Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Group 1 races at Royal Ascot using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s big races.
Matt has been in fine style this week tipping three of the five Group 1 winners, including Mission Central at 14/1!
To learn more about Racelab, please click here.
Australian hopes in Saturday’s Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes rest largely with Joliestar, and if the numbers from Racelab are any guide, the Chris Waller-trained mare has every right to be at the pointy end of the market.
The six-furlong feature has become one of Royal Ascot’s premier sprint contests and last year’s edition produced a performance familiar to Australian racing fans. Winner Lazzat returned later in the year to run a huge race in the Golden Eagle, posting a Racelab rating of 112 when holding off Japanese star Satono Reve, who again lines up this year after another outstanding campaign in Asia behind sprinting sensation Ka Ying Rising.
According to Racelab’s modelling, will need a rating of 109.1 (taking into account mares allowance) to win this year’s Jubilee Stakes.
That benchmark holds little fear for Joliestar.
The daughter of Zoustar produced figures above that mark at each of her final two starts during the autumn carnival, suggesting she arrives in England with the necessary form credentials to be highly competitive.
Joliestar’s career Racelab Ratings and how they stack up vs the likely figure required to win on Saturday:
The James McDonald factor also looms large. The champion jockey has partnered Joliestar to seven victories and has produced a race-winning Jubilee Stakes rating on four of those occasions.
Fitness should not be a major concern despite the mare entering the race first-up. Joliestar resumes after a 77-day break, but she has already won five races in her career when returning from spells of 45 days or longer. If there is one minor query, it is that she did not travel over earlier in the European season for a lead-up run and arrives here without the benefit of a recent conditioning race.
Still, her best performances have come on expansive circuits such as Randwick, Flemington and Eagle Farm, suggesting the wide-open expanses of Ascot should suit perfectly.
WATCH: Joliestar win the TJ Smith at her last start
With the benefit of the mares’ allowance, Racelab’s assessment is that a peak Joliestar performance gives her an edge over both Satono Reve and fellow Australian contender Overpass.
McDonald is no stranger to Ascot’s famous straight course and Waller’s record on racing’s biggest stages is second to none.
At around $2.90 in early betting, the mare appears fairly priced.
Overpass Faces Different Challenge
The Bjorn Baker-trained Overpass backs up after his brave performance earlier in the week and has attracted significant market support, firming from around $16 into $9.
However, the profile raises some concerns.
Historically, Overpass has been at his best when produced fresh. In fact, you need to go all the way back to his first racing preparation in 2021 to find a victory that came without at least 21 days between runs.
While he has consistently performed at a high level throughout his career, the Racelab benchmark presents another challenge. The required figure of 110.5 has only been achieved once by Overpass, when he produced a career-best effort finishing second behind Briasa in the TJ Smith Stakes.
Given his preference for racing fresh and the limited margin between his current price and historical ratings profile, Racelab believes there is little value remaining in the market.
Racelab Verdict
Joliestar profiles as the runner most likely to produce the performance required to win the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes. Her recent ratings stack up, the Ascot circuit should suit, and the mares’ allowance could prove decisive.
Overpass is respected but appears to face a tougher assignment backing up quickly, while Satono Reve again shapes as a major danger after his outstanding performances against elite international sprint opposition.
Suggested bet: Joliestar (WIN)
WATCH: Satono Reve chasing Ka Ying Rising
