Summary of Best Bets
Race 1: (3) Hell Or Heaven
Race 7: Split bets, (4) Rhuvaal and (9) Lynehem
Turf Talk
- Rail 10m.
- Rail out this far and rain early in the week may make it easy for the front-runners and those mapping on speed.
- Always wait and see, but that is what I expect.
Key stats:
- These are easy, a couple are airborne at the moment.
- Ben Thompson has 13 winners from his last 50 runners and ROI +97%. Flying!
- Tony Gollan had not been going great but has had six winners from his last 13 and timed the carnival beautifully.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(3) Hell Or Heaven had trialled well but the price on debut in town was poison. Picked up late and I thought the effort was very good. Second-best last 200m and will improve lengths from the experience. Thompson on for Schweida and both are going well.
(2) Girmay was just okay on debut but it was in a Saturday race too. Freshened up since then and a tick-over trial. Another who can improve this time in.
(7) Saxon Spirit was very good in a handy race on debut too. Strong through the line and a huge chance in this. Has ability and will win plenty of races.
Just watch the market with the first starters.
Selections:
(3) Hell Or Heaven
(7) Saxon Spirit
(2) Girmay
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (3) Hell Or Heaven
Race 2
(2) Disparate had decent form down south and will find it easier up here. Loved the most recent trial at the coast and won’t be a maiden long.
(3) Riez Souvant is way better than maiden grade and is another who can win many races in Qld if they stay here. Trials have been good in Sydney and well placed by Waller.
I don’t know what to do with (5) Urban Lad. Was hard in the market at only start last prep but ran last and can’t find a reason. Won a trial by 7.5L leading into this and looked brilliant.
(7) Aristocratic Girl the next best.
Selections:
(3) Riez Souvant
(2) Disparate
(5) Urban Lad
(7) Aristocratic Girl
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
No stars here.
The fourth at Wyong for (7) Balmoral Castle might be all it takes to win here. In the Maher camp and fitter now. Need to use the gate to land midfield or better here.
(9) Sheza’s Destiny had the one run last prep and then changed stables. Trial at Deagon was okay and should be up on speed.
I don’t know what to do with (12) Urban Lad. Was hard in the market at only start last prep but ran last and can’t find a reason. Won a trial by 7.5L leading into this and looked brilliant.
Not a race that interests me to be honest.
Selections:
(12) Urban Lad
(7) Balmoral Castle
(9) Sheza’s Destiny
Suggested Bet: Win (12) Urban Lad
Race 4
(4) Shot Of Whiskey is a nice on-speed horse but can just be a little weak late and that’s cost him a few races. If the cut is out of the track it will only help. His best can win for sure.
(5) Concession was excellent two back at the coast and bolted in there. Runner-up last start but was stronger through the line than Shot Of Whiskey there too.
(6) Fragile Love comes through the better races and has been good too. Likely to get back though and needs a fair track to run them down. If they are making ground, she can win.
(3) Lost His Beans, (7) Click Click Boom and (9) Jungle Law are all genuine place chances.
Selections:
(5) Concession
(4) Shot Of Whiskey
(6) Fragile Love
(7) Click Click Boom
Suggested Bet: Win (5) Concession
Race 5
(4) Boom Shot is a frustrating non-winner. He has good ability and that’s the frustration. A closing second last start and this looks more than winnable for him. Just three wins from 25 though.
(5) Captain Maverick caught the eye late last start. May want further but with any luck in running he can beat them.
(6) Kairos Louie has not been at his best but he is a horse who can put in a spike performance and run well at big odds. Don’t sell him short.
(7) Worthy Enuff started the prep great but was just a pass mark last start. It was open 3YO grade in town though. Good gate and Jones helps.
(8) Captain Eagle can give them a fright here. Will be on speed, go for home and will hold them off for a while.
Watch the market with (10) November Air. Qld runs have been okay and might still be improving.
Selections:
(8) Captain Eagle
(5) Captain Maverick
(4) Boom Shot
(7) Worthy Enuff
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
Well, (1) Mercurial Lady looked incredibly well placed last start. Got the run of the race and although the run was okay, had every possible chance.
In the same race, (2) Pocketmoney and (3) Acapulco Girl had no luck and should have finished much closer. Both of them genuine chances here with a bit more luck in running.
(4) Easy Love is lightly raced and has upside. May need the run but respect any money with this stable.
(6) Divine Source is the one who gets the favours on speed if it’s a leader bias. Rock-hard fit off the mile run and back to this is more suitable.
Heaps of others in form and many chances.
Selections:
(3) Acapulco Girl
(6) Divine Source
(2) Pocketmoney
(1) Mercurial Lady
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
A lot depends on how this track is playing.
Everything says (4) Rhuvaal will need the run but from the gate I would not be surprised to see Thompson give him a 10/10 and run over them late. Doesn’t win often but has some class.
(6) Stranglehold has been good since the change of stables and was a solid winner with blinkers on at the coast. This is harder but gets a gate and a hope again.
(5) San Gabriel is good on his day but the wide draw and first-up run are a little query.
I thought they’d have gone on a Guineas path with (9) Lynehem but doesn’t look that way now. Might stick to the little fish and work their way through the grades. Has really nice upside and could win without surprising.
Selections:
(4) Rhuvaal
(9) Lynehem
(6) Stranglehold
(5) San Gabriel
Suggested Bet: Win bets (4) Rhuvaal and (9) Lynehem
