112, he’s a serious contender in the Melbourne Cup.

10. Defiantly (FR) | Racelab rating: 113

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Profile: 5yo gelding | 9 starts: 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third
Recent form: 211
Likely target: Melbourne Cup

$9 Melbourne Cup 56.5kg – JTD 112

Defiantly has transformed himself into a genuine stayer this year. He was second to Kizlyar in the Ascot Stakes, then won the 2m4½f Goodwood Handicap before taking the Group 2 Prix Kergorlay at Deauville over 1m7f.

That Group 2 victory is a significant piece of form and explains his rise in the ratings. He’s managed a soft lead with no tempo in his last two wins, which won’t happen at Flemington. A proven stayer, but he’s very one-paced, which doesn’t profile well for the Melbourne Cup. He’s under the odds.

11. James J Braddock (GB) | Racelab rating: 111

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Profile: 4yo colt | 7 starts: 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third
Recent form: 36×6
Likely target: Melbourne Cup

$13 Melbourne Cup 53.5kg – JTD 108.2

James J Braddock was one of the more exciting three-year-olds earlier in the season, winning the Group 3 Derby Trial at Leopardstown before running a fine third in the Epsom Derby.

However, he disappointed in the Irish Derby and again finished only sixth in the Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown in September. The talent is obvious and Craig Williams is booked to ride. He’s certainly in the mix with a 106 rating on the board at his fourth start. Big danger!

12. Goodie Two Shoes (IRE) | Racelab rating: 109

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Profile: 8yo mare | 23 starts: 8 wins, 2 seconds, 5 thirds
Recent form: 210
Likely target: Melbourne Cup

$34 Melbourne Cup 55kg – JTD 110.2

Goodie Two Shoes is an experienced staying mare who has already shown she can compete at the highest level, finishing second in the 2025 Melbourne Cup.

This year she won the Group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes over 1m6f and then finished a disappointing tenth at Leopardstown. That latest run is the obvious concern, but her previous form is excellent and she has proven she handles Flemington.

She ran a 107 last year with 51.5kg and has a much tougher task this time around with 55kg. Looking elsewhere.

13. Hopewell Rock (IRE) | Racelab rating: 109

Trainer: George Boughey
Profile: 5yo gelding | 10 starts: 3 wins, 3 seconds, 2 thirds
Recent form: 612
Likely target: Melbourne Cup

$21 Melbourne Cup 55kg – JTD 109.5

Hopewell Rock has been one of the more progressive staying handicappers in Britain. He won over 1m6f at Goodwood and then finished a close second in the Ebor over 1m5f at York, beaten only a head.

That latest run is particularly encouraging because he demonstrated that he can sustain his effort in a big field. A progressive horse who should be considered coming off ratings of 105 and 106.

14. Stinger Glass (JPN) | Racelab rating: 113

Trainer: Yasuo Tomomichi
Profile: 6yo entire | 12 starts: 6 wins, 2 seconds
Recent form: 2x1x0
Likely target: Melbourne Cup

$15 Melbourne Cup 57kg – JTD 112.6

Stinger Glass has an excellent overall Japanese record and won the Group 3 Diamond Stakes over 3400m earlier this year. He also finished second in the Group 2 Copa Republica Argentina and won the Sapporo Nikkei Sho over 2600m.

However, his latest run was a disappointing 13th in the Takarazuka Kinen, where he was well beaten. He has the stamina and international class, but the latest run is a concern.

A fascinating wildcard. His Japanese staying form makes him dangerous if he rebounds, although he will need to improve from his peak rating of 107 to give this a shake.

Racelab’s key takeaways

Racelab ratings, prices, weights and JTD figures have been retained as supplied. Race targets are indicative only.